Sabrina Bernardo, Yassin Belhaj, Clémence Van Damme, Samuel Pearson, William Adams, Anna Leda, Extremism Team
Alice Cian, Elena Alice Rossetti, Editors; Cameron Munoz, Senior Editor; Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor
November 3, 2024
A US Polling Site[1]
Summary
Concerns about political violence are escalating, and threats against voters, election officials, and polling sites are on the rise. Threats of violence will very likely continue and increase as November 5, 2024 (Election Day) approaches, and voters, poll workers, and election officials face potential threats, harassment, or violence on Election Day. Ninety-two percent of surveyed local election officials have taken steps to enhance security and protect election integrity.[2] Workers, clerks, and volunteers will likely express more fear of the current threat environment.
Election workers and voters will likely face numerous threats, including intimidation from election observers, chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) threats, armed demonstrations, disinformation campaigns, actions by far-left and right-leaning extremists, swatting, and targeted harassment of ethnic minorities. Election observers recruited by conspiracy groups will very likely attempt to intimidate voters at polling stations through confrontational tactics, such as aggressive questioning and blocking access, and will likely gather confidential voter data to spread online conspiracy theories. Uncertified election observers will very likely illegally enter polling sites, resulting in law enforcement intervention and reinforcing voter intimidation. Disinformation campaigns and conspiracy theories will likely target election officials and voters, inciting distrust in modern electoral technology and leading to a demand for hand-marked paper ballots.
Conspiracy theorists will almost certainly use online platforms to promote violence, increasing the mobilization of anti-government militias and likely causing security challenges for law enforcement. Far-right extremists will likely spread disinformation about illegal immigrants being given voting rights, fueling threats and harassment that dissuade ethnic minorities from voting. Far-left extremists will likely harass supporters of Kamala Harris, holding her responsible for alleged war crimes in Palestine, which will likely raise the risk of confrontations and violence. Swatters will likely exploit heightened security measures to divert emergency personnel, very likely increasing the risk of violence near polling places. To mitigate these risks, polling sites will very likely implement stricter security measures, including increased police presence and improved surveillance systems.
Thematic Events[3]
The Election Integrity Network, a coalition of organizations linked to the Republican Party and led by Trump’s former attorney, Cleta Mitchell, has been recruiting volunteers subscribing to conspiracy theories. This recruitment effort seeks to place these volunteers as election staff, including poll workers and observers.[4] In states like North Carolina, local Republican leaders trained volunteers to “be aggressive” and closely monitor voters with "Hispanic-sounding last names", alleging that these voters are more suspicious.[5][6] In September 2024, conspiracy theorist and influencer, Jack Posobiec, addressed election observers in Wisconsin and Michigan, stating, “It doesn’t matter who votes. It matters who counts the votes.”[7] In December 2023, Trump called on his supporters to “guard the vote” for the 2024 election in key locations like Detroit and Philadelphia, echoing similar appeals from 2020.[8]
During the lead-up to the November 2022 midterm elections, incidents of intimidation from election watchers aligned with the “Stop the Steal movement”[9] increased significantly, particularly in El Paso County, Colorado, where angry observers shouted at officials and recorded them. Similar aggressive behaviors emerged in North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada, where observers attempted to photograph sensitive equipment and intimidated voters, often violating state laws. In North Carolina, around 30 Republican observers appeared in a rural county compared to the typical 8-10 from both parties, many affiliated with a nationwide effort spearheaded by Republican lawyer Cleta Mitchell.[10]
Since the 2020 election, election officials, workers, and volunteers across the US have faced a surge in violent threats, including bomb threats and calls for mass shootings. Incidents include shootings targeting New Mexico officials, bomb threats in Arizona, and death threats made to election workers in states like Michigan and Alabama. The Justice Department has taken action, resulting in prison sentences and ongoing investigations to hold perpetrators accountable and ensure the safety of those upholding the election process.[11]
As of 2023, roughly four in 10 election workers reported experiencing abuse or harassment. This environment has led some workers to suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), with others considering resigning due to the dangers.[12] Amid rising concerns of violence, 12 states, including Washington DC[13] and California,[14] currently prohibit firearms at polling locations, with at least six states, including Vermont,[15] introducing legislation this year to expand these restrictions. In March 2024, a New Mexico law banned open weapons carry within 100 feet of polling sites and 50 feet of drop boxes. “Guns and voting don’t mix. People should be able to go to the polls and cast their ballots free of intimidation or worry about the presence of firearms, or even worse, potential violence,”[16] said Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham. In April 2024, a Global Project Against Hate and Extremism poll found that 40% of American voters are fearful for their safety at polling places, with 69% of women reporting heightened concerns. This survey reported a 30% increase in threats against election workers since the 2020 election.
