July 11-17, 2024 | Issue 28 - EUCOM and AFRICOM Teams
Jayde Dorland, Leon Kille, William Adams, Gabriel Helupka, Jennifer Radlinsky, Giulia Filomia, Meaghan Mackey
Jessica Wilson, Editor; Radhika Venkatachalam, Senior Editor
Cargo Ship at Sea[1]
Date: July 11, 2024
Location: Reni City, Ukraine
Parties involved: Ukraine; Security Service of Ukraine (SBU); the head of Ukraine's prosecutor's office for Crimea Ihor Ponochovny; unnamed USKO MFU captain and crew members; Russia; Turkish shipping company Iyem Asya; unnamed Iyem Asya official; Moldova; Cameroon; UN specialized agency responsible for regulating maritime transport International Maritime Organization (IMO); international humanitarian organizations
The event: Ukrainian officials seize a Cameroonian-flagged cargo vessel and detain its captain and 12 crew members, suspecting their participation in Russia's exportation of stolen Ukrainian grain from Crimea. The SBU claims the vessel, USKO MFU, which Ukraine seized as it entered Reni’s waters on the Danube River, repeatedly docks at Crimea’s Sevastopol seaport to receive agricultural products. Ponochovny states that ships involved in illicit trade usually avoid Ukrainian waters to evade detection and highlights how the seizure should be a “clear signal” that Ukraine will hold the countries involved responsible.[2] An Iyem Asya official denies the SBU’s claims and declares the USKO MFU has taken no cargo from occupied Ukrainian territories since being under the company’s ownership and that the current cargo originates from Moldova.[3]
Analysis & Implications:
Ukraine’s seizure of an internationally-flagged cargo vessel will likely lead regional shipping companies to implement stricter vessel tracking measures and monitoring to mitigate operational and economic risks. Shipping companies will likely consider rerouting vessels away from Ukrainian waters to avoid allegations of illicit grain trade involvement and seizures, which has a roughly even chance of increasing tracking costs and transit times impacting Black Sea maritime trade profitability. The IMO will likely liaise with shipping companies and other key commercial stakeholders to issue guidance on enhancing vessel tracking, monitoring practices, and ensuring legal compliance relating to grain transportation in Ukraine's disputed maritime zones.
Russia is likely seeking to weaken Ukraine’s agricultural sector, very likely attempting to generate revenue to cover war expenses. Russia will likely attempt to build new alliances with countries by delivering Ukrainian grain as their own, with a roughly even chance of gaining diplomatic support and military cooperation. Ukrainian grain losses from Crimea as well as farmland destruction and abandonment across south and east Ukraine's frontlines will very likely exacerbate food insecurity among the Ukrainian population. Ukraine will likely renew calls for a regional grain deal to support its agricultural sector, mitigate Russian profiteering from illegal grain trade, and ensure the safety and legitimacy of grain exports from internationally-flagged cargo vessels.
Date: July 14, 2024
Location: Mogadishu, Somalia
Parties involved: Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud; Somalia; Federal Government of Somalia (FGS); Somali security forces; Somali National Army (SNA); elite special forces unit in the SNA Danab Infantry Brigade; Somali civilians; Sunni Islamic Al-Qaeda affiliate group al-Shabaab; African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS)
The event: A car bomb detonates outside a cafe while spectators inside watch the 2024 UEFA European Football Championship final.[4] The explosion kills nine, injures 20, and causes damage to surrounding buildings and vehicles. Al-Shabaab claims the attack, targeting the cafe because government officials and security workers frequent it at nighttime.[5] Al-Shabaab opposes the FGS and intends to rid the country of foreign and peacekeeping forces in favor of a “Greater Somalia” under Islamic rule.[6] The FGS under Mohamud has fought a “total war” against al-Shabaab since 2022 to prevent such terrorist attacks.[7]
Analysis & Implications:
FGS security forces, such as the SNA, will very likely conduct a retaliatory attack against al-Shabaab's strategic positions outside of Mogadishu. There is a roughly even chance that the retaliation will target al-Shabaab's positions in the Lower Shabelle region, likely temporarily reducing the group's presence and allowing the SNA to mitigate targeted attacks on regional government-backed security forces like the Danab Infantry Brigade. The SNA will very likely use airstrikes to carry out the retaliation, with a roughly even chance of employing ground troops in the offensive.
The attack will very likely instill fear in Somali citizens, likely decreasing residents’ trust and cooperation with local security forces. Al-Shabaab will very likely exploit the Somalis’ distrust of security forces, likely attempting to radicalize and recruit citizens. The group will likely use disillusioned Somalis to infiltrate the government positions of power, and track and surveil security forces, likely enhancing the latter's offensive preparations.
Al-Shabaab will very likely conduct further attacks within Mogadishu and surrounding Hirshabelle State as ATMIS troops continue to withdraw from Somalia by the end of 2024. Withdrawing security forces will very likely allow al-Shabaab to exploit its control over the supply routes into Mogadishu, likely gaining better access to the capital and increasing its revenue flow through stolen goods. Decreasing ATMIS forces protecting government facilities and key checkpoints throughout the region will very likely enable al-Shabaab to gain a strategic advantage over Somali government forces. The SNA and local security forces will very likely struggle to fulfill new responsibilities and simultaneously continue their offensive against al-Shabaab.
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[1] Cargo Ship at Sea, generated by a third party database
[2] Ukraine seizes cargo ship, detains captain for exporting 'looted' grain, Reuters, July 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-seizes-cargo-ship-detains-captain-exporting-looted-grain-2024-07-11/
[3] Ibid
[4] @HESharifShAhmed, X, July 2024, https://x.com/HESharifShAhmed/status/1812677533525016744
[5] Car bomb kills Somalis watching Euro football final, BBC, July 2024, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd163e4yll4o
[6] Conflict With Al-Shabaab in Somalia, Council on Foreign Relations, June 2024, https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/al-shabab-somalia
[7] At least 5 killed in bombing targeting a busy café in the Somali capital, police say, AP News, July 2024, https://apnews.com/article/explosion-cafe-somalia-mogadishu-434c7ba5e5fbeabadc36a32529ca8503