August 29 - September 4, 2024 | Issue 35 - CENTCOM
Kyle Dillon, Itamar Raizman, Cara Peddle
Jess Wilson, Editor; Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor
Oil Tanker in the Red Sea[1]
Date: August 29, 2024
Location: Red Sea
Parties involved: Yemen; Houthi rebels; China; European countries
The event: Footage released by Yemen’s Houthi rebels shows fighters boarding the Greek-flagged oil tanker MV Sounion in the Red Sea and detonating several bombs, threatening a major oil spill. The tanker, carrying about 1 million barrels of oil, was initially attacked with small arms, projectiles, and a drone boat a week prior to the event forcing the crew and security personnel to abandon the ship. While the Houthis suggested they may permit salvage efforts to avoid environmental damage, the group previously blocked such attempts and the situation could still be used for political leverage. Operation Aspides is preparing to coordinate with European authorities and neighboring countries to prevent an environmental crisis and maintain regional stability.[2]
Analysis & Implications:
The Houthi attack on the MV Sounion will likely lead to heightened perceptions of risk among traders and investors of oil shipments through the Red Sea. This shift in perception will very likely cause an increase in risk premiums for crude oil futures, likely resulting in an upward trend in oil prices that impacts global economies, very likely including major importers such as China and European countries. These countries will likely face escalating transportation costs as shipping companies increase the presence of security personnel on vessels to prevent future attacks or change routes entirely.
The Houthis will likely continue to leverage publicizing footage of their attacks for propaganda purposes. The documentation of their attacks will almost certainly be used to demonstrate the extent of their capabilities, likely intending to attract international awareness of their strength and cause. This strategic use of media will likely motivate new members to join the Houthis in response to their perceived success.
Date: September 1, 2024
Location: West Bank, Palestine
Parties involved: Israel; Palestinian Authority (PA); Hamas; Palestine Islamic Jihad (PIJ); Palestinian militant group Khalil al-Rahman Brigade
The event: The Khalil al-Rahman Brigade claims responsibility for killing three Israeli police officers in the southern West Bank after fighters opened fire on the officer's vehicle. The attack was a response to several large-scale raids carried out by Israeli forces in recent days, which typically focus on urban refugee camps in the north. Hamas commended the attack as a reaction to Israeli operations in Gaza, though they do not claim direct involvement.[3]
Analysis & Implications:
Israel will likely respond aggressively to this attack in the West Bank, which will likely involve dismantling civilian infrastructure and conducting raids that endanger civilian livelihoods. An aggressive response in the West Bank will almost certainly prompt retaliatory actions by Palestinian extremist groups against Israeli forces. Israeli aggression will very likely create domestic conditions that extremist groups such as Hamas and the PIJ will exploit to boost recruitment and expand assets in the West Bank to fuel the conflict.
The escalating violence in the West Bank will almost certainly weaken the PA’s ability to govern effectively. The growing dissatisfaction with the PA’s inability to respond to Israeli actions will almost certainly contribute to a more volatile environment, likely resulting in frequent clashes between Palestinian and Israeli forces. The PA’s inability to protect Palestinian communities from Israeli operations will very likely lead to a loss of legitimacy among the Palestinian population.
[1] Tanker, generated by a third party database.
[2] Houthi video shows the Yemeni rebels planted bombs on tanker now threatening Red Sea oil spill, AP, August 2024, https://apnews.com/article/red-sea-attack-sounion-yemen-houthi-rebels-israel-hamas-war-76c68f18a984d18905ce7c84e5cabe0c
[3] Palestinian militants kill 3 Israeli police in the West Bank, AP, August 2024,