November 14-20, 2024 | Issue 46 - PACOM and Weapons/Tactics
Zara Price, Agathe Labadi, Nicholas Novak, W/T
Angelina Sammarco, Editor; Alya Fathia Fitri, Senior Editor
M119 A3 Howitzer and Skydio Drone[1]
Date: November 14, 2024
Location: North Korea
Parties involved: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un; North Korea; North Korean military; Russia; Russian military forces; Ukraine; Ukrainian military forces; South Korea; South Korean government; South Korean military; Japan; US
The event: Kim Jong Un oversaw suicide drone tests and commanded the large-scale production of the weapon amid the quickly developing military cooperation with Russia, emphasizing that the global emergence of such drones necessitates an urgent revision of military strategy.[2]
Analysis & Implications:
North Korea’s partnership with Russia and the deployment of North Korean troops to Kursk, Russia, are very likely to result in the implementation of North Korean suicide drones in a limited capacity against Ukrainian forces. The use of North Korean drones is very likely intended to fine-tune the drones' design, improve operational effectiveness, and provide North Korean troops with combat experience in using drone technology. Such developments are likely to enhance North Korea’s capability to refine and proliferate drone technologies, very likely increasing the likelihood of their acquisition by non-state actors through illicit trade networks. These trends are very likely to undermine international sanctions and are likely to require North Korea to transport drones via ports such as Dunai in Eastern Russia.
The deployment of suicide drones across the Korean Peninsula is very likely to elevate the threat to South Korea’s critical infrastructure, including government and military installations. These drones’ capability to infiltrate restricted airspace will very likely force South Korea to enhance its counter-drone technologies and strengthen its surveillance and reconnaissance missions around North Korea. This escalation will likely trigger a regional arms race, very likely worsening security tensions and reducing the chance of diplomatic resolutions.
The development and deployment of advanced suicide drones by North Korea are very likely to influence regional alliances with the US, and military planning such as AUKUS. Neighboring countries, including South Korea and Japan, are very likely to deepen their defense collaborations with the US and other allies to counter the growing threat. This alignment is likely to result in joint investments in counter-drone technologies, intelligence-sharing, and regional defense exercises.
Date: November 16, 2024
Location: Dr. Abdul Kalam Island, India
Parties involved: India; Government of India; Indian Armed Forces; Pakistan; Government of Pakistan; Pakistan Armed Forces; Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI); China; Government of the People’s Republic of China; People’s Liberation Army (PLA);Ministry of State Security (MSS)
The event: India tested a long-range domestically developed hypersonic missile capable of carrying payloads to targets over 1,500 km (930 miles) away.[3]
Analysis & Implications:
India’s hypersonic missile capability will likely shift the strategic focus in South Asia toward preemptive defense measures such as cyber warfare, early warning systems, space-based tracking, or rapid response interceptors during the missiles’ glide phase, almost certainly increasing regional militarization. The perception of reduced response times and heightened vulnerability to hypersonic strikes will likely push neighboring countries, particularly Pakistan and China, to adopt more aggressive early-warning systems and preemptive defense postures. This shift could likely lead to the deployment of advanced surveillance by the ISI and MSS, improved missile defense systems, and the conduct of regular live-fire missile interception or forward-deployed assets. Such measures will likely increase military activities by the PLA and Pakistan Armed Forces and heighten alert statuses along contested borders, likely creating an environment where both parties misinterpret routine actions as aggressive and causing unintended escalation.
The reduced reaction times and advanced maneuverability of these missiles will likely increase the risk of miscalculation during crises, as the speed of hypersonic missiles significantly shortens the window for decision-making, likely forcing leaders, particularly between nuclear-armed adversaries like India and Pakistan, to respond with incomplete or inaccurate intelligence. These weapons will almost certainly complicate arms control efforts, as existing agreements very likely lack provisions for hypersonic technology, making future negotiations very unlikely to succeed. The absence of arms control agreements for these new missiles and the inability to determine the payload or intent behind a hypersonic missile launch almost certainly increases the risk of overreactions, where there is a roughly even chance that a perceived threat escalates into a full-scale conflict in the region.
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[1] ‘M119 A3 Howitzer and Skydio Drone’ by DVIDS, licensed under Public Domain
[2]North Korea leader Kim orders mass production of suicide drones, KCNA says, Reuters, November 2024 https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-leader-kim-orders-mass-production-suicide-drones-yonhap-says-2024-11-14/
[3] India's successful test of hypersonic missile puts it among elite group, Reuters, November 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-successful-test-hypersonic-missile-puts-it-among-elite-group-2024-11-17/