September 21-28, 2022 | Issue 16 - AFRICOM
Mitchell Dallas, Meaghan Mackey, AFRICOM Team
Rohan Rajesh, Editor; Demetrios Giannakaris, Senior Editor
Mubende, Uganda[1]
Date: September 22, 2022
Location: Mubende District, Uganda
Parties involved: Ugandan government; Ugandan Ministry of Health; Ugandan citizens
The event: The Ugandan Ministry of Health announced that it had confirmed six new cases of Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever.[2] The Ministry of Health had previously confirmed one Ebola case in a Mubende District village.
Analysis & Implications:
The Ugandan government will very likely mobilize resources like mobile clinics and health workers to prevent the outbreak from spreading beyond Mubende District, but these measures are unlikely to stop the outbreak within the next two months due to Ebola’s long incubation period. The government’s decision to turn COVID centers into Ebola treatment centers will likely help control the outbreak while reducing costs. However, the ongoing COVID pandemic has likely depleted the government’s stocks of crucial equipment like masks and gowns, which will likely hinder patient care and increase Ebola infections among health workers.
The outbreak will likely cause the government to enact quarantine measures for 2-3 months in the area, restricting transportation and commerce and likely increasing poverty rates in and around Mubende District. The enactment of quarantine will almost certainly hamper the cultivation of agricultural products that the district’s economy relies on, very likely causing tensions between citizens and the government. Tensions will likely cause social unrest and protests that will likely turn violent as the Ugandan government will likely use force to maintain quarantine measures.
Date: September 25, 2022
Location: Mogadishu, Somalia
Parties involved: Somalia government; Somali military; al-Shabaab; US troops in Somalia; African Union peacekeeping forces;
The event: On Sunday, a suicide bomber disguised himself as a soldier entered a military base in west Mogadishu and detonated an explosive, killing one soldier and injuring six. Al-Shabaab has claimed responsibility.[3]
Analysis & Implications:
Al-Shabaab will very likely continue to attack Somali military assets further to destabilize military functions, such as recruitment and training. Attacks are unlikely to succeed in the short-term, but there is a roughly even chance that long-term efforts will work as al-Shabaab grows stronger in Mogadishu and the Banadir Region. The Somali government and military will likely weaken as al-Shabaab violence continues, likely allowing al-Shabaab to expand their controlled territory. Al-Shabaab will likely focus on expanding in Mogadishu and its suburbs to more effectively target Somali Government functions within the city.
The US military, African Union peacekeeping missions, and the Somali government will very likely retaliate against al-Shabaab using targeted drone strikes. These drone strikes will likely disrupt al-Shabaab’s capabilities and will likely force them to regroup before conducting further operations. Al-Shabaab and its opponents will likely continue retaliatory attacks, likely causing further casualties among civilians caught in the crossfire. These attacks will very likely occur in the Hiran and Galgaduud regions of Somalia, with a roughly even chance of al-Shabaab trying to target Mogadishu again in the coming months.
[1] Mubende, Uganda by Google Maps
[2] Uganda registers six new cases of Ebola in latest outbreak, Africanews, September 2022, https://www.africanews.com/2022/09/22/uganda-registers-six-new-cases-of-ebola-in-latest-outbreak/
[3] Suicide bombing in Somalia kills one soldier and injures six, Reuters, September 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/suicide-bombing-somalia-kills-one-soldier-injures-six-2022-09-25/