In August 2024, in Jackson County, Wisconsin, a man questioned election volunteer Kris Burlingame about voting machines, accusing them of vote manipulation and insisting on seeing alleged internet connections. Conspiracy theorists often use allegations of voting machines’ internet connections to imply that third parties can alter the machines’ output, and thereby rig elections. Election officials have responded to conspiracy theorists’ threats by including emergency protocols for risk scenarios including active shooter situations at polling stations.[17]
On October 22, authorities arrested a man for allegedly shooting at a Democratic National Committee (DNC) office in Tempe, Arizona. Authorities believe the suspect hung razor-blade-lined political signs with bags marked as biohazard in Ahwatukee. Investigators discovered over 120 firearms, 250,000 rounds of ammunition, and other tactical equipment in the suspect’s home, and believe he was planning a mass casualty event.[18]
The National Association for Secretaries of State (NASS) issued a statement on September 17, 2024, condemning anonymous threat actors who mailed letters containing white powder to election officials.[19] Election officials in 22 states received these suspicious packages ahead of the 2024 presidential election, some marked from the "United States Traitor Elimination Army”. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who rebuffed Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election results, contributing to Trump's criminal indictment in Georgia, received one of these packages.[20]
Between December 2023 and January 2024, anonymous individuals targeted public officials with false emergency calls to police, alleging shootings or other life-threatening concerns. These calls, known as swatting, instigate an emergency response by police, and typically demand the deployment of a Special Weapons and Tactics (SWAT) unit.[21] In February 2024, Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley announced a swatter had targeted her home. These events form part of a broader trend, given the FBI listed 500 incidents in the first 8 months of its swatting database.[22]
Far-left extremists regularly accuse supporters of Vice-President Harris of supporting genocide.[23] Protests have disrupted multiple Harris rallies during the election campaign and security removed them.[24] Far-left activists online repost clips of these disruptions, and highlight alleged violent incidents between protestors and Harris supporters.[25]
During Donald Trump's rally at Madison Square Garden on October 29, 2024, prominent Republican allies made several racially charged remarks. Comedian Tony Hinchcliffe, a supporter of Trump, made offensive jokes about Latinos, including derogatory remarks about Puerto Rico, which he referred to as “a floating island of garbage.” Radio host Sid Rosenberg, another ally of Trump, went further by denigrating the Democratic Party, calling its members “degenerates” and “Jew-haters”.[26]
Assessments
Election observers recruited by pro-conspiracy groups will very likely attempt to intimidate voters at polling stations, using confrontational tactics like aggressive questioning, blocking access, following voters, or verbal harassment. Such actions will likely instill fear in vulnerable individuals, particularly senior citizens and visible minorities, likely discouraging them from voting or influencing their choices. Election observers acting for conspiracy groups will likely try to obtain confidential data on voters at the polling stations by taking illegal pictures of polling machines or using binoculars to scrutinize the voter registration process. They will very likely disseminate these observations online to fuel conspiracy theories related to rigged voting machines inciting popular action against polling sites. Self-proclaimed election observers[27] with no official capacity will very likely illegally enter polling sites, resulting in law enforcement intervention reinforcing voter intimidation. Armed demonstrations will likely occur near some polling sites to intimidate voters or influence their decisions in states without specific legislation on guns at polling stations, such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Election observers recruited by conspiracy groups, such as the “Stop the Steal” movement will likely pose significant threats by intimidating polling workers, including targeted harassment at their workplaces, death threats through calls and emails, protesters following them home, and citizens' arrests. The Stop the Seal’s intimidation tactics on polling sites will very likely aim at pressuring election officials to eliminate voting machines and revert to paper ballots, likely reflecting a broader agenda to undermine trust in modern electoral technology. Workers delivering ballots to counting facilities overnight will more likely face stalking, doxxing, and physical threats from self-appointed or official observers claiming to protect the election. Extremist groups like The Base[28] will likely ramp up threats and harassment against polling workers as they increase their recruitment of far-right activists, likely undermining the ability of election staff to perform their duties safely and effectively. Voters’ grievances will very likely result in heightened anger toward election officials, increasing societal polarization and raising the likelihood of possible conflicts near polling sites.
