July 9, 2023
Benedetta Bisaccia, Kyle Dillon, Ludovica Leccese, Utsav Yadav CENTCOM/AFRICOM Team
Cameron Munoz, Senior Editor
Map of Sudan[1]
Event: On July 8, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) targeted the city of Omdurman in an airstrike, killing at least 22 people and injuring numerous others.[2] This attack comes after 12 weeks of fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The international community swiftly responded to the incident, with the United Nations (UN) condemning the violence and expressing deep concerns over the potential for a full-scale civil war in Sudan. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed his disapproval of the airstrike and called for an immediate cessation of hostilities to protect civilians trapped amid the conflict. Secretary- General Guterres also expressed deep dismay over reports of extensive violence and casualties in Sudan's Darfur region, according to a statement by his deputy spokesperson, Farhan Haq. The UN and African countries also expressed concern about there being an ethnic piece to this conflict. The Secretary-General's concern extended to reports of renewed fighting in North Kordofan, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile States, indicating a worrisome disregard for humanitarian and human rights principles. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) members of Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and South Sudan are expected to meet on Monday to deliberate on the best way to handle this situation moving forward.[3]
Significance: The SAF will likely continue using aerial attacks to assert dominance over the RSF and gain the upper hand in the conflict. These disproportionate aerial attacks will likely intensify the conflict and lead to greater hostility, increasing the unlikelihood of reaching a negotiated settlement. The concern of fighting increasing across Sudanese territory also very likely makes the conflict challenging to settle. The UN will almost certainly continue monitoring the conflict to observe human rights violations and the expansion of violence to select the most effective response. The UN and other international agencies will likely continue prioritizing diplomatic initiatives and mediation to bring conflicting parties to the negotiating table. If future ceasefires are implemented, there will almost certainly be a need for one or several outside powers to monitor this approach to prevent it from being ignored or violated by combatants. Regional rivalries, proxy support, and transnational links of armed groups will likely undermine efforts to establish a lasting ceasefire. The UN's concerns about regional destabilization will likely prompt regional actors and neighboring countries to play a more active role in seeking a resolution. The mass migration of refugees is likely encouraging regional powers to act accordingly to prevent spillover effects and population pressures. There is a roughly even chance that when this conflict ends, smaller ethnic rivalries will still exist, making national reconciliation difficult. Humanitarian organizations will almost certainly continue monitoring the conflict to best plan a response and assist non-combatants. Given their proximity to Sudan, and their vested interest in regional stability, IGAD members will almost certainly prioritize mitigating the conflict's spillover effects and the prevention of further destabilization. They will likely intensify their efforts to support peace talks, facilitate negotiations, and promote sustainable peacebuilding initiatives.
Recommendations
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends that the international community and humanitarian organizations continue to monitor this dispute and evaluate the most effective measures for conflict mitigation.
CTG recommends that African countries work with the broader UN, to maximize the resources for conflict resolution and make way for peacebuilding.
CTG recommends that the Sudanese government, and other combatants, if necessary, announce their decision to use airpower to allow civilians to escape to safer zones and limit casualties.
CTG recommends that the international community works as an individual unit in resolving this conflict to prevent the strengthening of proxy conflicts in Sudan and prolong the conflict.
CTG recommends the advocation for inclusive political processes ensuring the meaningful participation of the entire Sudanese population by engaging in constructive dialogue. CTG also encourages the Sudanese population to resolve their disputes peacefully , and discourages acts of violence and retaliation which can exacerbate the ongoing conflict.
CTG recommends NGOs raise awareness about the current conflict in Sudan and its impact on civilians. CTG also recommends the protection of human rights and the rule of law.
CTG recommends neighboring countries set up emergency refugee camps with basic necessities, including food, water, and tents to accommodate potentially a growing number of refugees in case a civil war breaks out. International donors and humanitarian organizations should allocate resources to address the urgent needs of displaced populations, provide access to essential services such as healthcare and education, and support sustainable development initiatives.
CTG recommends a third-party nation like Saudi Arabia or the UAE, because of their regional influence, setting up a mediated conference where all of Sudan’s parties and factions can meet together and agree on a power-sharing deal.
CTG recommends that the United Nations, in collaboration with relevant regional organizations and stakeholders, take the lead in establishing robust monitoring and verification mechanisms to ensure compliance with any ceasefire agreements or peace accords. These mechanisms should be able to effectively monitor the implementation of agreed-upon measures and hold all parties accountable for their commitments.
If there is any additional and or critical information, please contact us at The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) by Telephone at 202-643-2848 or email at info@counterterrorismgroup.com.
[1] “Map of Sudan” by Utsav Yadav via Google Maps
[2] UN secretary-general condemns air strike that killed at least 22 people in Sudan, Reuters, July 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/un-sec-gen-condemns-air-strike-that-killed-least-22-people-sudan-2023-07-09/#:~:text=At%20least%2022%20people%20were,factions%20entered%20its%2012th%20week.
[3] UN Warns Sudan Faces 'Full-scale Civil War' As Air Raid Kills 22, Barron’s, July 2023, https://www.barrons.com/news/un-warns-sudan-faces-full-scale-civil-war-as-air-raid-kills-22-3c4ac6d4?refsec=topics_afp-news
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