Camilla Raffaelli, Alberto Grosselli, Jigyasa Maloo, NORTHCOM and Extremism Teams
Naureen Salim, Alice Cian, Editor; Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor
December 17, 2024
Protest [1]
Summary
Political protests scheduled across the US, particularly over Martin Luther King Jr (MLK) weekend (January 18 to 20, 2025), are at risk of infiltration by extremist groups seeking to increase tension and promote violence. Numerous calls to action on social media, along with historical data of accelerationist and extremist group infiltration in protests, such as the 2020 George Floyd protests, create an environment where protest infiltration is very likely. The presence of far-right extremists at past protests, including at the 2020 George Floyd Minneapolis protests, and their involvement in violent acts during past peaceful demonstrations highlight the willingness of extremist groups to hijack non-violent events and redirect them to their own hostile objectives. The demonstrated intent of accelerationist groups to create clashes between law enforcement and civilians presents a likely threat to both groups during potential future protests. However, recent data shows a decline in extremist mobilization at political events since 2022, likely reducing the threat primarily to lone actors operating without group support.
Security Risk
Threat Description
Numerous groups of protesters and civil rights groups have claimed that unknown individuals, often masked and seemingly unrelated to the context, have infiltrated protests across the US to commit or instigate acts of violence.[2] Protest infiltration is often used by far-right groups aiming to delegitimize demonstrations against issues advocated for by the opposite political spectrum, including gun violence, racism, LGBTQ+ rights, and police brutality.[3] Several investigations have highlighted that, especially across politically charged protests, individuals who engage in acts of violence represent a minority and are perceived as outsiders to the main group.[4]
The Boogaloo Movement, a loosely organized accelerationist anti-government group, seeks to bring about a new “civil war” in the US, believing that current political issues such as gun control will lead the country into war.[5] While the group primarily focuses on anti-governmental beliefs, its members’ political leanings range from white supremacism to sympathy towards the 2020 Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement, rooted in its shared critique of law enforcement, making the group difficult to categorize.[6] Since late 2019, members displaying Boogaloo insignia or wearing the typical Hawaiian shirts have joined various protests, often organized by other groups.[7] Their role in these rallies tends to vary from passively joining and showing their firearms or signs to a more active presence, including acts of violence against police officers, which led to the arrest of Boogaloo-tied protest infiltrators at the George Floyd protests in Minneapolis in May of 2020.[8]
Individuals subscribing to accelerationist beliefs used similar tactics during protests organized by groups with different belief systems, such as the BLM movement and pro-Palestine student movements, by infiltrating the crowd and committing acts of vandalism while posing as members of the main group. On May 27, 2020, a video of a masked man defacing a wall and breaking the windows of a business amid BLM protests in Minneapolis went viral online with numerous users highlighting his behavior as “strange” and “out of place.”[9] Police investigations later identified the individual as a member of the Hells Angels biker gang and the Aryan Cowboy Brotherhood, a white supremacist prison and street gang from the same area.[10]
Far-right extremist groups, including the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers, have previously infiltrated protests representing similar political leanings, such as the January 6, 2021 Insurrection, exploiting the already growing tensions during the protest.[11] By leveraging the common grounds and shared grievances with other groups present, extremist groups encouraged participants to directly engage with the Capitol Building.[12] The exposure and openness to similar ideologies in social situations, such as protests, creates a vulnerability, allowing extremist groups to hijack well-intentioned individuals’ protests for malicious purposes. This risks making non-extremist individuals complicit or directly involved in violent actions.
