January 23-29, 2025 | Issue 2 - NORTHCOM, SOUTHCOM, and EXTREMISM
William Adams, Daniela De Luca, Jacob Robison, John Impallomeni, Hae Lim Park
Samantha Mikulskis, Editor; Finley Thomas, Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor
El Plateado, Cauca Department, Colombia[1]
Date: January 23, 2025
Location: El Plateado, Cauca Department, Colombia
Parties involved: Colombian government; Colombian military; Colombian state and local institutions; Colombian soldiers in El Plateado; Colombian Marxist-Leninist guerrilla group Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissident faction, Central General Staff (EMC); ex-FARC commander and EMC leader, Néstor Gregorio Vera Fernández, alias Iván Mordisco; Colombian insurgents; El Plateado residents; communities in rural areas
The event: Mordisco EMC faction attacked Colombian military forces in El Plateado and destroyed a key bridge connecting rural communities.[2]
Analysis & Implications:
The bridge’s destruction will likely create economic instability for El Plateado residents, likely allowing EMC to gain control of the area and exploit the population. EMC will likely seize the local economy by setting up checkpoints and blocking access to key trade routes for the agriculture sector. This economic constraint will likely increase poverty levels, likely forcing residents to rely on EMC for supplies or employment. This economic dependence will likely compel residents to interact and cooperate with EMC, very likely allowing EMC to establish operations there and increasing illicit trade, such as drug trafficking and illegal mining.
The infrastructure disruption likely aims to exploit and deepen Colombian military resource constraints in the region, likely by hindering troop movements and supply lines essential for sustained operations. This damage likely forces the military to divert resources towards technical repairs and temporarily adapt its regional strategy, likely weakening its ability to maintain a consistent presence in rural areas. By targeting such critical infrastructure, EMC likely seeks to amplify the operational challenges faced by the Colombian state, likely undermining its capacity to conduct effective counter-insurgency efforts. The attack will likely worsen the military’s logistical challenges, with strained resources and on-site support likely increasing the risk of clashes with EMC.
The disruption of direct communication networks among local communities will likely create an informational vacuum for the spread of disinformation and the creation of malinformation, likely allowing dissident groups like EMC to leverage local isolation. Isolated communities lacking access to verified information will likely become fertile ground for distortion, with dissidents likely casting doubt on the legitimacy of state-led peace efforts and humanitarian aid. This disinformation will likely mix facts and propaganda, likely eroding trust in state and local institutions and pushing the population toward accepting insurgents and perceiving them as the legitimate authority. By influencing local beliefs on security and governance, dissidents' narratives will likely threaten public safety and expose life-saving information to manipulation, including alerts, such as security warnings and safe route indications.
Date: January 26, 2025
Location: El Salvador
Parties involved: El Salvador; El Salvador government; US President Donald Trump; USA; Trump’s administration; border security agencies; asylum seekers; non-Salvadoran migrants; deportees; Honduran law enforcement personnel; Guatemalan law enforcement personnel; local authorities; transnational organized crime (TOCs) groups, Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) and 18th Street Gang known as Barrio 18; South American countries
The event: Reports suggest Trump’s administration is negotiating a “Safe Third Country” agreement with El Salvador to deport non-Salvadoran migrants there, preventing them from seeking asylum in the US and requiring them to apply in El Salvador instead.[3]
Analysis & Implications:
The agreement will very likely challenge the deportees’ safety, social integration, and employment opportunities in El Salvador. Deportees will very likely face personal security and economic risks, given the threat of gang violence, oversaturation in the job market, and insufficient government support for deported individuals. Economic instability and limited job opportunities will likely make it difficult for these individuals to integrate effectively into society, likely resulting in long-term social and financial challenges. Social integration challenges, such as the loss of established support networks, will likely undermine the relocated individuals’ ability to rebuild their lives and meaningfully contribute to society.
This agreement will likely reduce formal asylum claims, but it will very likely push migrants into more dangerous and irregular migration paths, such as perilous routes in South and Central America, smuggling, and underground tunnels, likely worsening risks for migrants and law enforcement personnel. Migrants who are unwilling or unable to apply for asylum in El Salvador will likely turn to irregular migration routes to nearby countries such as Honduras and Guatemala, likely increasing irregular migrant flows there. These new irregular migration routes will very likely overburden South American countries, likely challenging border security agencies to confront rising unauthorized crossings with limited resources and untrained agents. This strain on local authorities will likely exacerbate borders’ vulnerabilities and create opportunities for TOCs groups, such as MS-13 and Barrio 18, to exploit such gaps in enforcement to expand violence, corruption, and trafficking.
[1] El Plateado, Cauca Department, Colombia by Google Maps
[2] Terror en el Cauca: disidencias activaron moto bomba en Argelia; hay varios heridos, Semana, January 2025, https://www.semana.com/nacion/articulo/terror-en-el-cauca-disidencias-activaron-moto-bomba-en-argelia-hay-varios-heridos/202525/ (Translated by Google)
[3] Trump eyes asylum agreement with El Salvador to deport migrants there, CBS News, January 2025