July 30, 2023
Lydia Baccino, Christine Saddy, Hae Lim Park, Sophia Ritscher
Cameron Munoz, Senior Editor
Northwestern Bajur District[1]
Event: On July 30, a bomb explosion occurred at a political rally organized by the supporters of the extreme cleric and political leader, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, in the Bajur district, northwest Pakistan. The blast killed approximately 44 individuals and wounded nearly 200, including children, in what is considered the worst attack in recent years. A senior police officer stated that the workers’ convention of Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s Jamiat Ulema Islam party (JUI) was happening when the explosion went off. Maulana Ziaullah, the local Chief of Rehman’s party, has been identified as among the dead, with other JUI leaders among the injured. Abdul Rasheed, the regional Chief, stated the attack aimed to erase JUI before the elections in November. Rehman is thought to be a pro-Taliban cleric whose political party is part of the coalition government in Islamabad. The Bajur district has been a haven for Islamic militants, housing the Pakistan Taliban, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), known to be a close ally of the Taliban government of Afghanistan. The bombing occurred hours before the arrival of Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Islamabad, where he was attending an event to commemorate a decade of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), where Beijing invested billions of dollars in Pakistan. The Associated Press stated that in recent months, several Chinese nationals have become targets of militants in northwestern Pakistan. TTP released a statement condemning the actions at the rally, claiming it is an attempt “at pitching Islamists against each other.” On the social media platform “X,” Zabiullah Mujahid, an Afghan Taliban spokesperson, condemned the explosion stating that “Such crimes cannot be justified in any way.”[2]
Significance: The explosion will almost certainly cause civil unrest and chaos throughout Pakistan. The JUI party will likely blame ISIS for the attack given ISIS's opposite view of the party, very likely leading to friction between the two sides. It is very likely that the attacks were a warning sent to the JUI party to withdraw its candidacy from the elections. Although no one has taken responsibility, the perpetrators will likely continue to target candidates and their rallies to discourage them from running in the November elections. Law enforcement presence will likely increase in large crowds, demonstrations, and political rallies, which will likely temporarily restrict any planned events. The high number of casualties will likely overcrowd hospitals and healthcare clinics, likely paralyzing roads and traffic for patient transportation. International organizations and the Pakistani government will very likely provide humanitarian organizations to emergency and medical personnel to better assist in the aftermath of the explosion. Protests and demonstrations by the wounded and victims' families will likely be held throughout Pakistan, likely turning violent if the government intervenes to stop them. Political polarization will likely worsen and divide the supporters of ruling and opposition parties following the attack. It is very likely that the Chinese government will reduce the number of its projects in Pakistan, as Chinese nationals continue to be targeted. Pakistan's economy will almost certainly take a hit if instability continues to plague the country, further deteriorating the situation.
Recommendations
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends humanitarian organizations immediately mobilize resources and personnel to provide essential aid, including food, water, shelter, and medical assistance, to affected individuals in the Bajur district.
CTG recommends that individuals stay vigilant of their surroundings and report suspicious behavior to the local authorities.
CTG recommends individuals avoid large crowds, demonstrations, and political rallies.
CTG recommends local security authorities remain on high alert for attacks and increase immediate security measures. CTG also recommends increasing security measures at future political rallies and other large-scale events or gatherings.
CTG recommends that security measures be added for visiting Chinese government officials. Security measures should include increased staffing in personnel and vehicles. Alternative routes for transport should also be considered in case of further attacks or assassination attempts.
CTG recommends civilians stay informed about the current situation, follow safety instructions from local authorities and humanitarian agencies, and take necessary precautions to protect themselves and their families.
If there is any additional and or critical information, please contact us at The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) by Telephone at 202-643-2848 or email at info@counterterrorismgroup.com.
[2] A bomb at a political rally in northwest Pakistan kills at least 40 people and wounds nearly 200, Associated Press, July 2023, https://apnews.com/article/pakistan-bomb-bajur-maulana-fazlur-rehman-b655861c854ff086f11