August 25, 2023
Christine Saddy, Benedetta Bisaccia, Agathe Labadi, Utsav Yadav CENTCOM/AFRICOM Team
Cameron Munoz, Senior Editor
Niger Flag[1]
Event: On August 25, Niger's junta issued a 48-hour ultimatum for the French ambassador to leave the country after the envoy declined an invitation to meet Niger's foreign minister. This decision intensifies the deteriorating bilateral relations between both nations. The coup in July, which ousted President Mohammed Bazoum, was met with international opposition, with France insisting on Bazoum's return to power. This conflict has spurred anti-France demonstrations and statements. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the West African regional bloc, threatened military intervention if negotiations fail, despite Gen Abdourahamane Tchiani's promise to reinstate civilian rule in three years. These events complicate Niger's stability and the broader Sahel region, where various influences, including Russia through its Wagner mercenary group, are gaining traction.[2]
Significance: Tensions between France and Niger will very likely escalate. The French ambassador leaving will likely be perceived as a direct affront to France's position and a validation of the junta's authority in the eyes of its supporters. This will likely embolden the junta to take further assertive actions, likely leading to a breakdown in diplomatic ties between the two nations. Niger will very likely encounter significant security challenges similar to those experienced by neighboring countries Mali and Burkina Faso after the expulsion of France from the nation. Terrorist groups operating in neighboring countries will almost certainly leverage the security instability to establish a foothold within the country. The Wagner Group has likely fueled anti-French sentiments to capitalize on the power vacuum and establish a presence in Niger. French security forces and allies operating in the Sahel, including peacekeeping missions and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) troops, will likely lose territorial control and regional support, reducing international influence and geopolitical interests. Individuals opposed to the French presence will likely initiate actions against French migrants and businesses, potentially discouraging these enterprises from continuing their operations. This scenario will likely contribute to the deterioration of the already fragile economic situation. It will very likely affect trade agreements between France and Niger and impact trade routes in the Sahel region.
Recommendations
CTG recommends that Western governments engage in diplomatic discussions with the junta to effectively manage the current situation peacefully.
CTG recommends all French citizens, organizations, and businesses operating in Niger to contact the French embassy to plan a safe exit.
CTG recommends that the US embassy in Niger remain vigilant over potential spillover of anti-American attacks on diplomats and their families.
CTG recommends that the State Department prepare a contingent plan to evacuate all Americans from Niger, including diplomats, businessmen, and tourists.
CTG recommends that ECOWAS play a proactive role in diplomatic efforts and peace-building in Niger, leveraging its resources to facilitate a peaceful resolution.
CTG recommends international organizations and governments prepare to provide humanitarian aid and support to vulnerable populations in Niger, particularly those at risk of displacement or exposure to security threats, given the deteriorating situation.
CTG recommends intelligence agencies should increase online monitoring of African Islamic terrorist groups, which would exploit the current situation in the region and share intelligence with stakeholders.
If there is any additional and or critical information, please contact us at The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) by telephone at 202-643-2848 or email at info@counterterrorismgroup.com.
[1] Niger Flag licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 Internationa
[2] Niger junta gives French envoy 48 hours to leave, BBC, August 2023,
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66623469
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