Lydia Baccino, Noah Kuttymartin, Jigyasa Maloo NORTHCOM
Naureen Salim, Elena Alice Rossetti Editor; Alya Fathia Fitri, Senior Editor
December 17, 2024
Police Car[1]
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) is issuing a FLASH ALERT to all law enforcement and all citizens following the mass school shooting in Madison, Wisconsin. The suspect, a 15-year-old teenage girl allegedly a student, opened fire at Abundant Life Christian School at approximately 1057 local time, wounding six and killing two individuals. Madison Police Department (MPD) Chief Shon Barnes stated the attending law enforcement officers did not fire and found the suspect dead at the scene from an apparent suicide.[2] Early reports indicate that the suspect used a 9-millimetre pistol and police are working on tracing the origins of the weapon. MPD affirmed that while “the investigation is ongoing, the school has been cleared, and there is no threat to the community. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is working with local officials to obtain search warrants.”[3] This latest shooting occurred after the shooting at Feather River School, a Christian school, on December 11, resulting in severe injuries to two kindergarten children.[4]
CTG is on HIGH alert following the mass shooting at the Abundant Life Christian School in Madison Wisconsin, which left two people dead, including the juvenile responsible for the attack. The incident LIKELY shows the vulnerability of private Christian schools and other religious-based educational institutions to targeted violence, raising concerns about youth radicalization and access to firearms. Faith-based schools will LIKELY remain high-value symbolic targets for extremists, prompting heightened security measures across similar institutions nationwide. This attack has VERY LIKELY increased fears surrounding the safety of educational spaces, particularly those tied to religious communities.
At approximately 1057 local time on December 16, a school shooting occurred at Madison Abundant Life Christian School in Madison, Wisconsin, leaving two dead and six injured. Natalie Rupnow, a 15-year-old teenage girl, a student at the school, used a 9-millimeter firearm to carry out the shooting. The shooter died at the scene, reportedly a suicide as the responding law enforcement officers did not fire the shots. The incident happened in the study hall of the school campus, which serves kindergarten through 12th-grade students. A public safety alert was sent to nearby phones, and neighbors reported hearing gunshots. Madison Police Chief Shon Barnes confirmed that the injured individuals sustained injuries ranging from minor to life-threatening. MPD corrected initial reports of five fatalities, clarifying that two were deceased, with two further individuals in critical condition.[5] Law enforcement no longer deems this an active scene but the investigation is ongoing as they work with the FBI to obtain search warrants.[6] During the briefing, Barbara Wiers, Director of Elementary and School Relations for Abundant Life Christian School, said that the school practiced regular drills and did not use metal detectors but other security measures like closed-circuit television (CCTV) cameras are in operation.[7]
Emergency responders acted quickly, with medics from a nearby training center immediately arriving to provide aid. MPD has the assistance of multiple agencies, including the Dane County Sheriff’s Office, the Monona Police Department, and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms & Explosives (ATF). Roads near the 4900 block of East Buckeye Road remain blocked as authorities conduct secondary searches of buildings and vehicles. A reunification center has been established at the SSM Health/Dean Clinic on Stoughton Road for affected families.[8]
According to data from Statista, there were over 300 K-12 school shooting incidents reported in 2024.[9] The K-12 School Shooting Database reported 323 shootings this year, with 2023 topping the highest with 349.[10] A consistent trend is the demographic profile of shooters, as the majority are male, while female shooters remain rare and account for only a small percentage. The K-12 School Shooting Database shows only nine shooters were female in comparison to 249 who were male.[11] This reflects a significant increase in such attacks in recent years and raises concerns about gun access, youth mental health, and campus security measures.
The shooting very likely raises significant concerns about access to firearms and radicalization especially among the youth. The incident likely exposes the vulnerability of private Christian schools and other religious-based educational institutions, demonstrating the risk of targeted violence against such institutions. The targeting of religious institutions very likely exploits their symbolic and societal significance to the local community, very likely maximizing physical harm and psychological impact. Given the visibility of these venues for the local community, the attack will likely create fear for personal security and lead people to question the sense of safety that these institutions traditionally represent.
The recent attacks on two Christian schools, likely reveal an emerging pattern of targeting religious-based educational institutions. During the holiday season, in the lead-up to the break, schools likely make a high-value target for perpetrators, likely due to schools being a focal point of community gatherings and cultural events. These holiday-related activities will likely create a temporary spike in footfall, providing an opportunity for potential threats. This will likely prompt heightened security measures including controlled access, and security cameras, across similar institutions nationwide before the students leave for holiday break. The coverage of the attack by news media is likely high during the holiday, and its amplification has a roughly even chance of encouraging others to conduct similar attacks. The intense visibility will likely cause the spread of false statements, comments, and disinformation on social media about the perpetrators, victims, and the incidents.
