October 12-19, 2022 | Issue 22 - EUCOM
Peter Roberto, Matt Bauer, Pètra van de Gevel, EUCOM Team
Claudia Santillan-Vazquez, Editor; Manja Vitasovic, Senior Editor
Date: October 17, 2022
Location: Near the Evros River, Greece
Parties involved: Greek government; Greek authorities; Greece; irregular migrants; asylum seekers; refugees; Turkey; Syria; Afghanistan; EU; The European and Coast Guard Agency (Frontex); United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)
The event: The Greek government reported 92 migrants were found almost naked and bruised after crossing the Evros River from Turkey into Greece and accused Turkey of instrumentalizing irregular migration.[2]
Analysis & Implications:
Greece will very likely increase border control along the Evros River and the Aegean Sea to deter irregular migration from Turkey, as migrants will very likely try to enter Greece using different and new routes. Frontex will likely catch and detain them while Greek authorities initiate deportation procedures, very likely increasing migrants’ vulnerability to human trafficking and sexual exploitation upon their return to their country of origin. In order to access other EU countries, migrants will likely try to enter Turkey multiple times, and the number of injuries and deaths among migrants on their journey through the Evros River and the Aegean Sea will likely increase due to boats likely sinking. Greece-Turkey relations will likely deteriorate as a result of both countries accusing each other of these future incidents, likely decreasing efficient cooperation on migration management.
Migration attempts from Turkey to Greece will almost certainly continue, as migrants will almost certainly continue to flee their home countries, like Syria and Afghanistan. The Greek government will very likely continue adopting anti-immigration policies, like forced deportations and expelling asylum seekers after their asylum request was denied, likely to counter migration from Turkey. The EU and UNHCR will very likely pressure the Greek government to stop forced deportations and asylum rejections, as human rights norms violations, like the prohibition of collective expulsion under the European Convention on Human Rights and the right to seek asylum under EU asylum law. They will likely do this by threatening to withhold economic assistance, reducing trade, and increasing condemnation on public platforms, likely causing the Greek government to ease its anti-immigration policies to prevent reduced economic assistance.
Date: October 18, 2022
Location: Ukraine
Parties involved: Ukraine; Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky; Ukrainian military; Ukrainian civilians; Ukrainian refugees; Russia; Russian military; EU; US; Poland; Romania
The event: Russia hit power plants in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, like Zhytomyr, with drones, missiles, and repurposed air defense systems. Zelensky stated that the Russian strikes resulted in massive blackouts across Ukraine, compromising nearly one-third of the country’s power plants.[3]
Analysis & Implications:
The Russian strikes will almost certainly reduce Ukrainian civilians’ access to water, electricity, and heating. This will very likely decrease civilians’ ability to cook and refrigerate food, heat homes, and access clean drinking water. The lack of basic necessities will very likely increase disease and malnourishment, likely causing many Ukrainians to seek refuge in EU countries, like Poland and Romania.
Given the airstrikes hit intended targets, the Russian military will very likely use drones, missiles, and repurposed air defense systems to target Ukrainian military barracks and weaponry, like High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), in eastern and southern Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense will unlikely neutralize many of the strikes, as Ukraine very unlikely has air defense systems at all military bases and units in southern and eastern Ukraine. Russian strikes on barracks and weapons units will likely diminish Ukraine's military counteroffensive effectiveness, as the Ukrainian military will likely face military resource losses. Ukraine will almost certainly request the delivery of air defense systems, like National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMAS), from the US and EU to counter the loss of military equipment and the expansion of strikes.
[1] Dan Flanagan via Google Earth
[2] UN "distressed" after Greece finds scores of 'naked and bruised' migrants on Turkish border, Euronews, October 2022
[3] Ukraine’s power, water supplies under Russian attack again, AP News, October 2022 https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-business-government-and-politics-1f00824f6cab639db5654cf0fb9e9e99