Polling workers will very likely face greater risks in swing states[29] where the convergence of political rivalries, misinformation campaigns, and extremists’ organized intimidation tactics will likely create a volatile atmosphere. The disinformation about polling workers will very likely become more visible as November 5 approaches, creating mistrust and resentment among voters, with a roughly even chance of prompting voter hesitancy and unwillingness to participate in elections. Conspiracy theorists and members of the far-right will very likely accuse polling workers of tampering with the voting machines to manipulate ballot results. There is a roughly even chance conspiracy theories about rigged voting machines will lead to a refusal to vote using such devices, demanding hand-marked paper ballots and delaying the results. This trend will likely strain resources and logistics, forcing election officials to prepare for a larger influx of paper ballots. States using only direct recording electronic (DRE) machines or ballot-marking devices (BMDs), such as Louisiana and Georgia, will likely face operational disruptions due to voters’ distrust of voting machines.
Polling sites will likely continue receiving death threats from conspiracy theorists blaming them for Trump's defeat in 2020. Anonymous threats, including death threats, bomb threats, and shooting threats, will likely continue, almost certainly causing distress and high staff turnover in election administration offices and at polling stations. Firearms, and disinformation alleging government officials commit voter fraud during elections, being widespread in the US, conspiracy theorists in swing states will likely mount armed demonstrations. Armed demonstrators will likely demand to inspect voting machinery and voters’ identification, claiming to be defending election integrity against fraud.
Threat actors will likely continue sending suspicious packages/letters to election officials to disrupt the electoral process. Working alone or in small groups, there is a roughly even chance that powdered substances will be mailed to polling stations, election administrators’ offices, and secretaries of state, likely aiming to simulate biological or chemical threats. There is a roughly even chance that these threats will cause broader security anxieties, which will likely divert National Guard or law enforcement units specializing in CBRN threats. This diversion will likely strain state and local government resources and lead to road closures to establish safety perimeters disrupting traffic flow and business operations.
Conspiracy theorists will very likely use multiple online platforms to spread disinformation and misinformation about government interference in free and fair elections. The promotion of violence on platforms like Truth Social, such as calls for civil war, will likely increase the online and offline mobilization of anti-government militias both online and offline, prompting activities such as recruitment drives, tactical training sessions, and coordinated gatherings. Law enforcement responses, including arresting potential suspects, will likely make the perpetrators martyrs or role models among the anti-government movement, likely inspiring copycat actions. Anti-government militia tactics will likely evolve to match law enforcement and security forces. These tactics will likely increase the threat of mass casualties in the event of an attack or counter-attack. Distrust in the government will likely impede the government's ability to perform its duties of investigating and preventing violent crime.
Swatters will very likely take advantage of the increased risk and heightened security measures to report false critical emergencies in various locations, diverting the attention of emergency personnel. This diversion will very likely create a gap in the emergency response personnel, likely allowing for increased violence near voting booths.
Far-left extremists will likely harass and insult presidential candidate Kamala Harris and her supporters by displaying campaign material, such as signs, banners, or car stickers accusing her of atrocities, as they will very likely hold Harris responsible for alleged war crimes in Palestine. Far-left extremists will likely perceive her supporters as responsible. This harassment will very likely raise the risk of confrontations and violence. Supporters of the far-left or moderate left will likely create and disseminate misleading or defamatory social media content, to incite backlash or doxxing of the other side in instances of harassment or confrontation.
Right-leaning extremists will very likely continue spreading disinformation about illegal immigrants given the right to vote, and false polling projections about which candidate is ahead, to justify claims of voter fraud if the preferred candidate loses. Rumors over illegal immigrants being given voting registration cards will very likely increase online harassment and threats of violence toward immigrants and ethnic minorities, likely dissuading them from going to polling stations. Threats against immigrants will likely occur nationally, and will very likely occur in swing states.
