Oliver Waters, Samuel Pearson
Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor
October 30, 2024
Voter Registration Fraud and Misinformation[1]
Event: York and Lancaster counties, Pennsylvania are investigating voter registration fraud. As of October 30, 2024 no arrests have been made in either county, and authorities do not believe the perpetrators cast any fraudulent ballots.[2] On October 29, 2024 Trump claimed on X that “THOUSANDS” of “FRAUDULENT” votes were cast in York County, and a further 2600 illegal ballots were cast in Lancaster County.[3]
Significance: Allegations of successful voting fraud in a swing state will very likely aggravate grievances among conspiracy theorists, given pre-existing social media narratives of mail ballot fraud during the 2020 Presidential election. Anti-government militia groups, including Oathkeepers, will likely increase activity in York and Lancaster counties, likely harassing those perceived as responsible for supposed election rigging. QAnon believers and other affiliated conspiracy theorists, will likely perceive alleged voter fraud as part of a plot by the ‘Deep State’ to undermine Trump’s electoral campaign and harm American democracy, likely threatening violence against election officials perceived as responsible for enabling illegal activity.
Opportunist threat actors, including accelerationists and other political extremists, will likely exploit public controversy over fraud investigations. These actors will likely attempt copycat fraud campaigns to create a broader perception of threats to the election, very likely attempting to undermine public confidence in government institutions. Further incidents will likely lead to backlash against federal, state and local government in the form of protests, and likely violence. Violent backlash will likely threaten Democratic party public officials, who many extremists very likely believe benefit from voter fraud.
Trump’s rhetoric will very likely undermine trust in the Federal Election Commission (FEC) and state level election monitoring organizations’ investigation through unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud. Both left and right-wing extremists groups in Pennsylvania will likely exploit this undermined trust to legitimize their activity in the lead up to the election. These groups will likely seek to denigrate the integrity of ongoing law enforcement and FEC investigations, thereby furthering their anti-statist objectives.
Recommendations
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends that York and Lancaster county officials provide regular updates on election fraud investigations through social media, government websites, and traditional media. Election officials and law enforcement should monitor the activity and rhetoric of known extremist groups on X and Facebook, producing press statements countering disinformation narratives that gain traction online.
Law enforcement should ensure officers are detailed to protect FEC and state level election workers in York and Lancaster County whilst election fraud investigations are ongoing. Police should ensure that Ballots and other evidence required during the investigation is transported securely, preventing investigations from being disrupted by vigilante-style attacks from anti-government militia groups.
Political Candidates at both the local and national level, should review material surrounding the election fraud claim, ensuring factuality before it is posted online. Political Staffers should reach out to investigating bodies, including the FEC, Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and local police departments to ensure that their rhetoric does not contradict evidence in the investigation.
If there is any additional and or critical information please contact us at The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) by Telephone 202-643-2848 or email info@counterterrorismgroup.com
[1]Misinformation, generated by a third party database
[2] Donald Trump calls out Lancaster, York counties over alleged voter registration fraud, WGAL, October 2024,
[3]@realDonaldTrump, X, https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1851309196827828616