Far-left groups such as Antifa lack clear organization or formal structure, making their coordinated mobilization and the identification of affiliated members difficult to achieve.[13] While far-left movements or individuals affiliated with these ideologies do pose a concern for public safety, instances of protest infiltration by such groups and individuals are rarer, as they tend to prefer a different strategy based on a more explicit involvement in protests or clashes. As an example, Antifa adherents sought direct confrontation with right and far-right protesters in numerous rallies and demonstrations organized in 2016 and 2017 in California and Virginia, which often resulted in injuries due to the widespread use of knives or other improvised weaponry such as bricks or Molotov cocktails.[14] Other significant clashes involving Antifa members broke out in Portland beginning in May 2020 and lasting over a year,[15] as well as in May 2021 in Oregon City, where once again individuals associated with the far-left group directly attacked opposing groups of protesters in fights described as “medieval clashes.”[16]
Amid claims of Antifa infiltration in the George Floyd protests and general 2020 civil unrest, the FBI reported that most violence during the protests had stemmed from opportunistic lone actors, with no direct affiliation with known extremist groups. For example, in the 2020 protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, a claim that 175 demonstrators associated with Antifa began circulating online, but, while the number of arrested was correct, the Kenosha Police Department did not share details on the affiliations of the individuals in custody, and it appear unlikely that all of them associated themselves with the anti-fascist group.[17] There is nonetheless evidence of Antifa activity during the 2020 protests, as the Newark Police Department arrested one individual possessing edged weapons and a jar of gasoline and intending to use them for violent purposes.[18] However, it is not clear whether the arrest happened at a protest or during a random check.[19] The director of the FBI, Christopher Wray, explained in 2020 how according to the Bureau, Antifa shared more similarities with an ideology, rather than a group.[20]
A 2024 report by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) shows that extremist groups have considerably reduced their involvement in politically charged events, with a 35% decrease in mobilization from 2022 to 2023.[21] This decrease affected both far-right groups, such as the Proud Boys, and leftist groups such as Antifa.[22] This data directly challenges fears of extremist involvement in potential January protests, while conceding that factors from past events, such as political shifts and the end of pandemic-related assembly restrictions, may still impact the protests' development.
Threat Development
While there have been numerous accusations and claims of protest infiltration across the US, especially in the last five years, many of them remain unfounded, with no official records or reporting to provide a consistent, solid basis of empirical evidence. The following list only includes instances of protest infiltration and agitation that were verifiable and whose accuracy has been validated and reported on by reliable sources.
Date: May 27, 2020 Location: Minneapolis, USA
Target: AutoZone building
Threat: Impromptu destruction of property and acceleration of violence
Outcome: The destruction of property while posing as a BLM protester, investigations into a Hell’s Angels member also connected to the Aryan Cowboy Brotherhood.[23]
Date: May 29, 2020
Location: Atlanta, Georgia, USA
Target: CNN Center
Threat: Destruction of property and arson
Outcome: The CNN building was defaced, the logo was vandalized, glass was broken, and Atlanta PD vehicles were damaged and burned during a BLM protest. [24]
Date: August 25, 2020
Location: Kenosha, Wisconsin, USA
Target: Civil unrest and protest in Kenosha triggered by the police shooting of Jacob Blake, leaving him paralyzed
Threat: Kyle Rittenhouse killed two people and injured one after confrontations with protesters [25]
Outcome: Acquitted for self-defense in 2021 [26]
Date: January 6, 2021
Location: Washington, DC, USA
Target: US Capitol
Threat: Encouragement of breaking and entering government buildings
Outcome: Breaking and entering of government buildings, occupation of the Capitol, numerous arrests.[27]
Date: April 27, 2024
Location: Boston, Massachusetts, USA
Target: Northeastern University
Threat: Infiltration by outsiders and use of anti-semitic words during pro-Palestine protests
Outcome: The order to clear infiltrators, resulted in a crackdown against protesters, and numerous arrests.[28]
Date: May 2, 2024
Location: New York, USA
Target: Columbia University and City University of New York
Threat: Allegation of ‘outside agitator’ co-opting student protestsOutcome: Numerous arrests, with the preliminary numbers suggesting 40% were outsiders and not students.[29]
Causal Analysis
The continued infiltrations of accelerationist groups and ill-intended individuals during protests show the will of threat actors to instrumentalize protest movements for their own purposes. The rationale behind the infiltration of protests will likely be driven by a range of factors, including political motivations, violent ideologies, and extremist views. A single significant occurrence will likely prompt mobilizations, attracting individuals with a propensity for inciting agitation, and with the potential to exploit the protest for their own benefit. There is a very likely threat of actors attempting to infiltrate future anti-government protests or social movements. The majority of target protests are characterized by decentralization and loose groups, wherein the arrival of new members is very likely to go undetected. Movements with no strict hierarchies and ease of access to protest information via social media or open communication channels including Telegram will likely be more vulnerable to infiltration.
