August 22-27, 2024 | Issue 34 - EUCOM/AFRICOM
Joe Pollard, Leon Kille, Madeline Thompson, Mrinmoy Routh
Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor
NATO Members Flags[1]
Date: August 22, 2024
Location: Geilenkirchen, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany
Parties involved: Germany; NATO; NATO Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) fleet; NATO intelligence; NATO personnel; Russia; Russian-aligned saboteurs
The event: The Geilenkirchen NATO air base enhanced its security level following intelligence indicating a potential threat to the base.[2] The base hosts a NATO AWACS fleet and authorities increased the threat level to Charlie, the second-highest NATO threat level “indicating that some form of terrorist action against NATO organizations or personnel is highly likely."[3] A trespassing incident occurred previously at the base, but it is unclear whether this is connected to the decision to increase the threat level. On August 23, NATO returned the security level to Bravo +.[4]
Analysis & Implications:
NATO likely raised the threat level to Charlie at Geilenkirchen air base in response to alleged Russian/Russian-aligned actors’ planned sabotage efforts, almost certainly to demonstrate resolve to counter and deter hostile actions. The announcement of enhanced security arrangements at the Geilenkirchen air base almost certainly represents a deterrent against possible acts of sabotage against NATO bases. Temporarily increased security arrangements will likely deter sabotage efforts in the short term as the incident demonstrates NATO’s capacity to rapidly react and increase security arrangements. In the long term, the decision will very unlikely prevent planning new sabotage and infiltration operations against the Geilenkirchen air base.
This incident very likely highlights the need for ongoing vigilance and adaptation to evolving threats at NATO facilities. NATO’s response very likely underscores the seriousness of the threat, as this level of alert very likely signifies an incident or intelligence pointing to an imminent attack. The precautionary measures, including sending non-essential staff home and conducting a security sweep, underline the alliance's preparedness to react to hostile actions in the short term. This response very likely signals NATO's ability to rapidly escalate security to protect strategic assets like the AWACS surveillance planes housed at the base.
Date: August 25, 2024
Location: Lubero Territory, North Kivu Province, Democratic Republic of Congo
Parties involved: Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC); Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (FARDC); FARDC-allied Wazalendo militia groups; March 23 Movement (M23); Congolese civilians in North Kivu; Rwanda; Angola; UN Security Council (UNSC); UN forces
The event: Conflict between FARDC and M23 renewed in the eastern North Kivu province with clashes allegedly taking place near Kirumba - the economic hub of North Kivu Province’s Lubero Territory.[5] Fighting between FARDC and M23 reportedly ceased, but local civil societies declare that the situation remains unpredictable. FARDC and M23 have reinforced positions around Kikuvho village, around 12 km from Kirumba.[6]
Analysis & Implications:
The rise of violent conflict between FARDC and M23 rebels in densely populated areas will very likely draw international attention to the conflict. The escalation of conflict in these areas will likely exacerbate the existing humanitarian crisis in the DRC, which will likely lead the UNSC to increase the power of the UN forces within the region under humanitarian mandates. The increased threat to the civilian population will likely encourage international powers, such as the UN, to pressure conflicting parties and their international backers including Rwanda and the US to reinforce ceasefire agreements to facilitate the delivery of aid to populated areas impacted by the conflict.
Because the August 4 Angola-negotiated ceasefire between the DRC and Rwanda excluded M23, the alleged Rwandan proxy likely did not consider the agreement binding and sought to communicate their independence from Rwanda. In the absence of an international organization with the capacity to enforce any ceasefire agreement, such as the August 4 one, armed engagements between FARDC and M23 are likely over the next few weeks. FARDC and allied Wazalendo militia groups will very likely aim to recapture the important economic hub of Kirumba from M23 in future engagements.
[1] NATO Defense Ministers Meet at NATO Headquarters, by Lisa Ferdinando, licensed under Public Domain (The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement)
[2] @NATOAWACS, X, August 22, 2024, https://x.com/natoawacs/status/1826720425470054846?s=46&t=XPRXNbv3ke9ld9LxM3Oadw
[3] NATO air base in Germany raises security level due to 'potential threat', Reuters, August 2024, https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/nato-air-base-germany-raises-security-level-due-potential-threat-2024-08-22/
[4] Germany: NATO airbase raises security over potential threat, DW, August 2024, https://www.dw.com/en/germany-nato-airbase-raises-security-over-potential-threat/a-70023547
[5] DR Congo army and M23 rebels clash near densely populated eastern towns, Reuters, August 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/dr-congo-army-m23-rebels-clash-near-densely-populated-eastern-towns-2024-08-25/
[6] North Kivu: Precarious calm in Lubero after clashes between the FARDC and the M23, Radio Okapi, August 2024, https://www.radiookapi.net/2024/08/26/actualite/securite/nord-kivu-calme-precaire-lubero-apres-des-affrontements-entre-les (Translated by Google)