July 18- 24| Issue 29 - NORTHCOM and SOUTHCOM Teams
Jayde Dorland, Jennifer Radlinsky, Prim Thanchanok Kanlayanarak, Martina Pagani, Hae Lim Park
Elena Alice Rossetti, Editor; Radhika Ramalinga Venkatachalam, Senior Editor
Former US President Donald Trump[1]
Date: July 18, 2024
Location: USA
Parties involved: US President Joe Biden; USA; former US President Donald Trump; US House Oversight Committee; US Secret Service (USSS); US law enforcement; US citizens; US voters; left-wing theorists; right-wing theorists; far-right US political conspiracy QAnon supporters; online forum site 4chan; social network company X; video hosting service TikTok
The event: Right- and left-wing conspiracy theories are gaining traction on social media platforms following the assassination attempt on Trump, increasing the threat toward the 2024 presidential election and US citizens’ access to fair information during the presidential campaign. Trump supporters argue that the USSS failed to prevent the attempted assassination and allude to Biden orchestrating the attack. Trump critics claim that the details of the shooting suggest Trump staged it. These conspiracies are rapidly circulating online, populating sites such as 4chan, X, and TikTok.[2] Research finds far-right accounts sharing false and misleading information generate double the user engagement of regular profiles.[3]
Analysis & Implications:
Right-wing conspiracy narratives will very likely overwhelm those coming from left-wing theorists, based on the frequent prevalence and distribution of right-wing disinformation on popular platforms, likely increasing right-wing movements’ followers and pro-Trump initiatives offline. Increasing traction of these right-wing narratives will very likely push conspiratorial movements, such as QAnon, into mainstream topical conversations, having a roughly even chance of boosting advocacy among individuals sympathetic to its rhetoric. Greater prominence and support of the QAnon campaign online will likely reinforce the organization of offline demonstrations supporting Trump, which will almost certainly increase as the 2024 presidential election nears.
Persistent polarizing narratives through the 2024 election cycle have a roughly even chance of encouraging more political violence, likely complicating enhanced security protocol implementation and decreasing speaking event attendance among non-partisans. New conspiracy theory generation will almost certainly continue targeting security protocols for in-person events while awaiting feedback from the House Oversight Committee review. Security revisions, such as increasing a protectee’s USSS agents and the security perimeter at rallies, have a roughly even chance of mitigating risks and ensuring safety through the election period. Online conspiracy theories and threats have a roughly even chance of decreasing voter turn-out at physical election sites, likely increasing mail-in balloting as a public safety measure.
Date: July 21, 2024
Location: Sinai District, Cauca Department, Colombia
Parties involved: Colombia; Colombian government; National Army of Colombia; National Police of Colombia; Argelia citizens; Colombian Indigenous communities; left-wing FARC dissident group Carlos Patino Front; humanitarian non-governmental organization (NGO) Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF); other humanitarian NGOs; video hosting service TikTok
The event: An armed conflict between Carlos Patino Front and the National Army broke out in the Sinai District, increasing tensions and violence. Carlos Patino Front created illegal checkpoints on roads in southern Cauca and vandalized private and public vehicles. One dissident discussed this with local citizens, including minors, stating, “We are civilians, just like you, the only thing that differentiates us is… the thoughts we have, of our revolutionary struggle for a just Colombia, with peace with social justice.”[4] Combined police and National Army efforts resulted in the capture of a dissident and the killing of another.[5]
Analysis & Implications:
FARC’s illegal checkpoints and roadway landmines will very likely increase humanitarian missions’ risks, likely limiting workers’ safe transportation routes and citizens’ access to aid. NGOs such as MSF will very likely reconsider and curtail their healthcare programs and aid distributions, almost certainly without security guarantees from the Colombian government. FARC’s forced confinement tactic, holding civilians against their will in their homes, will almost certainly deny their ability to move freely and seek food, clean water, and medical attention. Reduced mobility will very likely contribute to increasing food insecurity, chronic illnesses, and disease outbreaks from treatable causes, such as COVID-19 and malaria.
The Carlos Patino Front will very likely seek to recruit new members following the loss of dissidents in the clashes, increasing and diversifying recruitment tactics to maintain group prominence. Dissidents will very likely heighten their presence within communities and regularly discuss with locals to promote their ideology, almost certainly attempting to attract individuals inclined by the promise of a continuous steady income or holding similar beliefs. Carlos Patino Front recruiters will likely leverage social media platforms, including TikTok, to increase its appeal to younger audiences, almost certainly glorifying life as a dissident to boost engagement and prospective recruits. Failure to attract recruits will almost certainly lead to dissidents forcibly recruiting vulnerable individuals in Cauca, such as minors and those from Indigenous communities and poverty-stricken households, very likely exploiting their financial insecurity and fears of repercussions if they choose to flee.
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[1] President Trump visits South Korea, by Staff Sgt. James Miller, licensed under Public Domain (The appearance of US Department of Defense [DoD] visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement)
[2] ‘One screen, two movies’: Conflicting conspiracy theories emerge from the Trump rally shooting, AP, July 2024, https://apnews.com/article/trump-assassination-attempt-x-biden-misinformation-bf345b7cd72cc8c243084fe6ba8fa53a
[3] Far-Right Misinformation Is Thriving On Facebook. A New Study Shows Just How Much, NPR, March 2021, https://www.npr.org/2021/03/06/974394783/far-right-misinformation-is-thriving-on-facebook-a-new-study-shows-just-how-much
[4] Reportan combates entre Ejército y disidencias de Mordisco durante la noche de este domingo en zona rural de Argelia, Cauca, Semana, July 2024, https://www.semana.com/nacion/articulo/reportan-combates-entre-ejercito-y-disidencias-de-mordisco-durante-la-noche-de-este-domingo-en-zona-rural-de-argelia/202421/ (translated by Jennifer Radlinsky)
[5] Ibid