Jayde Dorland, Giulia Filomia, Mario López Ausín, Sofia Lopez Simpson, Elena Alice Rossetti, Madeline Thompson, Victoire Tissinié, Olympics Task Force Team
Anya Golend-Pratt, Editor; Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor
Date June 29, 2024
A Small Drone Hovering at Twilight[1]
France is on heightened security alert as it prepares to deter and counter the 2024 Summer Olympic Games’ security threats. The opening ceremony, scheduled for July 26, will require deploying numerous security resources and units. Taking place along the Seine, the six kilometers-long open-air parade will comprise close to 100 boats and more than 10,000 participants.[2] French President Emmanuel Macron did not rule out the possibility of relocation, emphasizing that the open-air event will only proceed if the necessary safety conditions are in place.[3] French authorities have established security perimeters around the event’s site, including a protected area prohibiting motorized access and a high-security anti-terrorist zone.[4] The parade’s open-air nature makes it particularly vulnerable to airborne threats, with French authorities underlining the risk of drone attacks.[5]
Based on the quantity, validity, and data verification, CTG assesses with HIGH CONFIDENCE that terrorists will very likely target the Olympics opening ceremony, likely exploiting the event’s open-air setting to carry out attacks with aerial weapons like unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Environmental obstacles, such as high buildings, trees, and concrete walls, and the discretion of unconventional weapons will very likely complicate UAVs’ detection. These site-related constraints will very likely delay counter-drone measures such as jamming efforts and hinder security forces’ attempts at countering airborne threats quickly. There is a roughly even chance that French authorities’ enhancement of anti-drone systems and overall security apparatus will dissuade perpetrators from targeting the event, lessening the chances of airborne threats occurring. France will very likely deploy a multi-layered plan, ranging from increased surveillance to coordinated drone shield systems, to reduce open-air-related risks.
Recent events
French authorities initially intended to make admission free for most spectators, aiming to open the ceremony to a large audience. Security concerns led France to review its attendance policy by denying free access to tourists.[6] France will select 22,2000 individuals from host towns who will be able to attend the ceremony for free.[7] Planning executives are considering deploying special protections to enhance the security for high-risk delegations such as the Israeli team,[8] in coordination with foreign security services. Drone attack threats led France to bolster its anti-drone systems. The French anti-drone system Parade, tested ahead of the Paris Olympics' opening ceremony to secure the Seine River from UAV threats, raised security concerns by performing below expectations, particularly regarding its range and efficiency in neutralizing drones. Exercises revealed shortcomings in the system’s perimeter as it could detect drones only at a distance of 800 meters.[9] Various elements, including obstacles such as trees and buildings, complicate the monitoring of air traffic and timely detection of airborne threats.[10] Police, gendarmerie, and army officers, under the guidance of the anti-drone Villacoublay Air Base,[11] are working to enhance response plans capable of effectively containing drone attacks.[12] Authorities are cooperating with the defense industry and the French Air and Space Force to improve the country’s military preparedness to counter the UAV threat.[13] France counts approximately three million drones, many in the hands of private owners.[14]
Assessments
The Olympics’ high profile, combined with the large crowds and international media attention, almost certainly makes it a target for terrorist activities. There is a roughly even chance that potential terrorists targeting the Olympics will use unconventional weapons such as small drones or homemade UAVs to carry out an attack, likely arming them with explosives or own-produced weapons. More structured terrorist networks, such as ISIS or al-Qaeda affiliates, or anti-Olympics protesters will likely try to send swarms of drones,[15] likely heightening the risk of saturating counter-drone systems and infiltrating the opening ceremony area. There is a roughly even chance that terrorists will use drones to surveil inside the security perimeters, likely to acquire details about police and army resources or to identify targets for attacking the Olympics competition planned near the Seine.
Drones will almost certainly pose a continuous security threat, with multiple drone owners likely trying to breach the event’s security perimeter. Anti-Olympics groups and climate activists will likely stage demonstrative action to protest against the Olympics, with a roughly even chance of flying drones to disturb the ceremony, as attempted at Heathrow airport.[16] Curious Paris citizens, tourists, and media owners without accreditation looking for images will very likely aim at taking pictures or live streaming the event. These actors will very likely send mini and micro drones over the Seine, which are more difficult to detect, likely overwhelming the counter-drone systems. The need to monitor, analyze huge data, classify, and counter any unauthorized drone will very likely occupy resources, likely distracting surveillance from the specific terrorist-related drone threat.
