Yassin Belhaj, Mercedes Scheible, Meaghan Mackey, Camilla Raffaelli, Favour Godwill, Anna Leda, Jacqueline Heier, Jigyasa Maloo, Samuel Pearson, Kyle Dillon, William Adams, Paulius Razukevicius, Sabrina Bernardo
Archie Archie, Sakura Morales, Editor; Cameron Munoz, Elena Alice Rossetti, Alya Fathia Fitri, Senior Editor
November 3, 2024
Anti-government Militia Recruitment[1]
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) is issuing a FLASH ALERT to government agencies at the state and federal levels, elected officials, election workers, campaign staff, and citizens in Florida and North Carolina due to social media messages of the anti-government militia, the Three Percenters. Their posts describe the upcoming election as a fundamental threat to the existence of Florida and civilization, labeling state and federal governments as despotic, “unlawful” and “tyrannical.”[2] These remarks come following Hurricane Helene amid frustration over a perceived lack of government assistance. Users assert that peaceful means of appeal have been exhausted and reference April 19, 1775, implying that violent action and “great sacrifice”[3] are the only remaining options. Other posts highlight cooperation between local anti-government militia groups in Florida and North Carolina participating in hurricane victims search activities, which could serve as a pretext for organizing and enhancing recruiting efforts already active in the Jacksonville area.
CTG is on HIGH alert for government workers, election workers, and campaign staff following the Three Percenters anti-government and violent rhetoric on social media. References to “1775” and “absolute despotism” VERY LIKELY indicate plans for anti-government operations disguised as resistance to “unlawful governments.”[4] Discussions on pro-militia forums VERY LIKELY suggest active recruitment tactics exploiting the government’s response to Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton as the election approaches. Three Percenters will VERY LIKELY use former president Trump’s call for military mobilization to justify their armed protest.[5]
Introduction
On November 1, 2024, Florida-based Three Percenter members shared anti-government militia posts on social media forums like Telegram, X, and Facebook. These posts indicate mobilization for potential anti-government activities following perceived disaster management inadequacies to Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton, leading up to the 2024 US presidential election.[6] In these posts, the Three Percenters made references to April 19th, 1775, the Battle of Lexington and Concord, and “absolute despotism,” suggesting a push for militarization and a readiness to confront perceived government failures in disaster response.[7] Since 2009, there have been 200 extremist groups active in the US,[8] and 53 hate groups localized in Florida.[9] Federal authorities arrested around 70 Floridian residents for participation in the January 6, 2021 Insurrection.[10] The Three Percenters are a sub-ideology within the anti-government militia movement, with the protection of the First and Second Amendments and their main points of grievance.[11] They have drawn historical comparisons of the current US government to the British rule in the 1700s, and claim to be modern-day “minutemen” from the American Revolution.[12] Their insignia, a flag of three Roman numerals surrounded by thirteen stars, has been used to market their ideology.[13] This logo has been added on a variety of products, ranging from t-shirts, stickers, and gun embellishments, available on a range of retail sites, such as Amazon.[14] Three Percenters exploit religious terms to appeal to a wider pool of recruits, such as repeatedly mentioning “Jehovah” in posts on social media forums.[15]
In November 2023, four Three Percenters from California were found guilty for their involvement in the January 6, Insurrection of the US capitol, including “conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding” and “misdemeanor offenses of entering and remaining in a restricted building or grounds and disorderly and disruptive conduct in a restricted building or grounds.”[16] Following the Three Percenters’ involvement in the January 6 Insurrection, the group had been operating more underground with a focus on intensifying their recruitment activities on social media platforms, such as Telegram, X, and Facebook.[17] On October 12, 2024, an armed man was arrested in Lake Lure, North Carolina, for making both physical and verbal threats against Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) workers.[18] Although he claims no affiliation with any organization, he called the US government a “terrorist organization,” and social media posts connected to him included content associated with the Three Percenters.[19]
Three Percenters have been increasingly espousing extremist rhetoric on social media, coinciding with former President Trump’s recent call for US military mobilization on October 13, 2024.[20] Three Percenters have been promoting combat training to foster organization for “war” on local, county, and state levels on social media platforms, such as Facebook, Meta, and Telegram.[21] The Three Percenters attempt to legitimize their activities by framing militarization, such as combat training and armed protests, as defensive preparation rather than “openly advocating for offensive violence.”[22] The decentralized nature of their organization facilitates coordination with other like-minded individuals and anti-government militia groups on social media pages.[23]
Analysis
The Three Percenters will likely intensify recruitment efforts on social media platforms, such as Telegram, X, and Facebook, targeting individuals frustrated by the government’s perceived failure in responding to Hurricane Milton and Hurricane Helene. They will likely exploit disaster-related grievances to recruit new members who feel dissatisfied with governmental institutions, particularly in areas affected by recent hurricanes, such as Jacksonville. They will very likely benefit from misinformation and conspiracy theories claiming the government geoengineered the hurricane, very likely exploiting this narrative to increase recruits. This tactic will likely drive rapid and large-scale recruitment, likely positioning the group as an outlet for popular discontent against government inaction. Based on the success of similar misinformation tactics in the past, the group will likely grow and spread extremist views within these communities. New recruits will likely feel motivated by a sense of betrayal and resentment of the current government system, very likely being more receptive to the group’s anti-government rhetoric, creating a foundation for violent extremism in such areas. Three Percenters will very likely use symbols in their online recruitment, such as blue lives matter and Confederate flags, to appeal to like-minded individuals. Lone extremists and social outcasts who lack a sense of community are likely more susceptible to these radicalization efforts. There is a roughly even chance that active and former members of both law enforcement and the military who feel disenfranchised by the US government are prone to the Three Percenters online recruitment efforts.
