(The Situation Update Report [SUR] is a near real-time brief of a possible threat or situation being monitored by The Counter Threat Center. The information is accurate at the time of reporting, but may be subject to change.)
Nicholas Novak, Gabriel Helupka
Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor
October 11, 2023
Hamas Al-Aqsa Flood Poster[1]
Current Situation: Hamas reportedly released a poster in English calling on “Palestinian people, Arab and Muslim nations, and free peoples of the world” to attend the Al-Aqsa Flood event on October 13. Protestors will allegedly march towards the Israeli/Gaza border in solidarity with Jerusalem and the Al-Aqsa Mosque.[2]
Day/Time of event: October 13, 2023
What is the current threat:
Hamas is very likely exploiting civilians sympathetic to Palestinian causes. They are likely attempting to divide Israel Defense Forces (IDF) resources and increase the risk of the IDF causing civilian casualties. Hamas will almost certainly put civilians in danger, likely forcing IDF forces to plan precise offensive operations and divert resources to monitor the event. Hamas will almost certainly use any alleged evidence of the IDF confronting civilians to generate support for their objectives, likely attempting to legitimize it.
Distributing the poster in English is very likely propaganda targeted at Western media, likely attempting to keep attention on the group’s activities among Western audiences.
Hamas’s call on citizens worldwide will very likely attract foreign fighters from terrorist groups globally, likely prolonging the war. Foreign fighters will likely use the Rafah Border Crossing to reinforce Hamas at the Al-Aqsa Flood event.
Who will it directly impact:
Palestinian civilians
Foreign citizens attending the event
Israeli civilians near the Israel/Gaza border
IDF
[1] CTG Threat Hunter via X
[2] Ibid