August 13, 2024
Samuel Pearson, Madeline Thompson
Elena Alice Rossetti, Editor; Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor
US Carrier Operations in the Arabian Gulf[1]
Event: The Iranian government rejected the British, French, and German governments' request to avoid striking Israel in retaliation for the latter killing Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in July.[2] Iran and Hezbollah previously swore revenge for Israel’s assassination of Haniyeh and the killing of senior Hezbollah commander Fouad Shukr. US and Israeli officials anonymously briefing US news media indicated their intelligence communities (ICs) believe Iran will launch an attack against Israel within the next 48-96 hours.[3]
Significance: An Iranian strike against Israel will very likely include large numbers of loitering munitions, cruise and ballistic missiles. Iran will likely target Israeli military installations to limit escalation, but some missiles will very likely miss their targets or crash after interception by Israeli air-defense, likely threatening civilian residents in Israel. The chance of Iranian strikes targeting highly symbolic structures or buildings in urban areas, very likely increasing the threat against Israeli civilians, is roughly even. Iran will almost certainly withhold most of its munitions, but will likely employ more than 300 individual systems in its strike.[4] This attack will likely break through Israel’s missile defenses in a few locations, given that reduced regional cooperation and the likely increased scale of Iranian operations will likely undercut the effectiveness of these defenses. This attack will very likely threaten both Israeli military personnel and civilians, but they will very likely have early warning from Israeli radar and public alert systems, likely allowing them to seek shelter.
Hezbollah will likely seek to re-establish credibility and retain Iranian support by increasing its attacks on Israeli military positions in Northern Israel. Ongoing exchanges of fire across the Lebanese-Israeli border will likely increase, with a roughly even chance that Hezbollah expands its use of missiles and rockets when striking targets in Israel. If Hezbollah begins using large numbers of rockets and missiles, while Iranian strikes are ongoing, they will likely overwhelm Israeli missile and air-defense systems, likely causing severe damage to Israeli military and civilian targets. Hezbollah will likely avoid combining a massed rocket attack alongside an Iranian strike to manage escalation and limit direct US involvement on Israel’s side, given the US’ conventional military superiority.
Iranian and Hezbollah attacks will almost certainly increase the sense of threat felt by the Israeli public, who will very likely support assertive military responses. Iranian action will unlikely deter future Israeli operations in Iran, and will likely lead to Israeli reprisal strikes against strategic locations in Iran. These will likely balance Israel’s perceived need for reprisal with controlling escalation, but will still likely express continued threat against the Iranian government. If Iranian and Hezbollah strikes on Israel inflict casualties, then Israel’s reprisal will very likely increase in severity, likely risking further escalation and harm to both Israelis, Iranians, and Lebanese citizens. If Iran inflicts Israeli civilian casualties, Israel will almost certainly increase the severity of its strikes.
Recommendations
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends members of the Israeli and Lebanese public remain vigilant and aware of their closest shelter at all times. Strikes may occur at any hour of the day, and Israelis should expect strikes to impact at night. Preparation for night-time attacks, including flashlights and spare batteries in case of power outages, is vital.
CTG recommends that Israel and Iran remain aware of the need to control escalation, and ensure they select targets to minimize risks to civilian populations.
Foreign nationals still in Lebanon should leave immediately if possible. Any individuals that cannot leave should register with their government’s embassy to receive updates, warnings, and other assistance if the regional crisis escalates.
CTG recommends that the US continue emphasizing the importance of restraint to both Iran, Israel and Hezbollah. US officials and military personnel should be prepared for conflict in the region, and review response plans, which must include plans to de-escalate and exit this conflict.
If there is any additional and or critical information please contact us at The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) by Telephone 202-643-2848 or email info@counterterrorismgroup.com
[1] “Deck Launch” by Petty Officer 3rd Class Ian Kinkead, licensed under Public Domain.
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
[2] Israel-Hamas war latest: Iran rejects European leaders’ call to refrain from any retaliatory attacks, AP, August 2024, https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-latest-13-august-2024-42bee1b1dab452cfc913239b2cf5a993
[3] US says it's preparing for 'significant' Iran attack on Israel as early as 'this week', ABC News, August 2024, https://abcnews.go.com/International/us-preparing-significant-iran-attack-israel-early-week/story?id=112780743
[4] In April the Iranian government launched over 300 missiles and loitering munitions at Israel https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/17/iran-israel-attack-drones-missiles/