(The Situation Update Report [SUR] is a near real-time brief of a possible threat or situation being monitored by The Counter Threat Center. The information is accurate at the time of reporting, but maybe subject to change.)
Meghan Terry, Archie Archie, Ludovica Leccese, AFRICOM/EQC
Finley Thomas, Editor; Alya Fathia Fitri, Senior Editor
November 5, 2024
Election Day[1]
Current Situation: The FBI has issued a statement warning the public of foreign interference on election day, particularly from Russian adversaries, aiming to disrupt proceedings through the distribution of fake media. This fake media intends to incite violence against election officials and instill fear in American voters.[2]
Day/Time of event: November 5, 2024 / Unknown at Time of Report
What is the current threat:
The potential of foreign interference in the US election will likely erode public trust, very likely creating voter skepticism and reducing confidence in the election outcome. Voters will likely question the impact of their vote, with a roughly even chance of them deciding against voting. This lack of confidence in the election process will likely drive heightened partisan tensions between voters of the Democrat and Republican Party, with many asking for increased official scrutiny of voting processes and results, likely leading to post-election disputes.
There is a roughly even chance that exposed cybersecurity weaknesses will cause other foreign and domestic adversaries to utilize these weaknesses to infiltrate further and influence the elections. This will almost certainly further weaken public trust in election integrity.
Foreign hackers will likely interfere by targeting election-related websites such as party members or presidential campaigns, aiming to access sensitive information, including private data on voters.
Falsified media will likely prompt violence against election officials throughout the US, causing the voting process to be disrupted or delayed. The spread of disinformation targeting officials will likely contribute to long term mistrust in the election system, likely making future elections more susceptible to threats from both domestic and foreign actors.
Foreign influence will likely further strain diplomatic tensions between the US and Russia, with a roughly even chance of diplomatic retaliation, such as economic sanctions and trade restrictions. Reduced communication will likely hinder conflict resolution and lead to greater mistrust, increasing the risk of misinterpretation and miscalculation in crisis situations. As tensions rise, Russia will likely intensify its efforts to undermine US global influence, likely targeting US allies with influence campaigns, disinformation, and cyber operations.
Foreign adversaries will very likely target vulnerable communities and try to sway their votes by exploiting their grievances such as the debate regarding the legitimacy of the 2020 election. Bringing up past grievances will likely lead to an increase in violence and marginalization amongst vulnerable communities by fostering doubts and dissatisfaction against the government.
Who will it directly impact:
American voters, both domestic and overseas
US Presidential candidates
US Presidential candidate’s campaigns
US Presidential candidates’ staff
US Election officials
Security officials at election polls
Law enforcement agencies
Cybersecurity agencies
Voter protection organizations
Unlock the power of intelligence and stay steps ahead of global threats. Elevate your career in national security, intelligence, or international affairs with a FREE trial of the Counter Threat Center. Join us at the forefront of safeguarding agencies, organizations, companies, and individuals. Together, we'll detect, deter, and defeat threats, ensuring the safety of those you're sworn to protect. Try it now! Click here to learn more: https://www.counterthreatcenter.com/subscriptions
[1] Election Day, generated by a third party image database
[2] Joint ODNI, FBI, and CISA Statement, Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), November 2024, https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/joint-odni-fbi-and-cisa-statement-110424