Oliver Waters, Jigyasa Maloo
Finley Thomas, Naureen Salim, Editor; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor
November 2, 2024
Soldiers on Patrol[1]
Event: On November 1, 2024, Washington State Governor Jay Inslee authorized the Washington National Guard (WANG) to respond to “potential additional civil unrest” leading up to the election on November 5.[2] WANG units will be on standby from November 4 expiring at 0001 on November 8, 2024, with the potential to adjust personnel numbers as deemed necessary, to protect election infrastructure and ensure public safety.[3]
Significance: Far-right extremist actors will very likely exploit this decision by spreading disinformation on X and Facebook to justify violence against voters and state authorities leading up to the election. QAnon conspiracy theorists will very likely claim that Q[4] and pro-Trump forces have authorized the decision as part of a nationwide crackdown on the radical left Antifa actors, likely harassing their political opposition at protests and marches. Other pro-Trump conspiracy groups will likely allege that WANG soldiers are protecting electronic voting machines they see as responsible for Trump's 2020 defeat, likely attempting to destroy these systems and harassing election staff and WANG members working at polling stations. Anti-government militia movements will likely argue that the Democratic Governor is infringing on civil liberties by deploying WANG to prevent Trump supporters from voting. They will likely use intimidation tactics against enforcement agents and the WANG, likely carrying weapons on streets close to polling stations on election day.
The authorization of WANG almost certainly reflects heightened concern over potential surges in election-related violence in the state. The recent targeted ballot box incident will very likely heighten the security threat of similar isolated or connected attacks on election infrastructure, such as ballot boxes, electronic voting machines, and polling stations. Concerns about electoral integrity will almost certainly extend beyond election day to post-election instability, with delays in vote counting or disputed results likely providing further opportunities for extremist actors to target election officials. Far-right extremist actors will very likely attempt to instill fear and anxiety among specific voter groups such as racial and ethnic minorities and political opponents for their safety through online intimidation and harassment campaigns, likely discouraging them from voting. Far-right extremists will likely aim to discredit the effectiveness of WANG and law enforcement, likely portraying them as incapable of maintaining order, and protecting voters and election officials.
Recommendations
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends WANG coordinate with election officials, and volunteers to protect election sites and infrastructure from potential attacks. Election officials should reassure voters that the election process is safe and secure through these measures taken by the state. WANG should avoid overt measures where possible, to balance security needs with public trust among voters.
WANG and state authorities should publish press releases on state government websites and local media, establishing clear legal parameters for WANG operations. Authorities should publish material on social media platforms including X, and Facebook, addressing conspiracy theories as they emerge. State officials should exercise caution in word choice surrounding election threats, refraining from strong rhetoric leading to polarization that extremists could use to increase disinformation narratives.
WANG should maintain a direct line of communication with law enforcement agencies in Washington state such as the Police and County Sheriff’s Departments and first responders to detect, deter and conduct swift responses to potential incidents of ballot box burning, arson, and attack on election officials.
State authorities should utilize the Washington Emergency Management System ahead of the election, to establish a clear chain of command between state-level agencies with pre-established channels of communication.
Social media companies in collaboration with federal agencies such as the National Security Agency (NSA), Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), and Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), should monitor and increase surveillance of domestic extremist accounts on social media platforms to manage disinformation and conspiracy theories related to the authorization of WANG. Social media companies should take steps to remove posts sharing election conspiracy theories that may impact the safety of election officials and law enforcement.
If there is any additional and or critical information please contact us at The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) by Telephone 202-643-2848 or email info@counterterrorismgroup.com
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[1] Soldiers on Patrol, generated by a third party database (Created by AI)
[2] Inslee activates some Washington National Guard members to support public safety activities related to the 2024 elections, Washington Governor Jay Inslee, November 2024, https://governor.wa.gov/news/2024/inslee-activates-some-washington-national-guard-members-support-public-safety-activities-related
[3] Ibid
[4] Q is a pseudonym of a person claiming to be a high ranking government official with clearance to classified information, it first apperad as an anonymous user on 4chan in 2017. What Is QAnon, the Viral Pro-Trump Conspiracy Theory? New York Times, September 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/article/what-is-qanon.html