July 7, 2023
Benedetta Bisaccia, Kyle Dillon, Utsav Yadav, Ludovica Leccese, Johnathan Koch, CENTCOM/AFRICOM Team
Cameron Munoz, Senior Editor
Map of Myanmar[1]
Event: On July 5, 2023, several handmade mortars were used in the village of Ngwe Twin in central Myanmar, leaving 15 civilians dead, and seven wounded, including three monks. Ngwe Twin is where the government has had support as inhabitants have assisted in counterinsurgency operations. The military junta accused pro-democracy forces (PDF) of carrying out the attack, a charge that various PDF outfits have denied. According to a state-run newspaper, reports suggest that the attack occurred at 0400. This latest attack has fueled conflict between PDF groups and the military-controlled government. Since the military overthrew a democratically elected government in 2021, local PDF groups have launched an armed rebellion against the military regime. These groups have aligned themselves with several armed ethnic minority groups fighting for more autonomy. The military has responded by cracking down on the insurgents.[2]
Significance: The government's repression of the population and continued human rights abuses will likely contribute to Myanmar's isolation from the international community. Myanmar is almost certainly in the midst of a civil war, very likely resulting in the deaths of civilians and the migration of refugees to neighboring countries, including India, Bangladesh, and Thailand. The conflict will very likely deepen existing ethnic and religious divisions in the country, likely resulting in further polarization and potential outbreaks of intercommunal violence. The international community will likely increase pressure on the military junta to address the ongoing violence and human rights abuses, calling for greater accountability and diplomacy. Government forces will likely intensify crackdowns on dissent and resistance movements, likely leading to more arrests, increased surveillance, and stricter control over the civilian population. The military junta is most likely using state-sponsored propaganda to turn public opinion against the PDF forces. This attack will unlikely encourage talks between the diplomatic forces and military government. The targeting of civilians and Monks will likely lead to an upsurge in protests, likely limiting the operations of humanitarian aid organizations within the country due to growing concerns for the safety of their employees.
Recommendations
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends that Myanmar civilians remain aware of their surroundings and informed of these events to escape to safer areas to avoid potential risks and dangerous situations.
CTG recommends that the government take proactive measures to de-escalate violence, including initiating a ceasefire.
CTG recommends that the international community, including governments, regional organizations, and human rights bodies, continue to exert diplomatic pressure on the military junta in Myanmar. This includes imposing targeted sanctions, restricting arms sales, and pursuing legal avenues to hold those responsible for human rights abuses accountable.
CTG recommends the international community increase humanitarian aid and support to the affected population in Myanmar.
CTG recommends the international community foster inclusive dialogue and national reconciliation involving all relevant stakeholders. CTG also recommends including ethnic minority groups and the pro-democracy movements to find a sustainable and inclusive political solution.
CTG recommends all parties involved in the conflict prioritize the protection of civilians by adhering to humanitarian law and international human rights. CTG also recommends preventing arbitrary arrests, extrajudicial killings, and other human rights abuses.
If there is any additional and or critical information, please contact us at The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) by Telephone at 202-643-2848 or email at info@counterterrorismgroup.com
[2] 15 killed in attack on Myanmar village; military says pro-democracy fighters hit civilians, AP, July 2023, https://apnews.com/article/myanmar-civilians-killed-d18cca65e95e500d0595938f0ee051f0
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