July 25-31, 2024 | Issue 30 - CENTCOM and PACOM
Mrinmoy Routh, Giorgia Cito, Samuel Pearson, Agathe Labadi, Léonard Vacelet–Revolio
Anya Golend-Pratt, Editor; Brantley Williams, Senior Editor
Lashio attack as part of Operation 1027, Myanmar[1]
Date: July 25, 2024
Location: Lashio, Shan State, Myanmar
Parties involved: Myanmar; Myanmar military junta ruling the country, Tatmadaw; Tatmadaw soldiers; a coalition of Myanmar rebels, the Brotherhood Alliance; anti-junta armed group Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA); anti-junta armed group the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA); rebel group fighting alongside MNDAA Bamar People’s Liberation Army (BPLA); other rebel groups throughout Myanmar; opposition group claiming leadership of all anti-junta forces, the National Unity Government (NUG); local anti-junta militias nominally under NUG command People’s Defense Forces (PDF); Myanmar civilians; Chinese government
The event: On Thursday morning, the MNDAA, alongside other rebel groups such as the BPLA, seized the Tatmadaw junta military's North Eastern Command headquarters in Lashio. Anti-junta forces capturing the Lashio base marks the first defeat of a Tatmadaw regional headquarters since the junta's coup in early 2021. The MNDAA announced their seizure of headquarters after 23 days of fighting.[2] Junta forces subsequently re-entered the regional headquarters, where fighting continued, with resistance groups aiming to complete their capture of Lashio and its military bases.[3]
Analysis & Implications:
Brotherhood Alliance’s members, such as the MNDAA and TNLA, other rebel groups, and the PDF, will very likely continue pressuring the junta by seizing strategic locations and resources in the Shan State and Mandalay Region. Anti-junta forces will very likely seek control of the ruby mines in Mogok township, which will very likely enable their acquisition of arms and ammunition to continue fighting the junta. Continued fighting in Lashio will likely slow the MNDAA and allies’ advance, but anti-junta gains will likely include Mogok township. Anti-junta forces’ continued successes will likely threaten the junta’s control of northern Myanmar and its credibility domestically and internationally.
The Tatmadaw junta will likely try to elicit a fight or flight response from the Myanmar rebels in northern Shan State and Mandalay Region, likely allowing the junta to reclaim critical strongholds. The Tatmadaw will almost certainly retaliate with airstrikes and increase its use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), very likely putting civilians at risk. The junta forces will almost certainly reinforce security measures in strategic areas such as Mandalay to mitigate the vulnerability of bases in the area. Tatmadaw soldiers will likely set up roadblocks, deploy more troops and armored vehicles, and conduct Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) activities to monitor the rebel troop movements.
Date: July 29, 2024
Location: Deir Ezzor Province, Syria
Parties involved: President of Syria Bashar al-Asad; Syria; Syrian regime; Syrian regime forces; Syrian Defense Forces (SDF); international coalition forces in Syria; Iranian-backed militias; US; US military; Israel; Hezbollah; Lebanon; Iran
The event: US forces have struck areas around Hatlah and Marat villages in eastern Deir Ezzor Province, territory where the Syrian regime and Iranian-backed militias control.[4] Before the US operation, Iranian-backed militias moved their operations headquarters and weapons to new bases in eastern Deir Ezzor. These strikes and movements follow escalating tensions and missile attacks by Iranian-backed militias on the military base at the Koniko gas field, where the international coalition reinforced its military forces and their SDF allies, including military vehicles and heavy equipment from Al-Hasakah.[5]
Analysis & Implications:
Strikes between the US military, SDF, and Iranian-backed militias will likely increase in the Deir Ezzor Province. Iranian-backed militias will likely conduct new operations to secure their strategic locations and arsenal. The militias will likely conduct rocket strikes against US and SDF assets close to the line separating the respective sides’ controlled zones. The militias’ recent reorganization and operations will very likely indicate a high risk of further strike escalation near Deir Ezzor City and the Koniko base.
The US and SDF forces in Deir Ezzor Province will very likely increase combat readiness and strengthen their military bases. The US will very likely seek to mitigate future strike risks from Iranian-backed militias by enhancing air defense capabilities through increased satellite surveillance and additional weapon systems and show of force operations with US fighter jets. These operations will unlikely deter future attacks, given that Iranian-backed militias likely gain influence and credibility by attacking US forces and their allies.
Iranian-backed militias will very likely remain a source of danger for US forces in Syria. It is almost certain that Iranian-backed militias will continue to be supplied and supported by the Iranian government as part of its strategy for regional power and security. Iran will likely increase its support for militias in Syria to pressure US forces and raise the military costs of US support for Israel. Iran’s aims will likely incentivize greater violence by Iranian-backed militias in Syria to draw the US and allied forces further into regional conflicts, undermining support for further intervention through increased costs.
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[1] Giorgia Cito, Lashio attack as part of Operation 1027, Myanmar, July 2, 2024
[2] Milestone as MNDAA Claims Capture of Myanmar Junta’s NE Command in Lashio, The Irrawaddy, July 2024, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/war-against-the-junta/milestone-as-mndaa-claims-capture-of-myanmar-juntas-ne-command-in-lashio.html
[3] Fighting Continues in Lashio as Myanmar Junta Troops Try to Retake NE Command, The Irrawaddy, July 2024, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/fighting-continues-in-lashio-as-myanmar-junta-troops-try-to-retake-ne-command.html
[4] As confrontations escalate | “International Coalition” she-lls areas held by Iranian militias east of Deir Ezzor, Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, July 2024, https://www.syriahr.com/en/340034/
[5] Fearing US response to repeated targeting of “Koniko” base | Iranian militias evacuate headquarters and transfer weapons in Al-Bokamal, Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, July 2024, https://www.syriahr.com/en/340043/