Drone threat countermeasures will very likely present side effects, likely creating security dilemmas for on-site operators. Jamming a drone's system will likely affect nearby signals, such as mobile phones or radios, with a roughly even chance of stopping essential communications. Radio-frequency-based systems will very likely become a target for hackers, forcing security officials to create multiple protection layers based on different technologies, such as radars, sensors, and cameras to ensure redundancy. There is a roughly even chance that jamming or other signs-disrupting countermeasures will result in the targeted drone falling or taking an unplanned trajectory, likely increasing the need to activate these systems in remote areas, before drones enter the opening ceremony airspace. Kinetic countermeasures over the ceremony venues, such as hitting a drone or destroying it in the air, will very likely prompt debris to fall on spectators and attendees. Should a drone contain weapons, physical destruction will likely spread potential chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) substances or trigger an explosion.
French authorities will very likely attempt to address the Parade system flaws.[17] Drones’ ability to navigate urban environments and evade detection makes them particularly challenging to counteract. The Parade system will likely underperform in drone detection in urban scenarios where trees, buildings, and monuments can hide the threat, very likely reducing the time and area of interception. French authorities such as the National Police will very likely complement the Parade system with manual interceptors such as nets and other types of detection technology already used in French airports, with a roughly even chance of compromising air security in those facilities. The open-air opening ceremony will almost certainly require the procurement of additional anti-drone systems that complement the Parade, such as the Basalt anti-drone systems to reach a 10-km radius cover.[18]
The anti-drone center in Villacoublay will very likely enable a necessary coordinating framework for the different forces and anti-drone units on the ground,[19] making real-time communication between this military base and deployed officers an essential component of the counter-drone strategy. Attackers will likely try to disrupt this communication channel or the coordination center itself with cyberattacks to hinder effective threat detection. Law enforcement’s need to classify authorized and non-authorized drones in a short time will almost certainly require officers to streamline operational procedures, considering countering systems likely cover a smaller perimeter than initially planned. The French military is very likely enhancing training on anti-drone systems strengths and weaknesses and identification skills for Olympic security forces, likely to equip on-site operators to conduct a first assessment and act swiftly, should they lose communication with Villacoublay.
France will deploy 2,000 Air Force personnel to secure Parisian airspace during the Olympics.[20] There is a roughly even chance that the tools and personnel used to counter drone attacks will dissuade individuals from carrying out terrorist attacks. Despite the implementation of new systems to prevent drone attacks, many obstacles, such as natural and infrastructural ones, will almost certainly impede their detection and drones will likely appear at the last moment during the ceremony. There is a roughly even chance that individuals might exploit gaps in the deployment of security personnel in crowded areas, especially around the Trocadéro area that will host the closing part of the ceremony. Private security will unlikely be able to meet its recruitment target of gathering 20,000 people and this will very likely lead to further vulnerabilities inside the event’s emergency management plans.[21]
Future Implications
French authorities will almost certainly deploy a multi-layered plan to counter drones, likely including kinetic and non-kinetic instruments to detect and neutralize threatening UAVs before they reach the opening ceremony area. They will likely combine aerial monitoring through radars and sensors with on-site teams using portable counter-UAV equipment such as nets, to blend early detection with flexible on-site responses. There is a roughly even chance that drone threats will surpass the security perimeter for the opening ceremony, but local teams will likely neutralize them before reaching the audience or the infrastructural target.Spectators and attendees will very likely play a key role in preventing and responding to drone-linked threats, likely requiring law enforcement to run awareness campaigns ahead of the opening ceremony. There is a roughly even chance that a clear, simple, and widespread notice regarding drone-prohibited areas and maneuvers will make the general public more threat-aware, likely discouraging unauthorized usage of drones. Informing spectators and attendees about how to react in case of a drone fall will very likely increase early detection and ease emergency evacuation procedures. Authorities will very likely instruct the public not to touch downed drones since they might carry CBRN materials or explode. Drones’ risk of leaking toxic substances or exploding even after the fall will almost certainly require the widespread presence of trained officers and bomb squads all over the opening ceremony venues to promptly evacuate, cordon off the area, and neutralize the threat.
