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Jun 147 min read

PSA: PARIS OLYMPICS 2024 VISITORS BE ON ALERT: HEATWAVES, WILDFIRES, AND DISEASE TRANSMISSION ARE VERY LIKELY THROUGHOUT AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER

Jennifer Radlinsky, Jayde Dorland, Emergency Management Health and Hazards and Counter Threat Strategic Communications Team

Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor

June 13, 2024


Paris Olympics Health Hazards[1]


Introduction

Extreme heat, natural disasters, and health hazards challenge the Paris Olympics 2024 planners as they implement tactics to secure visitors’ health and safety and mitigate game disruptions. Higher than average temperatures increase health concerns for Olympic spectators, risking heatstroke and death.[2] Europe has been experiencing warmer temperatures for the past five summers.[3] The frequency of wildfires brought on by heatwaves and dry conditions accelerated hazards that are experienced in the summer.[4] Disease transmission through foreign travelers with viruses such as COVID-19 prompted The International Olympic Committee (IOC) to begin surveillance and have testing available to mitigate contraction and spread.[5] Increasing infestations of the Asian tiger mosquito in the summertime and cities’ abundance of standing water create an environment where disease outbreaks, such as dengue, zika, and chikungunya can occur. Authorities’ failure to implement mitigation techniques to halt mosquito breeding and bacteriological spread can significantly impact the games, putting athletes and visitors at risk.[6]


Summary

The Paris Olympics 2024 begins on July 26, lasting through to August 11, followed by the Paralympics lasting from August 28 to September 8.[7] Fifteen thousand athletes are set to compete in 800 sporting events supported by 45,000 volunteers, which is expected to attract 15 million visitors.[8] A majority of visitors are expected to travel from other French regions but 13 percent are predicted to travel to France from overseas, increasing the risk of pathogen transmission during the Olympic events.[9] France’s Directorate General for Health (DGS), inaugurated a crisis health center on March 1, 2024, committed to identifying health risks associated with the Olympics. The DGS has identified 40 hazards with a specific health component and regularly updates the Interior Ministry’s Olympic Intelligence Center on their criticality.[10] Pathogens spread by anthropods, such as mosquitos and ticks, are a notable health concern, particularly dengue which has increased in cases across Europe. In 2023, France recorded 2000 cases of imported dengue and 40 indigenous cases.[11] Other known concerns include gastrointestinal illnesses linked to poor food safety and COVID-19 transmission.[12] 


The Counterterrorism, Group (CTG) assesses significant heatwaves will cause a major health threat. In the past five years, Europe has experienced eight heatwaves, with three occurring in 2022.[13] European meteorologists' analysis identified an above-normal temperature trend during July and August,[14] with a four to five times greater heatwave chance during the 2024 games than 100 years ago, when Paris last hosted the Olympics.[15] Climate researchers are studying data regarding the heat and humidity’s effect on athletes and spectators during the 2021 Tokyo Olympics to simulate effective responses to prolonged heatwaves during the 2024 games. Minimal green space and Paris’ dense population contribute to the containment of heat, restricting the escape of trapped air through the open atmosphere.[16] Regions experiencing prolonged above-average temperatures are more prone to reduced soil and vegetation moisture, increasing the likelihood of wildfires. France, like other European countries, has endured high numbers of wildfires, with 8,615 recorded in 2023 and 14,290 in 2022.[17] France’s average highest temperature for July and August is 77F followed by a decrease in average peak temperatures in September, falling to 69.8F.[18]


Hostile actors have previously exploited French health hazards and emergencies in France in information warfare strategies to undermine state capabilities. A notable example includes the Russian campaign taking place in Fall 2023 to exacerbate the bedbug outbreak across Paris and other French cities. Social media platforms became inundated with claims of a mass outbreak of the parasite which did not match authoritative inspection into national cases. These claims were accompanied with narratives that increased sightings correlate to an influx of Ukrainian refugee’s in to France.[19] A similar campaign occurred in March 2024, where narratives claimed France was experiencing a tuberculosis epidemic because of the country’s intake of Ukrainian refugees.[20] The creation of such narratives, and their secondary dissemination by individuals unaware of its inaccuracy heightens the impact on countries, their governments, and other relevant authorities.


Analysis

Olympic venues with water sports will very likely provide mosquitoes with a breeding ground, likely prolonging the period for transmission and spread. Standing water in these locations will likely present the largest challenge for controlling the mosquito population. Health officials’ surveillance is unlikely to eliminate disease spread, with personnel very likely depending on citizens and visitors to dump standing water to minimize breeding locations. Government and official health agencies’ promotion of safe insecticide use will likely motivate widespread adoption efforts. Increasing temperatures across France and within Paris will almost certainly reinforce citizens’ storage of water to combat potential water scarcity. Stored water in residential areas will very likely heighten the distribution of breeding mosquitoes across the region, having a roughly even chance of increasing the number of known arthropod-related disease cases.


Outdoor and non-air conditioned venues very likely present the highest heat-related illness risk, likely affecting individuals with pre-existing medical conditions, like heart or pulmonary disease. Onsite medical personnel will very likely become quickly overwhelmed with calls for overheating, likely unable to respond to emergencies and render timely care. Hospitals will very likely experience higher than normal patient influx, likely adding to the average number of people seeking care. Patient waiting times to see medical professionals will almost certainly increase, with a roughly even chance of raising mild medical situations’ severity. Increased energy use for cooling units and appliances, like refrigeration units, will very likely cause system overload, likely causing brownouts and blackouts.


