(The Situation Update Report [SUR] is a near real-time brief of a possible threat or situation being monitored by The Counter Threat Center. The information is accurate at the time of reporting, but may be subject to change.)
Martina Elena Nitti,
Alice Cian, Finley Thomas, Editor; Julie Jones, Senior Editor
January 20, 2025
Cold Weather[1]
Current situation: The National Weather Service (NWS) issued for the District of Columbia a cold weather advisory in effect from Monday, January 20, at 1900 until Tuesday, January 21, at 1000 due to cold gusts of wind reaching five degrees below zero (Fahrenheit). The NSW reports chances of severe health consequences like hypothermia or frostbite in case of prolonged exposure to these temperatures.[2]
Day/Time of event: January 20, 2025/Morning local time
What is the current threat:
Severe weather conditions will very likely motivate people to stay indoors, mitigating the risks of public aggregation related to Donald Trump’s Presidential inauguration. The reduced number of people in the streets will likely alleviate military personnel and security forces’ efforts to monitor public spaces for violent threats and attacks.
Cold temperatures will likely deter some drivers from using the roads, limiting the number of traffic crashes and demand for support from law enforcement. These impacts have a roughly even chance of lessening the strain on police traffic control units during the presidential inauguration ceremony.
The presence of slippery or icy roads will very likely hinder the safety of drivers and individuals and increase the likelihood of crashes for drivers on the roads. These events will likely require law enforcement and security personnel’s involvement, very likely diverting resources during the inauguration ceremony.
Threat actors will likely exploit the lack or reduction of military or law enforcement presence in crowded areas of the city, such as the streets around the Capital One arena, to launch attacks or threaten people. These actors will likely act against crowds lingering in Washington DC after Trump’s inauguration, when security will likely relax after VIPs have departed. Potential attackers will very likely see crowds as an opportunity to cause mass casualties or panic, and either impact will likely generate media coverage to spread their message.
The current weather conditions will very likely impact emergency services due to potential health issues arising for homeless and elderly people, who may be vulnerable to extreme cold. These heightened health concerns will very likely strain the services’ capabilities to reach affected individuals in case of major attacks or threats related to the Presidential inauguration ceremony.
Who will it directly impact:
Law enforcement in Washington DC
Military personnel in service outdoors in the DC area
Residents in Washington DC
Visitors to Washington DC
Security personnel involved in Donald Trump’s Presidential inauguration
Emergency services in Washington DC
Drivers in Washington DC
Homeless populations in Washington DC
Vulnerable populations in Washington DC
[1] Winter, generated by CTG member
[2] Alert DC - Current Alerts, Homeland Security and Emergency Management Agency, January 2025, https://hsema.dc.gov/alerts