February 13-19, 2025 | Issue 5 - NORTHCOM and SOUTHCOM
John Impallomeni, William Adams, Lydia Baccino, Noah Kuttymartin, Jacob Robison
James Raggio,Clémence Van Damme, Editors; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor
Penitentiary’s External Perimeter[1]
Date: February 14, 2025
Location: Guayaquil, Guayas Province, Ecuador
Parties involved: Ecuador; Guayaquil inhabitants; the government of Ecuador; Lieutenant Colonel Porfirio Cedeño; the Armed Forces of Ecuador; high-ranking Ecuadorian officials; special operations group; Ecuador prison system; law enforcement; Mexican drug cartels; Albanian Mafia; organized criminal groups; local gangs; local communities
The event: Hitmen assassinated Cedeño in an armed attack against the Special Operations Group near the Litoral penitentiary.[2]
Analysis & Implications:
The attack on a military official is very likely linked to Ecuador’s prison violence, as the prison economy is almost certainly a key resource of revenue and power for gangs challenging the government’s authority. The government will very likely intensify efforts to regain control of this sector by mobilizing the military to restore order in prison, likely leading criminal groups to target high-ranking officials to retaliate and assert their power. Criminal groups’ growing control in prison will very likely extend their influence to the streets, where they can increase drug trafficking and recruitment, likely leading to a rise in violence and instability in local communities. Should the government fail to establish control within the penal system, this trend will likely continue, likely eroding law enforcement’s power and destabilizing local communities.
The strategic location of Guayaquil almost certainly puts a target on any military personnel or government officials challenging gangs’ authority and disrupting their supply routes. International criminal organizations very likely incentivize local gangs to target anyone trying to stop trafficking operations, very likely emboldening gangs to attack critical infrastructure and prompt authorities to redirect resources away from counterterrorism efforts. International criminal organizations, such as Mexican drug cartels and the Albanian Mafia, will very likely rely on local gangs to protect their assets in Guayaquil, such as locations used to store drugs and defend them against rival gangs and military forces. As government operations against gangs increase and more clashes occur, there is a roughly even chance that international criminal organizations will increase their support to the gangs, likely allowing them to overpower military forces and control Guayaquil.
Date: February 16, 2025
Location: Acapulco, Guerrero State, Mexico
Parties involved: Mexico; Mexican police; Mexican cartels, Los Rusos; armed community police force, Union of Peoples and Organizations of the State of Guerrero (UPOEG); rival groups; contested Mexican communities; Mexican civilians; ambulance workers; Mexican medical staff and emergency responders; public service workers; unknown victims; hitmen; witnesses
The event: A group of hitmen, in a car and on multiple motorcycles, intercepted an ambulance, executing four wounded men, and injuring another while en route to the hospital.[3]
Analysis & Implications:
The hitmen very likely coordinated the attack before execution, to avoid confrontations and spare multiple witnesses. The attackers likely used the car to obstruct the ambulance's path while relying on the motorcycles for more agile maneuvers, such as pursuit and escape. Attacking the ambulance in the early morning hours likely reduced the risk of police or civilian intervention, as civilians are unlikely to be outside and police units are likely less active at this time. Leaving survivors, despite an almost certain firepower advantage, very likely indicates that the hitmen were strictly focused on their four targets, likely deliberately disregarding the emergency staff.
The attack on the ambulance likely signals cartels’ increasing willingness to assert dominance over rival gangs and increase territorial control by executing their targets, regardless of their circumstances. Rather than a direct assault on emergency services, this incident very likely reflects a broader effort to control the survival of wounded rivals, ensuring that adversaries do not escape cartel-enforced retribution. As cartels continue to exert their power using hitmen, violence between rival groups, such as Los Rusos and UPOEG, will very likely increase, likely harming civilians and public service workers.
The attack on the ambulance will very likely heighten fear among emergency responders, likely discouraging them from operating in high-risk areas and reducing healthcare access for civilians caught in cartel violence. Paramedics will likely increasingly request precise information or delay responding to calls in conflict zones, likely leading to higher mortality rates for victims of violence. This trend will very likely strain Mexico’s fragile emergency response system, reducing the state's capacity to manage cartel-related violence.
[1] Park across from prison, generated by a third party database
[2] Air force colonel shot dead by hitmen while driving to military ceremony in Ecuador, CBS News, February 2025,
[3] Sicarios interceptan una ambulancia y rematan a cuatro hombres en Acapulco, Guerrero, Infobae, February 2025, https://www.infobae.com/mexico/2025/02/16/sicarios-interceptan-una-ambulancia-y-rematan-a-cuatro-heridos-en-acapulco-guerrero/ (Translated by Google)