August 4, 2023
Sophia Ritscher, Kyle Dillon, Christine Saddy
Cameron Munoz, Senior Editor
Regional Map of Ethiopia[1]
Event: On Friday, August 4, 2023, Ethiopia’s federal government declared a six-month-long state of emergency in Amhara, the second largest region, after days of violent confrontations between the army and the local Fano militia. The Amhara government sought assistance from Ethiopia’s federal government to help re-impose order, allowing authorities to ban public gatherings, enforce curfews, and make arrests or searches without warrants.[2] The two-year civil war in Tigray that ended last November sparked tensions between regional and federal authorities and escalated when federal authorities moved to disarm regional security forces and dismantle the informal Amhara Fano militia. Shortly after these developments in April 2023, residents organized protests expressing their rejection of the government's decisions, saying that the matter would weaken Amhara, make it vulnerable to attacks, and not promote national unity, the desired outcome of these government measures. The clashes between the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) and the Fano militia reportedly began on Tuesday near the university in Gondar and quickly escalated into a crisis. Ethiopian Airlines suspended all flights to three of the four airports in Amhara, and mobile internet remains down.[3]
Significance: The worsening security situation in the Amhara region will almost certainly threaten the local population and spread to neighboring regions if uncontained. The newly imposed security measures, such as movement restrictions, are unlikely to solve the underlying security concerns of the local population, likely leading to increased civil unrest. There is a roughly even chance Al-Shabab will exploit this worsening security situation and advance its interests in the Amhara region, exacerbating the security situation. Suspension of flights and the internet almost certainly decreases the quality of life, angering the local population and possibly strengthening resentment toward the Ethiopian government. There is a roughly even chance the Ethiopian government and security forces will be cautious in using aggressive measures to combat the Fano militia to avoid a large-scale conflict. Local authorities will almost certainly attempt to control disputed areas within the region, likely increasing the presence of security personnel to counter paramilitary groups’ activities through the state of emergency. The Ethiopian government will likely continue pressing for national unity, which some regional paramilitary groups may view as government overreach. There is a roughly even chance the Ethiopian government will allow the Fano militia to maintain some autonomy or incorporate them into the government structure to avoid further conflict. The Fano militia will likely continue to recruit local citizens if the Ethiopian government cannot appease the militia. Regional organizations, like the African Union, will almost certainly monitor developments in Ethiopia to prevent regional destabilization and track refugee movements. Neighboring countries, like Sudan and Eritrea, will almost certainly monitor the Amhara region and strengthen their border security to prevent spillover effects. These countries will almost certainly attempt to separate cross-border issues from blending with their domestic problems. The violent clashes will almost certainly lead to increased internal displacement, resulting in higher risks of Cholera infections already prevalent in the region spreading further. International aid organizations such as USAID and the International Rescue Committee will almost certainly monitor developments and send assistance if necessary.
Recommendations
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends individuals avoid non-essential travel to Ethiopia and shelter in place if they are currently in the Amhara region.
CTG recommends a nonviolent approach to solving this conflict to prevent many casualties and injuries.
CTG recommends that the Ethiopian government works with the paramilitary organizations to prevent a large-scale destabilization of the Amhara region and possible spillover effects.
CTG recommends international organizations and NGOs monitor the situation and dispatch aid if necessary.
CTG recommends individuals in the region remain mindful of the ongoing Cholera outbreak and implement strict personal hygiene measures to decrease the risk of infection.
CTG recommends that individuals regain unrestricted access to the internet to guarantee information sharing with individuals in other locations.
If there is any additional and or critical information please contact us at The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) by Telephoneat 202-643-2848 or email at info@counterterrorismgroup.com
[1] “Map of the regions and zones of Ethiopia” by NordNordWest licensed under Creative Commons
[2] Ethiopia declares Amhara state of emergency following militia clashes, Reuters, August 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ethiopia-declares-state-emergency-following-militia-clashes-2023-08-04/
[3] Ethiopia’s declaring a state of emergency in its Amhara region as local fighters clash with military, AP News, August 2023,
https://apnews.com/article/ethiopia-amhara-military-violence-cd880a2e8c5256e1ef4af52598e9d44d