Region of Concern: Myanmar
Written By Cayla Lee; Edited by Jennifer Loy
Date: December 8, 2022
Namhsan Township, Shan State, Myanmar[1]
Event: On Wednesday, December 7, 2022, five military helicopters airlifted in Myanmar junta troops who led a surprise attack against the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) in the Kone Thar, Humen, and Pein Lone villages. A resident reported that the TNLA countered the attacks with reinforcements and besieged the junta troops while fighting escalated in Namhsan Township, northern Shan State. Fighting continued into the next day with further attacks and bombs dropping but TNLA spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Tar Aik Kyaw denied an attack against a TNLA base. Another resident reported that about 100 civilians were trapped in the villages attacked by the military. The TNLA reportedly killed at least 20 junta troops in the recent altercations.[2]
Significance: Myanmar’s junta troops will very likely retaliate with greater force against the opposition groups to reinforce their military rule. This will very likely prolong the conflict and set back negotiation efforts. This will very likely allow time for both the military and resistance groups to grow their resources and capacity. It is likely that the military will seek additional financial and military support from investors and civilians, likely by force. Resistance groups will very likely recruit civilians to join their collective efforts to overthrow the junta regime. This will almost certainly mobilize people to fight and will very likely expose more people to violence and increase tensions between the ruling junta and the opposition forces, which would almost certainly lead to further clashes resulting in more casualties. Poor living conditions, social and political instability, and economic downturns from the effects of the conflict will also very likely heighten overall contempt for the regime, which will make resistance groups more appealing for civilians to join. Civilians, especially children, will almost certainly continue experiencing human rights violations, such as wrongful arrests, torture, displacement, forced labor, and executions, as the military stays in power.
Recommendations: The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the UN should interfere and facilitate peace and negotiation efforts by imposing stricter measures, such as halting Chinese and Russian arms imports into Myanmar. They should call for the UN Security Council to impose a global arms embargo on Myanmar to prevent weapons suppliers from supporting the junta. ASEAN should also push for the cessation of aircraft and aviation fuel supplies that allow the junta to carry out numerous bombings. They should offer to lift Myanmar’s ban from the Association on the grounds of peaceful resolutions. ASEAN and the UN should also propose the supply of medical, food, water, and sanitation supplies to aid civilians affected by the conflict. They should support asylum seekers fleeing from Myanmar by providing housing, financial, documentation, medical, food, and water support. Finally, they should impose measures to limit the junta’s foreign revenues, including from China and ASEAN countries, made from natural gas and mining.
[1] “Namhsan Township, Shan State, Myanmar” by Google Maps
[2] Myanmar Junta Invasion Force Under Siege: Ta'ang Army, The Irrawaddy, December 2022, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/war-against-the-junta/myanmar-junta-invasion-force-under-siege-taang-army.html