Jennifer Radlinsky, Camilla Raffaelli, William Adams, NORTHCOM Team
Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor
October 7, 2024
Police Vehicles[1]
Introduction
A Joint Intelligence Bulletin from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) warned law enforcement and citizens of the increasing potential for attacks on Jewish, Muslim, and Arab communities.[2] Public safety officials expressed concern that violent extremists in the US are planning and may carry out attacks as tensions rise related to the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel anniversary and the upcoming holiday season.[3] Public gatherings in open spaces such as faith services are among the vulnerable targets where attackers may threaten the public and stage violent actions.[4] Lone-wolf threats will very likely be the most common form of attack that police and the public are aware of, yet law enforcement will be very unlikely to predict or track. Law enforcement will likely face challenges in securing many locations with less available manpower while very likely responding to a high number of assistance calls. Increasing activity on encrypted messaging apps will very likely focus on violent extremists' call-to-action to commit attacks in the US, likely motivating self-radicalized individuals to accelerate their plans for attacks.
Summary
The one-year anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israel is October 7 and law enforcement is calling for vigilance around religious institutions and large gatherings in the Jewish, Arab, and Muslim communities in the US.[5] On October 7, 2023, Hamas militants attacked southern Israel and killed 1,200 people before taking nearly 250 hostages.[6] Israel responded with military actions that killed about 42,000 Palestinians in the last year.[7] The war has extended to Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon trading missile strikes and Iran backing Hezbollah in its efforts against the Israelis.[8] One of the Israeli airstrikes killed Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, along with several others in subsequent military operations in Beirut.[9]
Police in New York responded to several bomb threats targeting synagogues across the state in the past week. Law enforcement in Chicago is focused on threats to houses of worship and increased patrols within the last few weeks in anticipation of the Jewish High Holidays.[10] Minneapolis, Minnesota police are placing staff on standby status and increasing undercover units around synagogues and community centers.[11] On October 4, 2024, they arrested a 21-year-old on suspicion of calling in threats to synagogues and trying to evade detection by using a voice-altering app.[12]
Analysis
Politically engaged social media users will likely exploit the October 7 attack anniversary to cause harm to communities close to both parties involved in the conflict. Synagogues and mosques will very likely receive online threats, requiring law enforcement to increase security and protection measures for at-risk communities. Online discourse concerning the events of October 7 will very likely further polarize individuals, very likely heightening pre-existing tensions. Social media platforms such as X and Facebook will very likely experience increasing misinformation and harmful meme posts, with a roughly even chance of leading to real-life actions, such as acts of direct violence, in response to the online rhetoric.
Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) supporters will likely invoke anti-immigration, racist, and antisemitic rhetoric online, likely attracting the attention of users who already share the same views. Authoritative figures and right-wing influencers will likely echo and amplify a similar message about the dangers of immigration, validating the beliefs of extremists. Extremist groups will likely use online rhetoric and the endorsement by influencers for recruitment, likely moving communications to more private and encrypted apps after an initial show of interest. Multiple threat actors targeting the Jewish, Arab, and Muslim communities will likely decrease tracking of the perpetrators, very likely encouraging right-wing and white supremacist actors to act on plans of violence offline. Right-wing extremists will likely use attacks from radicalized individuals to add proof to their contentions on immigration and Israeli support in the US.
Increased security around vulnerable targets will likely present operational challenges for law enforcement. More officers dedicated to security in response to threats will very likely divert resources from other locations, likely leaving some areas open to attacks. Resource-heavy law enforcement activities will likely deplete budgets quicker with a roughly even chance of private security forces being used by synagogues and community centers to ensure safety. Non-professional security will likely lack operational and crisis management knowledge, with a roughly even chance of inhibiting police actions while responding to an attack. A growing number of hoax or swatting attacks, false threats or sending law enforcement to a location where no attack is occurring, will likely distract from more credible threats.
Increases in global antisemitic and anti-Mulim threats logged by law enforcement in the US will likely continue at a steady pace and will almost certainly continue through the holidays. Targets will very likely receive bomb threats, likely increasing as events unfold in Israel, Lebanon, and Palestine. Radicalized individuals who display signs of being on the pathway to violence such as researching and planning an attack will almost certainly be inspired by the significance of the October 7 anniversary, likely taking the opportunity to attempt a violent act. They will very likely prefer to begin with an online or phoned-in threat, almost certainly gauging law enforcement response. Physical attack methods have a roughly even chance of being unsophisticated and using readily available items like a knife for stabbing or using a vehicle to run down pedestrians on crowded streets.
Recommendations
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends that law enforcement dedicate additional resources to investigating the dark web and social media intelligence (SOCMINT). Law enforcement should deploy undercover officers to targeted locations. Canine units should assist uniformed officers in bomb component detection and sweeping locations for safe entry. Law enforcement and security agencies should seek expert consultants who are subject matter experts (SMEs) in the communication and movement of extremist groups. Analysts who can provide actionable and real-time intelligence should be integrated into monitoring teams.
CTG recommends that religious communities should stay on high alert for possible targeted attacks and maintain situational awareness. Leaders of Jewish, Arab, and Muslim communities should encourage people to report suspicious behavior to law enforcement. These communities should establish and maintain open dialogue relationships with law enforcement and participate in training to be able to identify key indicators of extremist behavior and proper responses. Technologies used to secure synagogues and other gathering places such as metal detectors, surveillance cameras, and portable panic buttons should be invested in and funds from local governments made available through grants to defray the costs of these upgrades.
[1] Police, generated by a third party database
[2] Anniversary of 7 October 2023 HAMAS Attacks May Motivate Individuals to Violence in the United States, Joint Intelligence Bulletin, October 2, 2024
[3] Ibid
[4] Police step up patrols around synagogues ahead of Jewish holidays, News Nation, October 2024, https://www.newsnationnow.com/religion/police-patrols-synagogues/
[5] Anniversary of 7 October 2023 HAMAS Attacks May Motivate Individuals to Violence in the United States, Joint Intelligence Bulletin, October 2, 2024
[6] Thousands around the world protest Middle East war as Oct 7 anniversary nears, Reuters, October 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/anniversary-gaza-war-draws-thousands-pro-palestinian-protesters-around-world-2024-10-05/
[7] Ibid
[8] How Israel-Hezbollah conflict escalated to a ground invasion, BBC, October 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj9jwkppnd1o
[9] Israel kills Hezbollah leader Nasrallah in airstrike, Reuters, September 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-airstrikes-rock-beirut-hezbollah-command-centre-hit-2024-09-28/
[10] Police step up patrols around synagogues ahead of Jewish holidays, News Nation, October 2024, https://www.newsnationnow.com/religion/police-patrols-synagogues/
[11] Minneapolis police announce uptick in security around synagogues during Jewish holidays, ABC5 KTSP, October 2024, https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/man-arrested-for-reportedly-threatening-a-minneapolis-synagogue/
[12] Ibid
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