William Adams
Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor
July 22, 2024
(The Weekly Threat Report is based on the Daily Threat Activity Reports from July 15 to July 22, 2024, here is a trend analysis of the threats this week. The lists are in no particular order.)
Counterterrorism Operations[1]
BLUF: Emerging threats and industry concerns are primarily centered around escalating geopolitical tensions, persistent terrorist activities, and increasing climate-related hazards. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East almost certainly pose continued risks to global stability and energy security. Maritime industries face very likely disruptions due to Houthi rebel attacks in the Red Sea, potentially leading to increased shipping costs and altered trade routes. Terrorist groups, particularly Al-Shabaab in Somalia and ISIS in Syria are likely to maintain their operational tempo, threatening regional stability and local populations. The technology sector remains highly vulnerable to cyberattacks, with a very likely chance of increased sophisticated phishing attempts and exploitation of recent vulnerabilities. Climate change-related events, such as floods in Asia and wildfires in North America, are almost certainly going to continue disrupting agriculture, transportation, and urban infrastructure. Civil unrest, especially in countries like Kenya and Bangladesh, is likely to persist, potentially impacting local economies and the retail sector. These multifaceted threats underscore the need for enhanced security measures, robust disaster preparedness, and adaptive strategies across multiple industries to mitigate risks and ensure operational resilience.
Based on the Daily Threat Activity Reports from July 15 to July 22, 2024, here is a trend analysis of the threats this week.
Top Threats of the Week:
1. Russian forces continued to launch attacks across Ukraine, including drone strikes, missile attacks, and shelling that killed and injured multiple civilians in various regions.
2. Violent protests and clashes between demonstrators and security forces occurred in several countries, including Kenya, Bangladesh, and France, resulting in deaths and injuries.
3. Israeli airstrikes targeted Gaza and Lebanon, killing civilians and damaging infrastructure, while Palestinian militants and Hezbollah launched rockets and drones at Israel.
4. Al-Shabaab carried out attacks in Somalia, including a car bombing in Mogadishu that killed at least 5 people.
5. Armed groups in the Democratic Republic of Congo, including the March 23 Movement (M23) rebels and Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), conducted attacks on villages that killed dozens of civilians.
6. Houthi rebels in Yemen fired missiles and drones at ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, as well as targets in Israel, escalating regional tensions.
7. Multiple mass shootings and violent incidents occurred in the United States, including an attack in Philadelphia that left 9 people shot.
8. Terrorist and militant groups like ISIS continued to carry out attacks in countries such as Syria, targeting military and civilian targets.
9. Extreme weather events including floods, wildfires, and storms caused deaths and destruction in various parts of the world like China, India, and France.
10. Cyberattacks and data breaches impacted organizations globally, with threat actors exploiting vulnerabilities and launching malware campaigns.
Top Countries of Concern:
1. Ukraine - Russian forces continue to launch widespread attacks across the country, killing and injuring civilians through drone strikes, missile attacks, and shelling.
2. Israel/Palestine - Ongoing conflict persists with Israeli airstrikes on Gaza and Lebanon, while Palestinian militants and Hezbollah launch rockets and drones at Israel, resulting in civilian casualties and infrastructure damage.
3. Somalia - Al-Shabaab remains active, carrying out attacks such as the car bombing in Mogadishu that killed at least 5 people.
4. Democratic Republic of Congo - Armed groups, including M23 rebels and ADF, conduct deadly attacks on villages, killing dozens of civilians.
5. Yemen - Houthi rebels escalate regional tensions by firing missiles and drones at ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, as well as targets in Israel.
6. USA - Multiple mass shootings and violent incidents occur across the country, including an attack in Philadelphia that left 9 people shot.
7. Syria - ISIS and other militant groups continue to carry out attacks targeting both military and civilian targets.
8. Bangladesh - Violent protests and clashes between demonstrators and security forces result in deaths and injuries.
9. Kenya - Anti-government protests lead to violent confrontations with security forces, causing casualties and unrest.
10. China - Extreme weather events, including floods and tropical cyclones, cause significant damage and pose risks to the population.
Top Counterterrorism Actions of the Week:
1. Somali National Army forces conducted operations against Al-Shabaab in multiple regions, including Galgaduud and Hiran, killing militants and seizing weapons and vehicles.
2. Security forces in India's Manipur state recovered large caches of arms, ammunition, and explosives from militant hideouts during multiple operations.
