(The Situation Update Report [SUR] is a near real-time brief of a possible threat or situation being monitored by The Counter Threat Center. The information is accurate at the time of reporting, but may be subject to change.)
Ludovica Leccese, Ektoras Papadimitriou
Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor
October 12, 2023
Damascus Airport[1]
Current Situation: The Israeli Air Force targeted the Damascus and Aleppo Airports in Syria. The attacks inflicted severe damages to the venues, rendering both out of service. The attacks occurred while a plane operated by the Iranian Mahar Air was en route to Damascus and was forced to alter its course.[2]
Day/Time of event: October 12, 2023
What is the current threat:
Israel’s military actions against Syria will very likely trigger a response from Syria’s allies, including Iran and its proxies. Russia’s troops in the country will likely be affected. This will likely lead to a cycle of retaliatory actions, very likely increasing the risk of a broader conflict. Iran, Hezbollah, and other pro-Iranian groups will likely target Israeli military installations through southern Lebanon and the Golan Heights in response.
Russia will likely attempt to carry out cyber attacks against Israel’s critical infrastructures to retaliate and support Syria. Likely cyberattacks will likely disrupt operations and introduce safety risks for travelers, airline staff, and people on the ground.
Israel will almost certainly continue its attempts to disrupt Iranian logistics in Syria through aerial attacks, very likely leading to civilian casualties. A prolonged conflict will very likely exacerbate the humanitarian crises in both countries, very likely increasing the need for the international community’s intervention.
The escalation of violence will very likely hinder peace initiatives and negotiations. A regional conflict will almost certainly complicate the position of international mediators and organizations, who will likely need to recalibrate their strategies to address the changed dynamics.
Who will it directly impact:
Travelers and staff at Damascus and Aleppo Airports
Syrian citizens
Syrian government
Israeli forces
[1] “Damascus International Airport” by Bangin licensed under Creative Commons
[2] OSINTdefender, on X, via CyberHUMINT