This pattern of infiltrations is likely to be a calculated strategy employed by threat actors to exploit the vulnerabilities of peaceful social movements. By systematically embedding themselves within these protests, accelerationist groups will likely aim to increase tensions and cause confrontations beyond the protests and within the broader society, likely aiming to create an environment of chaos that very likely serves their goals of undermining social cohesion and trust in institutions. The multiple instances of protest infiltration will very likely highlight threat actors’ perseverance of efforts in conflict escalation and cause clashes between law enforcement and civilians, very likely in an attempt to delegitimize protest movements.
The polarized political environment and heightened tensions around the results of the Presidential elections almost certainly create fertile ground for both extremist groups and unaffiliated individuals to escalate conflict and manipulate narratives to their advantage. Far-right groups will likely strategically infiltrate demonstrations to provoke violence and delegitimize the protests in the public eye. Right-wing media will likely attribute isolated acts of violence to far-left groups such as Antifa, whereas the actual perpetrators will likely be opportunistic lone actors.
Threat Assessment
The potential for protest infiltration by individuals affiliated with extremist groups, whether far-right or far-left, is a significant concern. While the threat of infiltration is high, the possibility that the infiltrated demonstrations turn violent because of threat actors aiming to hijack them remains remote. Such a situation would likely simultaneously require the organization of a large, non-violent protest on issues traditionally championed by the left and the presence of a considerable number of far-right agitators. There is also a roughly even chance that individuals and agitators subscribing to far-left ideologies will exploit the situation to pursue their own violent agendas against peaceful protests organized by non-extremist groups.
Lone actors inspired by far-right ideologies will likely leverage non-violent protests such as BLM, that do not align with their ideologies, to show solidarity with far-right causes. The infiltration is unlikely to turn violent, but the amplification of such actions on social media within the wider far-right networks will likely encourage other opportunistic actors to do similar acts. As a result, non-violent protest will likely represent a tactic to subtly exploit public gatherings to gain visibility, which will likely aid in the recruitment of sympathizers.
States such as Pennsylvania and Florida with a higher presence of far-right networks will likely experience infiltration into non-violent protests organized there. Established local chapters will likely leverage protests based on politically charged themes such as immigration and abortion, to advance their narrative and grievance within the larger mainstream conversation. Actors will likely use verbal violence including hate speech, and physical provocations, to undermine the actual causes and intent of the protest. Right-wing media will likely disproportionately report on such events in an attempt to negatively portray these protests even in the eyes of more moderate right voters.
Both far-right groups and lone actors will likely disrupt and infiltrate anti-Trump protests, to discredit opposition in the lead-up to the inauguration ceremony on January 20, 2025. Extremist left-affiliated lone actors are likely to participate in protests that are in line with their ideologies with the intent of prompting clashes against opposing groups, such as far-right protesters. The threat is likely to remain high even after President Trump is sworn in, as anti-Trump protests will very likely continue long into the new year and counter-protests are very likely to happen as a reaction.
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[1] 90 MW holds mock protest exercise, by Senior Airman Sarah Post, licensed under Public Domain. (The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.)
