William Adams, Lydia Baccino, Jigyasa Maloo, Oliver Waters, John Impallomeni, NORTHCOM Team
Clémence Van Damme, Samantha Mikulskis, Editor; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor
September 9, 2024
US Presidential Election Scheduled for November 2024[1]
Summary
On September 10, 2024, former President Donald Trump and Vice President (VP) Kamala Harris will hold a debate at the Philadelphia National Constitution Center. The ABC Television Network will host the debate and Linsey Davis and David Muir will present it. Security concerns surrounding the presidential election led to the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) requesting approval from the Department of Defense (DOD) to aid the US Secret Service (USSS) during the 2025 presidential inauguration.[2] Philadelphia is a transportation hub consisting of Philadelphia International Airport (PHL), Port of Philadelphia, educational institutions, such as the Temple University and the Community College of Philadelphia (CCP), federal buildings, interstate highways I-95 and I-676, all near the venue. The location creates vulnerabilities that could result in various threats. The differing threats will require physical protection, cybersecurity, and counter-drone initiatives, challenging law enforcement to ensure the safety and security of candidates, citizens, and property. A multi-agency collaborative approach involving law enforcement, intelligence agencies, the private sector, and key stakeholders will be necessary to prevent and counter these threats while maintaining the legitimacy of the electoral process.
Threat actors will likely aim to carry out attacks against presidential candidates participating in the debate. Based on the quantity, validity, and data verification CTG assesses with HIGH CONFIDENCE that terrorists or extremists will likely try to take advantage of the geography of Philadelphia, to target both candidates, using drone attacks and shootings, both at the venue and along their routes. Far-right extremists will likely pose as members of the press in an attempt to kidnap Harris due to disinformation posted on social media. This will likely be generated through the usage of AI, and squatting sites by Russian, Chinese, and Iranian groups. These groups will likely aim to influence voters at the ballot box, by undermining trust in democratic institutions and processes.
Recent Events
On October 28, 2022, the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi’s husband was attacked with a hammer in their San Francisco house.[3] The attacker, David DePape had engaged in far-right conspiracies and spent six hours a day watching political commentary on YouTube.[4] He carried out the attack days before the 2022 US midterm elections.[5]
On July 13, 2024, a gunman attempted to assassinate Trump during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. Reportedly, the assailant conducted on-site surveillance of the area using a drone. To support the mission of USSS, the Transportation Security Administration's law enforcement and Federal Air Marshals (LE/FAMS) recently signed an agreement to provide additional security for the 2024 presidential campaign.[6]
In August 2024, Trump claimed that his strategy to defeat Kamala Harris depended on being able to “define our opponent as… a communist.”[7] Trump shared fake AI-generated images of Kamala purportedly speaking at a communist event in Chicago, on Truth Social and X.[8] Trump referred to her in these tweets as “Comrade Kamala.”[9] Social Media users had shared the image 81.1 million views on X, by August 18, 2024.[10]
In September 2024, the Biden administration seized Kremlin-backed websites and charged two Russian state media news outlets.[11] One organization targeted was Tenet Media, which hosts far-right commentators, including Tim Pool and Benny Johnson.[12] US intelligence officials have previously accused Russia of supporting Trump on Facebook in 2016, although Moscow denies all allegations.[13]
On Saturday 7, Trump delivered a speech at a rally in Wisconsin that reportedly contained “falsehoods, spreading incorrect information about gender transition care for minors, border crossings, and government employment statistics.”[14] Despite these claims, Trump provided no evidence. Examples include Trump claiming “Kamala [Harris] supports states being able to take minor children and perform sex-change operation, take them away from their parents, perform sex-change operation, and send them back home.”[15] However, this is not occurring in any state. Another reportedly false claim is that the House committee, that investigated the Capitol Hill Riots, “destroyed and deleted all documents, all evidence, all proof.”[16] The Washington Post’s fact checker first disputed this claim in January but Trump perpetuates this narrative.
On the day of the debate, the Federal Air Administration (FAA) will be enforcing a no-fly zone over Philadelphia, applying to all aircraft except for “law enforcement, firefighting, and medevac/air ambulance flights.”[17] These restrictions allow the “use of deadly force against the airborne [aircraft]” that pose an imminent security threat.[18] The event requires USSS, law enforcement, private security, and event staff to maintain awareness of individuals posing as journalists attempting to gain access to restricted areas.[19] LE/FAMS will utilize specialized units to conduct plain-clothes operations to monitor security at PHL and public railway services.
Assessments
Far-right actors will likely be the predominant threat to proceedings during the debate. Radical-right rhetoric on social media, describing Harris as “Comrade Kamala” will likely increase the risk of violence to her and her staff.[20] Given the precedent set by the Gretchen Whitmer case, these threats will likely take the form of a kidnapping attempt against Harris using large mobs at the National Constitution Center. The exposed nature of the lawn outside the venue will likely ease assassination attempts by extremists as they will likely target candidates using high-powered rifles from publically accessible buildings nearby.