The French Air and Space Force will very likely try to coordinate the efforts of local personnel from the French army, gendarmerie, and police with international partners such as England[22], Poland,[23] and Spain,[24] likely implementing specific common protocols to avoid overlapping or disturbances. International partners will likely deploy a variety of counter-drones technology, likely challenging interoperability, with a roughly even chance of disrupting each other's counter-measures. Interoperability challenges will very likely require previous information sharing among forces on the ground, likely to inform law enforcement officers about the strengths, weaknesses, and range of every deployed technological system to avoid overlapping or leaving unprotected areas. Previous joint exercises among French forces and events such as the Paris parades of July 14th, Pope Francis' visit to Marseilles, or the 2023 Rugby World Cup,[25] almost certainly eased communication and coordination, likely requiring the French Air and Space Force to focus on instructing foreign units, aligning procedures and devising shared protocols.
As France emphasizes the need to produce more weapons at a faster pace to sustain a war economy, the defense industry will very likely focus on counter-drone technologies to meet the needs of high-profile events like the Olympics. The increase in unconventional weapons and airborne threats will very likely heighten the need for more sophisticated and reliable anti-drone systems. This growing demand will very likely push French companies such as Thales to innovate and improve their existing technologies. The need to scale up production capacities will likely prompt the expansion of manufacturing facilities and the growing employment of critical staff such as engineers. The short period left before the opening ceremony will very likely motivate simplified procurement processes to ensure the timely delivery of essential systems. Companies will likely invest more in research and development (R&D) to stay ahead of emerging threats and develop efficient drone technologies. Collaboration between government and private defense companies will very likely intensify, increasing the French government’s spending and support for the industry in the long run.
Significant events such as the Olympics or international summits will very likely push defense companies to compete to deploy their counter-drones complete systems and showcase their technological edge, likely increasing specific joint projects. The fast-paced drone technology developments and significant financial needs in the R&D area will likely require enhanced cooperation and shared expertise between international partners in developing integrated counter-UAV systems. The EU will very likely increase investments in specific projects involving different European industries such as the Joint European sYstem for Countering Unmanned Air Systems (JEY-CUAS) and the European Counter Unmanned Aerial Systems (E-CUAS) through the European Defence Fund (EDF).[26] The defense industry will very likely broaden ad-hoc bilateral partnerships between historical defense industries and technological companies, such as the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Rheinmetall (Germany) and Anduril Industries (USA) to develop Counter small Unmanned Aerial System (C-sUAS) air defense systems,[27] with a roughly even chance of opening a new market niche for software start-ups.