[2] Many Claim Extremists Are Sparking Protest Violence. But Which Extremists?, The New York Times, May 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/31/us/george-floyd-protests-white-supremacists-antifa.html
[3] A look at far-right extremists in Jan. 6 riot, AP, June 2022, https://apnews.com/article/capitol-siege-proud-boys-donald-trump-congress-government-and-politics-a8baa24af07b20ab792f4ef6f4481fac
[4] Many Claim Extremists Are Sparking Protest Violence. But Which Extremists?, The New York Times, May 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/31/us/george-floyd-protests-white-supremacists-antifa.html
[5] The Boogaloo Movement, Anti-Defamation League, September 2020, https://www.adl.org/resources/backgrounder/boogaloo-movement
[6] Ibid
[7] The Boogaloo Movement Is Not What You Think, Bellingcat, May 2020, https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2020/05/27/the-boogaloo-movement-is-not-what-you-think/
[8]Self-Described Member of “Boogaloo Bois” Pleads Guilty to Riot, United States’ Attorney Office of the State of Minnesota, September 2021, https://www.justice.gov/usao-mn/pr/self-described-member-boogaloo-bois-pleads-guilty-riot
[9] Far-Right Infiltrators and Agitators in George Floyd Protests: Indicators of White Supremacists, Just Security, May 2020, https://www.justsecurity.org/70497/far-right-infiltrators-and-agitators-in-george-floyd-protests-indicators-of-white-supremacists/
[10] Aryan Cowboy Brotherhood, Anti-Defamation League, May 2022, https://www.adl.org/resources/hate-symbol/aryan-cowboy-brotherhood
[11] A look at far-right extremists in Jan. 6 riot, AP, June 2022, https://apnews.com/article/capitol-siege-proud-boys-donald-trump-congress-government-and-politics-a8baa24af07b20ab792f4ef6f4481fac
[12] Ibid
[13] Federal arrests show no sign that Antifa plotted protests, The New York Times, June 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/11/us/antifa-protests-george-floyd.html
[14] Examining Extremism: Antifa, CSIS, June 2021, https://www.csis.org/blogs/examining-extremism/examining-extremism-antifa
[15] After a year of protests, Portland residents have waning patience for antifa, ABC News, May 2021, https://abcnews.go.com/US/year-protests-portland-residents-waning-patience-antifa/story?id=77511470
[16] Proud Boys, antifa in ‘medieval clashes’ in Oregon City riot, KOIN 6 News, May 2021, https://www.koin.com/news/protests/oregon-city-protests-declared-riot-06182021/
[17] No evidence 175 arrested in Kenosha identified as ‘BLM-antifa’, AP, September 2020, https://apnews.com/article/archive-fact-checking-9367990380
[18] Examining Extremism: Antifa, CSIS, June 2021, https://www.csis.org/blogs/examining-extremism/examining-extremism-antifa
[19] Ibid
[20] Federal arrests show no sign that Antifa plotted protests, The New York Times, June 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/11/us/antifa-protests-george-floyd.html
[21] When is quiet too quiet? Understanding shifts in extremist mobilization in 2024, Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, September 2024, https://acleddata.com/2024/09/18/when-is-quiet-too-quiet-understanding-shifts-in-extremist-mobilization-in-2024/
[22] Ibid
[23] Far-Right Infiltrators and Agitators in George Floyd Protests: Indicators of White Supremacists, Just Security, May 2020, https://www.justsecurity.org/70497/far-right-infiltrators-and-agitators-in-george-floyd-protests-indicators-of-white-supremacists/
[24] Far-Right Infiltrators and Agitators in George Floyd Protests: Indicators of White Supremacists, Just Security, May 2020, https://www.justsecurity.org/70497/far-right-infiltrators-and-agitators-in-george-floyd-protests-indicators-of-white-supremacists/
[25] Kyle Rittenhouse, Charged With Killing 2 in Kenosha, to Challenge Extradition to Wisconsin, NBC, September 2020, https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/kyle-rittenhouse-charged-with-killing-2-in-kenosha-challenges-extradition-to-wisconsin/2344555/
[26] Kyle Rittenhouse is acquitted of all charges in the trial over killing 2 in Kenosha, NPR, November 2021, https://www.npr.org/2021/11/19/1057288807/kyle-rittenhouse-acquitted-all-charges-verdict
[27] A look at far-right extremists in Jan. 6 riot, AP, June 2022, https://apnews.com/article/capitol-siege-proud-boys-donald-trump-congress-government-and-politics-a8baa24af07b20ab792f4ef6f4481fac
[28] Crackdown or compromise? A tale of two US campus protests, BBC, May 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68909953
[29] NYC mayor says 'outside agitators' are co-opting Columbia protests—students disagree, NPR, May 2024, https://www.npr.org/2024/05/02/1248634146/columbia-university-mayor-eric-adams-nypd-student-arrests