The route used by participants in the debate at the National Constitution Center will likely pose opportunities for threat actors to target both presidential candidates. If candidates are arriving via PHL they will almost certainly use the I-95 Highway to travel to the debate venue. Assailants will likely exploit bridges and elevated features over the road to ambush the motorcades of presidential candidates’ motorcades. Potential chokepoints that threat actors will likely exploit include Beirut Park, the Philadelphia Vietnam War Memorial, I-95 Park, South Pedestrian Walkway, the Schuylkill Expressway (I-76) junction, and the slipway connecting I-95 to PHL.
Threat actors will likely use drones to conduct their operations against the presidential debate. Given that the FAA no-fly zone stipulates unauthorized aircraft could be destroyed, terrorists will unlikely use manned aircraft, as aerial attacks using these technologies have a high risk of failure based on interception risks. Threat actors will likely assess drones have a higher probability of success as using drones would very likely allow for multiple assassination attempts due to their expendable nature. Threat actors will very likely exploit drones for reconnaissance purposes to account for high-rise buildings near the National Constitution Centre.
In addition to their protective duties, Philadelphia law enforcement will very likely have to divert resources to handle threats at other locations indirectly connected with the debate. LE/FAMS will likely deploy specialized units to conduct plain-clothes operations to monitor security at PHL and public railway services passing through central Philadelphia. Harris's support of Israel will almost certainly ignite protests at campaign stops and universities. The Philadelphia Police Department(PPD) will likely face challenges in setting up designated areas for protestors while rerouting vehicular and pedestrian traffic away from the event venue. Areas of congestion will likely build up, creating vulnerabilities for violence and crimes of opportunity against civilians.
Trump’s court cases will very likely be a common talking point in interviews leading up to and after the September 10, 2024 debate. Trump will almost certainly allege that the charges are fraudulent and meant to prevent him from being elected. Republican candidates supporting Trump will likely reinforce these allegations, likely legitimizing these claims among his voter base. The judges and lawyers appointed to the cases will very likely be targets of name-calling and efforts to undermine their credibility. Online harassment will very likely increase for these officials, likely crossing over to physical attacks and intimidation. Delays in court cases or new charges against Trump will very likely lead to theories of election interference, likely decreasing trust in the judicial system among Trump supporters. This distrust will likely have a domino effect on other institutions, especially law enforcement and election integrity agencies, very likely increasing the presence of far-right militias including the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys at Trump rallies and voting locations.
Russia will almost certainly attempt to influence American public opinion before, during, and after the debate. The US Justice Department (DOJ) seized 32 internet domains[21] employed by Russian state-sponsored actors in a covert campaign. This Russian influence operation almost certainly signals the ongoing effort to interfere in the election by relying on AI-generated content. The use of cyber squatted sites resembling mainstream news outlets, very likely makes these fake sites appear as trusted sources of information. This very likely aims at tricking users by spreading Russian propaganda to manipulate public perception, very likely undermining the credibility of genuine news outlets. The charges against two employees of Russia Today (RT), a Russian-based media house, very likely underscore the extensive reach of Russian-linked money laundering.[22] By targeting American social media influencers, specifically far-right creators, Russian-backed actors very likely aim to subtly push polarizing agendas including immigration, crime, and inflation. These disinformation efforts are very likely a calculated move to deliberately mix false narratives with credible voices having a large following, very likely reaching and potentially impacting a larger audience in the US.
Future Implications
Presidential candidates will likely use motorcades that will likely be vulnerable to small-arms fire. The Democratic campaign will likely use the “A New Way Forward” Bus to carry additional staffers, which will almost certainly slow the convoy's average speed. These limitations, will almost certainly make these convoying an easier target for potential ambushes. Threat actors will very likely adapt their weaponry, considering that vehicles will very likely be up-armored. Potential attackers will likely use high-caliber arms to maximize their chance of penetration and killing their intended target.
Threat actors will likely use quadcopter-style drones in their operations due to the ease of acquisition and operation. Given this type of drone is available on the civilian market, assailants will very likely acquire them without attracting police attention. The small size of these assets small size will likely further encourage their use in urban areas. Attackers will almost certainly be capable of launching them from narrow city spaces, allowing the operator to remain concealed whilst using the drone.
Threat actors will manipulate online broadcasts of the presidential debates, portraying them as dysfunctional, likely discouraging people who believe these narratives from voting in the upcoming election. Videos of multiple interviews stitched together will very likely increase, providing facts but leaving out context that would help the audience remain more informed. The overabundance of disinformation will very likely generate misleading claims about candidates' statements on important policies, and will very likely overwhelm voters with information. This will likely result in voters picking only the information that supports their pre-existing beliefs. The circulation of selective information across social media will likely exacerbate the rising narrative of declinism. Declinism is defined as the “salience of international decline as a theme in political […] discourse.”[23] This rhetoric will likely stimulate online discussion of the perceived flaws in the democratic system and glorify the past.