Following former President Donald Trump's claims about non-citizen voting, voters belonging to ethnic minorities will very likely face enhanced scrutiny and be victims of aggression based on racial profiling at polling stations. Members of the Latinx community in swing states will likely face more thorough identity checks at polling stations by nonpartisan poll workers instructed to pay more attention to Hispanic-sounding last names.[30]
If law enforcement or private security escort disruptive officials or unofficial poll watchers out of polling stations, conspiracy theorists will very likely claim that these actions show malice or conspiracy in government agencies. Polling sites will very likely implement enhanced security measures at polling stations, including increased police presence, bulletproof glass, security cameras, and access monitoring with badges or cards, to reduce the risk of operational disruptions and improve emergency preparedness. Law enforcement at election sites and during ballot transfers will likely use drones to support surveillance activities and deter disruptive and violent actions. Local counties will likely set up emergency operations centers at 911 call centers and panic buttons, ensuring direct access to first responders, almost certainly enhancing communication and response capabilities in the event of an incident.
Future Implications
Threats and grievances over the management of Election Day and the election, in general, will very likely impact the transition to the new incoming administration, very likely damaging its legitimacy. If an unfavorable candidate appears to be winning a county or state’s vote, extremists will likely target local polling and vote-counting sites with threats, intending to suppress the vote in these areas. Grievances over alleged fraud will very likely inspire increased threats against Vice-President Harris if she wins the election, and very likely lead to additional violent protests and civil unrest. Individuals and groups aggrieved by former President Trump’s rhetoric and his perceived association with political violence will very likely violently protest if he wins the election. Threats to Trump's safety will very likely increase if he becomes the US president, given fears regarding the possible violent outcomes of the election, regardless of which political party wins.
Violence surrounding the transfer of power in the US will likely damage its international standing, as some observers will likely conclude that US institutions and state legitimacy are more fragile than mainstream consensus suggests. This possible damage to the administration’s domestic legitimacy will have a roughly even chance of constraining its foreign policy options.
Persistent threats of political violence around Election Day will likely foster grievances against both parties. Distrust will likely increase between Republicans and Democrats, cascading down to the public and fueling incendiary rhetoric and physical violence from extremist supporters. There is a roughly even chance that this climate of distrust and violence will reduce voter turnout at the polls out of fear for personal security. The normalization of threats and political violence will very likely negatively impact US democracy, as some voters and election candidates will likely constrain their publicly advertised positions to avoid retaliation from their opponents. The resulting limits to political debates will very likely discourage participation in future elections, likely reducing government accountability. Some US citizens will likely organize and arm themselves, potentially joining militias, due to a growing perception that their safety is at risk. This sentiment is likely to stem from fears of election fraud and government overreach, driving individuals to see militias as a way to protect their communities. Such self-organization will likely result in an increased presence of armed groups at local events, public buildings, and polling stations, amplifying tensions and raising concerns about public safety. Societal tensions will likely escalate, leading to further violence and fuelling distrust in US institutions.
[1] US citizens voting in a polling site, generated by a third party database (created by AI)
[2] Here’s how election officials have boosted security since 2020’s threats of violence, PBS, October 2024, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/heres-how-election-officials-have-boosted-security-since-2020s-threats-of-violence
[3] Analysts have organized this section thematically to highlight the interconnected threats and intimidation, reflecting a broader hostility towards the electoral process.
[4] Lawyer Who Plotted to Overturn Trump Loss Recruits Election Deniers to Watch Over the Vote, The New York Times, May 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/30/us/politics/republican-poll-monitors-election-activists.html
[5] Republican poll watchers in battleground states worry US election experts, Reuters, October 24, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/be-aggressive-republican-poll-watchers-battleground-states-worry-us-election-2024-10-24/
[6] "Election protection" activist says he plans to flag voters with "Hispanic-sounding" names as "suspicious", PBS, October 2024, https://www.cbsnews.com/colorado/news/election-integrity-north-carolina-voters-hispanic-sounding-names/?intcid=CNR-01-0623
[7] The R.N.C. Asked a Conspiracy Theorist to Train Poll Watchers. Here’s What He Told Them, The New York Times, September 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/26/us/politics/republican-national-committee-2024-posobiec.html
[8] Trump calls on supporters to 'guard the vote' in Democratic-run US cities, Reuters, December 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-calls-supporters-guard-vote-democratic-run-us-cities-2023-12-03/
[9] The "Stop the Steal" movement promotes claims that the 2020 US presidential election was rigged against Donald Trump, fueling protests and supporting candidates focused on stricter election controls.