There is a roughly even chance of gastrointestinal illness transmission between Paris 2024 visitors, with bacteriological transfer between humans increasing in highly-populated public spaces. Interruptions in energy services will likely cause refrigeration units to fail, almost certainly leading to food spoilage and increasing the risk of contracting foodborne illness. Visitors are unlikely to seek medical care in these instances, likely overlooking mild symptoms and spreading bacteria throughout their accommodation, increasing cases. Insufficient hygienic resource availability, like hand washing stations and antibacterial sanitizers, will likely prolong illnesses, very likely exposing visitors to additional harmful bacteria and infections.


Paris’ urbanization and lack of green spaces likely lower the risk of wildfires developing. However, prolonged high temperatures, dry ground, and strong winds will almost certainly create the conditions required for wildfires. The high influx of visitors in Paris during the 2024 Olympics will almost certainly increase the rate of littering across the city, greatly increasing fire risk. Wildfires in Paris will very likely cause disruption to the Olympics, causing potential transportation and pedestrian diversions to minimize secondary human health impacts, including smoke inhalation and fire spread.


Instances of health situations requiring emergency management response will almost certainly reinforce malign information operations’ narrative that France is incapable of hosting a large-scale event. As health-risking events occur, they will very likely be accompanied by disinformation campaigns to encourage visitor and citizen confusion and incite distrust toward French authorities. Campaigns will almost certainly attempt to escalate events, making them appear more critical than reality. These narratives will very likely overwhelm social media platforms heavily used by Olympic visitors, including X, Facebook, and Instagram, with the exploitation of decentralized applications, such as Telegram, also likely.


Recommendations

CTG recommends all visitors and citizens in Paris remain hydrated when spectating the Olympic games, especially if individuals drink alcohol during their visit. Visitors should seek out the nearest drink fountains and free drinking water points at event locations and note their location for easy referral. Drinking water stations should be clean in appearance, and when applicable, visitors should use fountains for filling up water bottles only. CTG recommends non-French citizens check the water source of drinking fountains and only drink from those that offer filtered water. In the case of above-average temperatures, CTG recommends local citizens who store water for their households ensure supplies are collected in a sealable container with no defects.


CTG recommends visitors wash their hands with antibacterial soap at regular intervals of their day when traveling around Paris for the Olympic games, especially before consuming food and drinks and after passing through areas with high touch points, including public transport and locations with numerous door handles. Visitors should also carry antibacterial hand sanitizer in Paris and ensure its frequent application. CTG recommends wearing face masks in densely populated areas to reduce the likelihood of human-to-human disease transmission. However, this depends on user discretion, and individuals should be mindful of wearing face coverings in high temperatures as this can obstruct fresh air intake and induce heat exhaustion.


CTG recommends visitors to Paris dispose of their rubbish in the bins provided. Items that cause significant fire risks, such as cigarette butts should be completely extinguished before they are discarded to ensure fires do not begin in waste containers. Visitors purchasing glass bottles for refreshments should be vigilant of their use in high temperatures and direct sunlight. Glass can act like a magnifying glass and trigger burning on a reflected spot if left stationary for a long period. CTG recommends visitors staying in camping grounds or attending barbeque areas outside of Paris do not leave camping fires or barbeques unattended and be mindful of the flammable materials around the fire so sparks do not ignite organic matter.


CTG recommends visitors exercise caution when viewing Olympics-related media online and fact-check all information, especially when critical events are involved. Visitors should refer to official broadcasts distributed by the French government and other relevant authorities, or official accounts associated with the Olympics committee and other organizers to ensure they consume the most accurate information. CTG recommends individuals seeing potentially false or misleading information on social media platforms report and flag content to the service provider to alert them of the platform’s exploitation by malign actors.

 

[1] Health around the Eiffel Tower, generated by a third party image database (created by AI)

[3] Hottest summer ever? Experts reveal what could be in store for Europe in the next few months, Euronews, May 2024, https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/05/27/hottest-summer-ever-experts-reveal-what-could-be-in-store-for-europe-in-the-next-few-month

[4] Wildfire season is upon us: Here's what the European Union is putting in place, Euronews, June 2024, https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/06/01/wildfire-season-is-upon-us-heres-what-the-european-union-is-putting-in-place

[5] Paris 2024: How the Olympics are preparing for the risk of epidemics, Le Monde, April 2024, https://www.lemonde.fr/en/health/article/2024/04/18/paris-2024-how-the-olympics-are-preparing-for-the-risk-of-epidemics_6668791_14.html

[6] Race is on to make Paris Olympics mosquito-free, Medical Xpress, March 2024, https://medicalxpress.com/news/2024-03-paris-olympics-mosquito-free.html#google_vignette

[8] Paris aims to host the most sustainable Olympics ever – here's how the city is preparing, World Economic Forum, March 2024, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/03/paris-most-sustainable-olympics-2024/ 

[9] Paris 2024 Olympics: How authorities are preparing for the risk of epidemics, Le Monde, April 2024, https://www.lemonde.fr/en/health/article/2024/04/18/paris-2024-how-the-olympics-are-preparing-for-the-risk-of-epidemics_6668791_14.html 

[10] Ibid

[11] Ibid

[12] Ibid

[14] Hottest summer ever? Experts reveal what could be in store for Europe in the next few months, Euronews, May 2024, https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/05/27/hottest-summer-ever-experts-reveal-what-could-be-in-store-for-europe-in-the-next-few-month

[16] Heat wave risk hovers over Paris Olympics, phys.org, February 2024, https://phys.org/news/2024-02-paris-olympics.html

[19] France blames bed bug panic on Russian 'disinformation,' Radio France Internacionale, March 2024, https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20240302-france-blames-bed-bug-panic-on-russian-disinformation 

[20] Russian propaganda usurps RFI report and French armed forces website, France 24, March 2024, https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/truth-or-fake/20240328-russian-propaganda-usurps-rfi-and-french-ministry-of-arms-website 

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