AI-generated images and ads will very likely flood social media and traditional broadcasting networks using tactics to undermine the other candidates, likely validating the views of those on the extreme ends of the political spectrum. These synthetic images will very likely draw on the viewer's concerns about important issues, like the border crisis or the loss of jobs, likely trying to portray the candidate as the one who will solve these crises.
Russia has almost certainly diversified its disinformation campaign, by leveraging AI-backed technologies and sophisticated methods such as automated accounts, and content manipulations to reach a wider US population. The use of AI trolls, chatbots, and deepfakes, will very likely enable the rapid creation and dissemination of disinformation in real time during discussions in the debate. The AI disinformation tactics will likely make it difficult to counter false narratives in real-time, as it spreads across multiple social media platforms using trending topics, hashtags, and viral content.
[1] Presidential campaign, generated by a third party database
[2] DOD Will Provide Homeland With Support During Presidential Campaigns, US Department of Defense (DOD), August 2024,
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3890884/dod-will-provide-homeland-with-support-during-presidential-campaigns/#:~:text=The%20Defense%20Department%20has%20approved,pentagon%20press%20secretary%20said%20today.
[3]“David DePape, man who attacked Paul Pelosi with a hammer, sentenced to 30 years in prison.”, NBC News, 2024, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/david-depape-man-attacked-paul-pelosi-hammer-sentenced-30-years-prison-rcna152614
[4] Ibid
[5] Judge keeps punishment of 30 years at resentencing for man who attacked Paul Pelosi with a hammer, PBS News, May, 2023, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/judge-keeps-punishment-of-30-years-at-resentencing-for-man-who-attacked-paul-pelosi-with-a-hammer
[6] TSA supports partners at Republican, Democratic National Conventions, US Transportation Security Administration, September 2024, https://www.tsa.gov/about/employee-stories/tsa-supports-partners-republican-democratic-national-conventions
[7] Trump escalates gendered personal insults against Harris defying GOP pressure, The Washington Post, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/17/trump-harris-presidential/
[8] Trump shares fake image of Haris speaking to communist event, The Hill, 2024, https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4834669-trump-fake-photo-harris-communist/
[9] Ibid
[10]How AI generated memes are changing the 2024 election, NPR, 2024, https://www.npr.org/2024/08/30/nx-s1-5087913/donald-trump-artificial-intelligence-memes-deepfakes-taylor-swift
[11] With charges and sanctions US takes aim at Russian disinformation ahead of November election, AP News, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/russia-justice-department-election-foreign-influence-4888f4bfc61e46173101060ad0321d2f
[12] Ibid
[13] Tenet Media posts still online, despite U.S. claims of Russian influence campaign, Reuters, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/social-media-platforms-leave-alleged-russian-influence-network-largely-untouched-2024-09-06/
[14] Trump fills speech with falsehoods; Harris in debate prep, The Washington Post, September 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/09/08/2024-election-campaign-updates-harris-trump/
[15] Trump’s Wisconsin speech was peppered with falsehoods, Washington Post, September 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/09/08/2024-election-campaign-updates-harris-trump/#link-BKJCYRLRR5AWDMKOZAREQVHONA
[16] Ibid
[17] NOTAM FDC 4/2306 Direct, US Federal Air Administration (FAA), 2024, https://tfr.faa.gov/save_pages/detail_4_2306.html
[18] NOTAM : 4/2306 Actual, US Federal Air Administration (FAA), 2024, https://tfr.faa.gov/save_pages/notam_actual_4_2306.html
[19] HUMINT source, New Jersey, September 9, 2024
[20] Trump shares fake image of Haris speaking to communist event, The Hill, 2024, https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4834669-trump-fake-photo-harris-communist/
[21] Justice Department Disrupts Covert Russian Government-Sponsored Foreign Malign Influence Operation Targeting Audiences in the United States and Elsewhere, US Department of Justice, September 2024, https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-disrupts-covert-russian-government-sponsored-foreign-malign-influence
[22] Employees of Russian State-Controlled Media Outlet Deployed Nearly $10 Million to Publish RT-Curated Content, Which Garnered Millions of Views, Through a Tennessee-Based Online Content Creation Company, US Department of Justice, September 2024, https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/two-rt-employees-indicted-covertly-funding-and-directing-us-company-published-thousands#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20court%20documents,by%20the%20Government%20of%20Russia.
[23] “Make Us Great Again,” Security Studies, 2022, https://pure-oai.bham.ac.uk/ws/portalfiles/portal/180990605/Make_Us_Great_Again_The_Causes_of_Declinism_in_Major_Powers.pdf