[10] “Insight: 'Stop the steal' supporters train thousands of U.S. poll observers”, Reuters, October 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/stop-steal-supporters-train-thousands-us-poll-observers-2022-10-13/
[11] “Attorney General Merrick B. Garland Delivers Remarks at the Convening of the Election Threats Task Force”, US Department of Justice Office of Public Affairs, September 2024, https://www.justice.gov/opa/speech/attorney-general-merrick-b-garland-delivers-remarks-convening-election-threats-task
[12] ‘You stole the election’: Nervous volunteers on front line of conspiracies, BBC, October 2024, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0e71yp1e1o
[13] RCW 9.41.284, Washington State Legislature, 2021, https://app.leg.wa.gov/RCW/default.aspx?cite=9.41.284
[14] ASSEMBLY BILL No. 2642, CALIFORNIA LEGISLATURE— 2023–2024 REGULAR SESSION, February 2024, https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billPdf.xhtml?bill_id=202320240AB2642&version=20230AB264299INT (automatic download when clicked)
[15] H.561, Vermont General Assembly, 2024, https://legislature.vermont.gov/Documents/2024/Docs/BILLS/H-0561/H-0561%20As%20Introduced.pdf
[16] More states move to restrict guns at polling sites to protect workers, voters from threats, PBS, April 2024, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/more-states-move-to-restrict-guns-at-polling-sites-to-protect-workers-voters-from-threats
[17] ‘You stole the election’: Nervous volunteers on front line of conspiracies, BBC, October 2024,
[18] Suspect in shootings of Democratic office in Arizona had over 120 guns in his home, officials find, AP, October 24, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/tempe-arizona-dnc-office-shootings-6f93528b571cd4c148dfd1612600854a
[19] NASS Statement on Suspicious Letters Sent to Election Offices, NASS, September 17, 2024, https://www.nass.org/node/2616
[20] “Protecting Your Vote: Georgia election workers prepare for election under cloud of threats”, ABC News, October 6, 2024, https://abcnews.go.com/US/fight-life-georgia-election-workers-prepare-election-cloud/story?id=114534148
[21] Swatting calls target more than a dozen public officials since Christmas. One says, "This is an assassination attempt.", CBS, January 2024, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/swatting-attacks-public-officials-targeted/
[22] Growing list of public and private people are being targeted by swatting attempts, NPR, February 2024, https://www.npr.org/2024/02/02/1228541386/growing-list-of-public-and-private-people-are-being-targeted-by-swatting-attempt
[23] @islamocommunism, X, July 21, 2024, https://x.com/islamocommunism/status/1815099017208250403
[24] Harris tries to turn Gaza protests into a way to energize the crowds at her rallies, AP, November 2024, https://apnews.com/article/harris-gaza-protests-rallies-wisconsin-d6aac06c7492bd4c93c567d70aaba38e
[25] @_iamblakeley, X, October 28, 2024, https://x.com/_iamblakeley/status/1850973111547486592
[26] “Off-color jokes, vitriol take over Trump Madison Square Garden rally”, NPR, October 28, 2024, https://www.npr.org/2024/10/27/g-s1-30232/trump-madison-square-garden-insults
[27] An uncertified election observer is someone who monitors the voting process without the official credentials required by election authorities, meaning they do not follow the training, rules, or guidelines set for certified observers. “Trump encourages supporters to independently monitor polling places — a federal crime”, CBS, September 2020, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/president-trump-encourages-supporters-to-monitor-polling-places-a-federal-crime/
[28] The Base is a neo-Nazi extremist group focused on promoting racial violence and conducting paramilitary training.
[29] The swing states are US states which could be won by either major political party in an election. In the 2024 Election they are Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, and North Carolina.
[30] "Election protection" activist says he plans to flag voters with "Hispanic-sounding" names as "suspicious", CBS, October 21, 2024, https://www.cbsnews.com/colorado/news/election-integrity-north-carolina-voters-hispanic-sounding-names/?intcid=CNR-01-0623