3. Pakistani authorities arrested an Al-Qaeda leader listed by the UN who was allegedly planning sabotage activities.
4. French police arrested multiple individuals on terrorism charges, including a man accused of trying to murder a taxi driver while expressing support for Hamas.
5. Israeli forces carried out operations in Gaza City, claiming to have killed over 150 Hamas militants and seized weapons from residential buildings.
6. Colombian security forces captured an alleged hitman of the Clan del Golfo criminal group, who was wanted for multiple crimes including the murder of a social leader.
7. The Kenyan government deployed additional security forces to its border with Somalia to conduct investigative operations and monitor cross-border movements.
8. Indonesian authorities disbanded the Jamaah Islamiyah organization, with its leaders declaring a return to recognizing the state's authority.
9. Malaysian authorities charged a restaurant worker with possession of Islamic State-related materials.
10. Security forces in the Democratic Republic of Congo conducted operations against various armed groups, including M23 rebels and ADF militants.
Based on the information provided in the Daily Threat Activity Reports from July 15 to July 22, 2024, several industries appear to be impacted by the reported threats:
1. Aviation
Miami International Airport experienced disruption and evacuation due to a stabbing incident, potentially affecting flight schedules and passenger safety.
2. Maritime
Shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden faced increased risks due to Houthi rebel attacks, potentially leading to higher insurance costs and altered shipping routes.
3. Energy
Russian drone attacks on energy infrastructure in Ukraine damaged facilities in multiple regions, potentially disrupting power supply and increasing energy insecurity.
4. Tourism
Ongoing conflicts and terrorist threats in various countries, including Kenya and Israel, may deter tourists and impact local economies dependent on tourism.
5. Technology
Cyberattacks and data breaches affected multiple organizations globally, potentially leading to financial losses and compromised user data.
6. Agriculture
Extreme weather events in various countries, including floods in China and India, likely damaged crops and disrupted agricultural activities.
7. Healthcare
The outbreak of the Nipah virus in Kerala, India, and Monkeypox in the Democratic Republic of Congo strained local healthcare systems and required increased medical resources.
8. Transportation
Road accidents in Bolivia and flooding in France disrupted transportation networks, potentially affecting supply chains and local economies.
9. Retail
Violent protests in countries like Bangladesh and Kenya may have led to temporary closures of businesses and reduced consumer activity in affected areas.
10. Media
Attacks on journalists in countries like Italy and Bangladesh highlighted the ongoing risks faced by media professionals in covering sensitive topics and events.
Based on the current threats reported in the Daily Threat Activity Reports from July 15 to July 22, 2024, the following forecast analysis of future threats can be made:
1. Terrorist and Extremist Activity
Russia will almost certainly continue its attacks on Ukrainian civilian and infrastructure targets in the coming weeks.
Al-Shabaab is very likely to attempt further attacks in Somalia, particularly in urban areas like Mogadishu.
Clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants will likely, with potential for escalation.
Major terrorist groups like Al-Shabaab and ISIS will unlikely cease operations in conflict zones in the near term.
2. Civil Unrest and Protests
Protests in Kenya are likely to continue, with a roughly even chance of further violent confrontations with security forces.
Bangladesh will very likely experience more student-led protests against government policies.
Anti-government demonstrations in various countries will unlikely subside without some form of concession or increased suppression.
3. Cybersecurity Threats
Cybercriminals will likely continue to exploit recent high-profile vulnerabilities for financial gain or data theft.
Increased phishing attempts will likely capitalize on global events and crises.
State-sponsored cyber attacks are unlikely to decrease, with a roughly even chance of escalation in cyber conflicts between rival nations.
4. Climate and Environmental Hazards
Extreme weather events are very likely to continue affecting multiple regions globally, with flooding and storms being of particular concern.
More wildfires in drought-affected areas are likely to occur, potentially threatening urban areas.
The frequency of natural disasters will unlikely decrease in the short term, almost certainly maintaining pressure on emergency response systems.
5. Geopolitical Tensions
The conflict in Yemen is very likely to continue impacting maritime security in the Red Sea and surrounding waters.
Further escalation in tensions between North and South Korea is very likely through provocative actions.
Major powers will unlikely engage in direct military confrontation, but proxy conflicts are likely to persist in various regions.
[1] Counterterrorism Operations, by William Adams, via Google Sheets