The involvement of a female suspect almost certainly highlights a concerning development, which will likely present challenges to law enforcement. Given that shooters have predominately been male, females, especially teenagers, will likely require law enforcement to move beyond their regular assessment and profiling of the perpetrator. This recent incident will likely necessitate a more nuanced understanding of the perpetrator, their grievances, and pathways to violence. This rarity likely challenges law enforcement's ability to detect warnings and red flags, and they will likely have to consider gender-specific factors and not typical behavioral patterns.
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends schools, particularly religious-affiliated ones, prioritize and increase security measures such as enhanced use of surveillance systems, metal detectors, and controlled access to the premises during the holiday period. Schools should coordinate closely with local authorities and law enforcement to identify and ensure swift response to potential threats.
Schools should conduct more scenario-based drills to enhance preparedness to respond to such situations.
Schools should promote mental health awareness among pupils, by undertaking initiatives to address grievances.
Law enforcement should engage in community awareness campaigns to help the public identify threatening behavior showing signs of radicalization to increase preventive actions. They should focus on examining pathways to violence and including gender-specific factors such as the motivations and grievances of a female shooter.
The FBI and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) should initiate rapid intelligence gathering to determine whether the shooters' actions were premeditated, part of a border trend of school-based violence, or influenced by online radicalization. Authorities should focus on digital footprints, including social media, or possibly extremist forums.
Cybersecurity agencies like the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), should monitor extremist platforms and encrypted communication channels for reactions to the incident and potential calls for similar attacks. These actions should deter any attempts to glorify the event, recruit youth, or provoke copycat behavior.
CTG assesses that the current threat climate is HIGH following the shooting in a Christian school, increasing threats to religious-affiliated educational institutions. Faculty, students, and parents will very likely fear for their personal security, despite the perceived safety of such institutions for the local community during the holiday period. An increase in targeted violence against these institutions will likely heighten societal tension at the local level. While attacks on religious schools have occurred previously including the 2006 Amish school shooting, and the recent Feather River School shooting, a case of female shooter is almost certainly a rare trend. This trend will likely require law enforcement to adjust the profiling and assessment standards.
Analysis indicates that there is a HIGH PROBABILITY of an emerging pattern of target violence against religious-based educational institutions, particularly private Christian schools. The symbolic and societal significance of these institutions VERY LIKELY increases their appeal as targets, especially during the holiday season when schools are focal points for community gatherings and activities. This trend will VERY LIKELY prompt heightened security measures nationwide as similar institutions attempt to mitigate the risk of future attacks. The involvement of a female suspect LIKELY challenges traditional threat assessments, forcing law enforcement to adopt a broader, more nuanced approach to identifying and understanding pathways to violence. Failure to address these vulnerabilities VERY LIKELY increases the risk of copycat attacks, amplifying fear and psychological harm within affected communities.
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[1] Crime Scene, generated by a third party database
[2] Law Enforcement Responding to Report of School Shooter at Madison Abundant Life Christian School, WMTV 15 News, December 2024, https://www.wmtv15news.com/2024/12/16/law-enforcement-responding-report-school-shooter-madison-abundant-life-christian-school/
[3] 2 killed, suspect dead in school shooting in Madison, Wisconsin, police say, CBS News, December 2024, https://www.cbsnews.com/chicago/news/abundant-life-christian-school-shooting-madison-wisconsin/
[4] 2 kindergarteners wounded in Northern California school shooting remain in critical condition after surgery, CBS News , December 2024, https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/news/palermo-butte-county-feather-river-school-shooting/
[5] Law Enforcement Responding to Report of School Shooter at Madison Abundant Life Christian School, WMTV 15 News, December 2024, https://www.wmtv15news.com/2024/12/16/law-enforcement-responding-report-school-shooter-madison-abundant-life-christian-school/
[6] 2 killed, suspect dead in school shooting in Madison, Wisconsin, police say, CBS News, December 2024, https://www.cbsnews.com/chicago/news/abundant-life-christian-school-shooting-madison-wisconsin/
[7] The Latest: Teacher and a student killed in a shooting at a private Christian school in Wisconsin, AP, December 2024, https://apnews.com/article/wisconsin-school-shooting-8c0610859b9fb285a7f67a1dce7b22d9
[8] Law Enforcement Responding to Report of School Shooter at Madison Abundant Life Christian School, WMTV 15 News, December 2024, https://www.wmtv15news.com/2024/12/16/law-enforcement-responding-report-school-shooter-madison-abundant-life-christian-school/
[9] Number of K-12 School Shootings in the U.S., Statista, December 2024, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1463594/number-of-k-12-school-shootings-us/
[10] How Many School Shootings? All Incidents From 1966-Present, K-12 School Shooting Database https://k12ssdb.org/all-shootings
[11] 15-Year-Old Girl Identified as the Shooter in a Wisconsin School, New York Times, December 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/16/us/wisconsin-school-shooting-natalie-rupnow.html