July 6, 2023
Benedetta Bisaccia, Kyle Dillon, CENTCOM/AFRICOM Team
Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor
Israeli-Lebanese border[1]
Event: On July 6, tensions increased along the Israeli-Lebanese-Syrian border[2] after an anti-tank missile was fired into Israel from Lebanon and the Israelis returned fire with more than 15 shells, striking near the villages of Kfar Shouba and Halta. No organization, including Hezbollah, has claimed responsibility for the initial anti-tank missile attack which prompted the Israeli retaliatory measures. Pieces of the anti-tank missile fell near Ghajar, an area that Israel and Lebanon are supposed to have divided control over from a 2006 UN Security Council resolution, but Israel has not withdrawn from the Lebanese side. The United Nations peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon (UNIFIL) urged all parties to refrain from taking actions that could further escalate the situation. This event comes in light of Israel conducting a major operation in the West Bank Jenin refugee camp.[3]
Significance: The more than 15 shells that Israel fired as a retaliatory measure are likely a show of strength to deter future cross-border attacks against their territory. The 15 shells as a response to one anti-tank missile will likely be viewed by Israel’s rivals as a disproportionate response and will likely increase regional tensions. This tension will likely be coupled with the presence of disputed territories, such as Ghajar Village, which will likely remain a source of hostility between Lebanon and Israel. There is a roughly even chance regional actors will intervene, especially if this situation between Lebanon and Israel escalates, but they will almost certainly be more cognizant of Israeli capabilities. The Arab-Israeli tensions in the vicinity of the Syria and Lebanon border, intersecting both countries, likely pose a serious threat due to the potential for cross-border conflicts. Regional countries, especially those that remain in conflict like Syria, will almost certainly remain aware of the external situation on their borders and its potential for destabilization. No organization taking responsibility for this attack will likely make the objective of increasing security more difficult. Blame will likely circulate if no organization or lone-wolf actor admits responsibility for this attack, which will likely worsen the situation by potentially angering certain actors. There is a likely chance that the presence of UNIFIL, and other externally supported measures, will be necessary to keep the peace in the border region. The failure to fully implement UN resolutions and withdraw Israeli forces from these occupied territories will very likely fuel further confrontations. Hezbollah, with its military capabilities and alignment with Iran and other regional actors, will likely contribute to a broader regional alliance against Israel, likely further escalating tensions. The Lebanese government, already grappling with a financial crisis, will likely face challenges in balancing the need to protect national interests with structuring or having more control over the threat Hezbollah poses. Israel will likely allocate significant resources to maintain a robust military presence in the disputed territories.
Recommendations
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends that all civilians in the impacted region remain vigilant and take measures to protect themselves as tensions between Lebanon and Israel will likely increase.
CTG recommends that Lebanon and Israel deter any other regional country from worsening the situation by violently intervening on behalf of either side and conducting their own attacks.
CTG recommends that Lebanon and Israel negotiate to relieve tensions, despite no militant group or other organization taking credit for the initial missile launch. These two countries could cooperate to find a solution to handle the perpetrators when they are discovered.
CTG recommends that Lebanon and Israel work to settle the territorial dispute over Ghajar to limit the escalation of the current situation.
CTG recommends that the Lebanese government works to identify the militant group or organization and takes preventative measures to control the means of violence within their borders.
CTG recommends that Israel remain cautious in conducting future raids in case this missile was used as a response to their recent actions against Palestinians. CTG also recommends that Israel be cautious with using, what could be seen as, disproportionate retaliatory measures.
CTG recommends that Hezbollah's movements and actions in southern Lebanon are monitored in case they respond to the initial Israeli retaliation.
CTG recommends that regional countries stay on high alert and take preventative measures such as strengthening border security if necessary.
CTG recommends countries that typically serve as mediators in the Middle East to acknowledge the growing situation and consider actions that need to be taken.
CTG recommends Lebanon and Israel work closely and coordinate with UNIFIL to maintain stability in the border region.
If there is any additional and or critical information please contact us at The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) by Telephone 202-643-2848 or email info@counterterrorismgroup.com
[1] Israel-Lebanon border by Google Maps
[2] Israeli forces shell southern Lebanon border village after rocket lands near disputed territory, AP, July 2023, https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-israel-hezbollah-1408d61685309df1a267976d6079ed66
[3] Israeli artillery strikes Lebanon after rocket launch, BBC News, July 2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-66121260
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