[1] Drone Twilight, generated by a third party database
[2] More details about the opening ceremony: the start time has been announced, Infobae, March 2024, https://www.infobae.com/aroundtherings/articles/2024/03/10/more-details-about-the-opening-ceremony-the-start-time-has-been-announced/
[3] Paris Olympics opening ceremony on the Seine could move for security reasons, says Macron, France 24, April 2024, https://www.france24.com/en/france/20240415-paris-olympics-opening-ceremony-on-the-seine-could-move-for-security-reasons-says-macron
[4] Périmètres de sécurité pendant les Jeux: les réponses à vos questions, Paris, June 2024, https://www.paris.fr/pages/perimetres-de-securite-pendant-les-jeux-de-paris-2024-les-reponses-a-vos-questions-25632
[5] Macron says Paris Olympics opening ceremony could be moved, BBC News, April 2024,
[6] Olympics Opening Ceremony Closed to Tourists Amid Security Concerns, Voice of America, March 2024, https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.voanews.com/amp/olympics-opening-ceremony-closed-to-tourists-amid-security-concerns/7515053.html
[7] France beefs up security measures ahead of Paris Olympics opening ceremony, Euronews, June 2024, https://www.euronews.com/2024/06/18/france-gears-up-security-measures-ahead-of-upcoming-opening-ceremony-for-paris-olympics
[8] Israel’s olympians to receive unprecedented security for upcoming Paris games, The Jerusalem Post, June 2024, https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/sports/article-806957
[9] Tests expose worrying flaws in France’s anti-drone system for 2024 Olympics, France 24, April 2024, https://www.france24.com/en/sport/20240419-tests-expose-worrying-flaws-in-france-s-anti-drone-system-for-2024-olympics
[10] Anti-drone campaign intensifies as Paris Olympics approach, Le Monde, April 2024, https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2024/04/01/anti-drone-campaign-intensifies-as-olympic-games-approach_6666980_19.html
[11] The Anti-Drone fight: A Key Interdepartmental Mission in Air Security for the 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games, Ministère des Armées, n.d., https://www.defense.gouv.fr/en/grands-evenements-sportifs-internationaux/securisation-jeux/anti-drone-fight-key-interdepartmental-mission-air
[12] Anti-drone units a new tool to keep Paris 2024 safe, Reuters, March 2024, https://www.reuters.com/sports/anti-drone-units-new-tool-keep-paris-2024-safe-2024-03-14/
[13] The Anti-Drone fight: A Key Interdepartmental Mission in Air Security for the 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games, Ministère des Armées, n.d., https://www.defense.gouv.fr/en/grands-evenements-sportifs-internationaux/securisation-jeux/anti-drone-fight-key-interdepartmental-mission-air
[14] Anti-drone campaign intensifies as Paris Olympics approach, Le Monde, April 2024, https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2024/04/01/anti-drone-campaign-intensifies-as-olympic-games-approach_6666980_19.html
[15] Paris Olympics anti-drone system fails to convince as clock ticks, France 24, Aprile 2024, https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240412-paris-olympics-anti-drone-system-fails-to-convince-as-clock-ticks
[16] Climate activists escape jail over London Heathrow drone protest, France 24, April 2024, https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240405-climate-activists-escape-jail-over-london-heathrow-drone-protest
[17] Paris Olympics anti-drone system fails to convince as clock ticks, France 24, Aprile 2024, https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240412-paris-olympics-anti-drone-system-fails-to-convince-as-clock-ticks
[18] Ibid
[19] The Anti-Drone fight: A Key Interdepartmental Mission in Air Security for the 2024 Olympic and Paralympic, Ministère des Armées, https://www.defense.gouv.fr/en/grands-evenements-sportifs-internationaux/securisation-jeux/anti-drone-fight-key-interdepartmental-mission-air
[20] French army fears overstretch at 2024 Paris Olympics, the Times of India, April, 2020, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/french-army-fears-overstretch-at-2024-paris-olympics/articleshow/99296661.cms
[21] Ibid
[22] UK policing announces support for Paris 2024 Olympics, National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC), April 2024, https://news.npcc.police.uk/releases/uk-policing-and-partners-announce-support-for-paris-2024-olympic-and-paralympic-games
[23] Some 2,000 foreign troops to help with security for Paris Olympics, France 24, April 2024, https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240413-about-2-000-foreign-troops-to-bolster-security-during-paris-olympics
[24] Paris 2024: Spain to send over 300 police to bolster Olympics' security, Le Monde, June 2024, https://www.lemonde.fr/en/europe/article/2024/06/27/paris-2024-spain-to-send-over-300-police-to-bolster-olympics-security_6675971_143.html#
[25] The Anti-Drone fight: A Key Interdepartmental Mission in Air Security for the 2024 Olympic and Paralympic, Ministère des Armées, https://www.defense.gouv.fr/en/grands-evenements-sportifs-internationaux/securisation-jeux/anti-drone-fight-key-interdepartmental-mission-air
[26]Commission invests over €1 billion in 54 ambitious defence industrial projects through the European Defence Fund, European Commission, May 2024, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_24_2666
[27]Rheinmetall and Anduril join forces to develop C-sUAS system, Anduril Industries, June 2024, https://www.anduril.com/article/rheinmetall-and-anduril-join-forces-to-develop-c-suas-system/