October 24-30, 2024 | Issue 43 - CENTCOM/AFRICOM Team
Giorgia Cito, Meghan Terry
Alice Cian, Elena Alice Rossetti, Editor; Brantley Williams, Senior Editor
Turkish Military Aircraft[1]
Date: October 24, 2024
Location: Iraq and Syria
Parties involved: Turkey; Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler; Turkish Armed Forces (TAF); Kurdish militant organization, Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK); PKK leadership; Iraq; Syria
The event: Turkey has launched airstrikes on PKK targets in Iraq and northern Syria, killing 59 PKK militants, including two believed to be “high level” targets, who Guler later confirmed as “neutralized.”[2]
Analysis & Implications:
The significant loss of low and high-level PKK militants due to the TAF strikes will likely require the PKK to re-evaluate its leadership structures and military strategy, likely adopting guerrilla-style warfare tactics to maintain influence along the Syrian/Turkish border. With morale likely hampered by the loss of high-level leaders, the PKK’s operational effectiveness and recruitment efforts will likely decrease following leadership losses. Operational effectiveness alongside a change in military tactics will very likely alter the dynamics of the conflict, very likely temporarily reducing confrontations with the TAF.
The TAF airstrikes will likely escalate tensions in Iraq and Syria, likely signifying Turkey’s willingness to pursue its campaign against PKK despite national sovereignty or damages to neighboring countries’ infrastructure. Iraq and Syria will likely view continued Turkish attacks on their territories as a breach of territorial sovereignty, likely leading to a multi-layered conflict as Iraq and Syria look to protect their interests. Escalated attacks will very likely heighten tensions between Turkey, Iraq, and Syria. The increased military activity and retaliation risks will likely lead Iraq and Syria to strengthen their defenses, likely increasing the risk of the conflict expanding beyond the PKK.
Date: October 27, 2024
Location: Qusair Area, Homs Province, Syria
Parties involved: Syria; Lebanon; Lebanese civilians; Lebanese Shia Islamist political party and militant group, Hezbollah; Israeli military; Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF, Doctors without Borders); UN Refugee Agency US High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR);
The event: Israeli military strikes target main crossing routes on the Syrian-Lebanese border to impede Hezbollah weapon transfers from Syria to Lebanon, causing Lebanese civilians to evacuate using a “narrow makeshift bridge” in the Qusair area, one of only three functional crossings remaining.[3]
Analysis & Implications:
Aid organizations such as MSF and UNHCR will likely face challenges moving throughout border zones and securing alternative supply routes. Increased security will likely require additional risk assessments, likely raising operational costs and redirecting resources from direct aid delivery to logistics. Communities in harder-to-reach locations will likely experience delays or aid reduction, impacting immediate needs and long-term resilience. This operational shift will very likely have to rely on local networks to sustain aid flow where traditional routes are no longer viable.
Israeli military strikes on suspected Hezbollah transport routes will very likely intensify, aiming to weaken Hezbollah’s operational capacity and restrict their logistical movements across the Syrian-Lebanese border. The destruction of route crossings will likely force Hezbollah to use alternative and less visible supply lines, likely involving transportation methods that are more challenging to monitor. Hezbollah's adaptation will likely lead to prolonged Israeli operations in Lebanon to disrupt Hezbollah’s logistic network, likely straining Israeli-Lebanese diplomatic channels and weakening efforts at de-escalating the regional tensions.
The lack of safe passages along the Syrian-Lebanese will likely expand the displacement crisis due to the heightened risks for Lebanese civilians evacuating. The disruption of crossings will likely lead to overcrowding at the Syrian-Lebanese border, likely increasing security risks for civilians, including potential airstrikes or ambushes during evacuation. Overcrowding at the border will likely worsen the living conditions for civilians attempting to flee as the risk of diseases and malnutrition among evacuees will increase based on the precarious situation.
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[1] Turkish military aircraft, generated by a third party database
[2] Turkey steps up strikes on PKK in Iraq, Syria after Ankara attack, Reuters, October 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-steps-up-strikes-pkk-iraq-syria-after-ankara-attack-2024-10-24/
[3] Destruction of Lebanon-Syria border crossings in Israeli airstrikes creates difficulties, ABC News, October 2024, https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/destruction-lebanon-syria-border-crossings-israeli-airstrikes-creates-115197865