Some Three Percenters in Florida will likely view the state government as failing to protect their rights or advance their ideological causes. These individuals will likely target the Florida state government with threats or armed attacks on state government facilities, likely seeking a self-defined justice for their grievances. Some will likely view the state government as having incurred divine punishment due to the recent hurricane, which will very likely increase their threat level to the state government. The Three Percenters and other anti-government militia groups will very likely continue harboring grievances against the federal government, likely as misinformation drives the perception citizens cannot rely on federal government institutions in times of emergencies. Recent disinformation regarding FEMA favoring illegal immigrants over US citizens will likely motivate persistent threats against federal buildings and officials, particularly in the Tampa Bay area. The Three Percenters will likely try to undermine FEMA disaster relief efforts to intensify perceived grievances and motivate individuals to join their cause. Evictions across Florida due to the damage from Hurricane Milton will very likely resonate with the anti-government views of the Three Percenters, likely increasing the risk of federal employees from agencies like FEMA or agencies that protect the rights of landlords to evict tenants to be the target of harassment or violent attacks.
The Three Percenters' reference to “1775” and “absolute despotism”[24] very likely suggest a deliberate attempt to frame the US government as unjust, very likely justifying their action to rally support and incite violence. The ongoing federal prosecution against rioters involved in the Insurrection will likely heighten the threat environment. Leading up to the election, repeated claims of voter fraud and interference will very likely reinforce their rhetoric that the government is complicit in undermining liberty and democracy. The sense of urgency has a roughly even chance of inspiring and encouraging lone actors to take action, very likely believing to contribute to the larger cause of defending the vision of the Founding Fathers.[25] Civilian distrust in the government will very likely prevent proper enforcement of laws and the justice system, likely adding to the perception of government failures to protect.
The Three Percenters will almost certainly leverage their involvement in local disaster relief efforts to build coordinated networks, likely avoiding law enforcement scrutiny while increasing potential ties with anti-government groups and communities that may share similar grievances. They will very likely leverage informal interactions with community members to share their ideology, likely leading to the establishment of decentralized networks. These decentralized networks will likely allow the group to spread quickly, which will very likely increase the risk of organized anti-government actions as the election approaches. Such alliances will likely help the group recruit more members, very likely thanks to the fragmentation of shared grievances to aid anti-government efforts. Alliances with other like-minded groups and individuals will likely aid Three Percenters in establishing local influence, likely using connections to increase their actions.
Former President Trump’s call for military mobilization very likely legitimizes the Three Percenters' justification for armed protest and defense. The Three Percenters will very likely use Trump’s statement as a rallying point to bolster their narrative, likely encouraging Florida-based members to mobilize in defense against government inaction. This endorsement from Trump will likely galvanize support, attract new recruits, and intensify anti-government activities in Florida leading up to the election. Three Percenters will very likely leverage Trump’s call to action on pro-militia social media forums. This will very likely heighten their visibility online, and recruitment efforts will likely lead to an increase in organized meet-ups, training sessions, and demonstrations in Florida. There is a roughly even chance that anti-government militia group support will embolden Trump’s hate speech rhetoric and intensify his violent call to action, likely leading to more public anti-government protests.
Three Percenters will unlikely launch offensive attacks as a national organization, likely organizing local demonstrations. Extremist individuals and small groups, frustrated by the lack of political progress for the Three Percenters movement, will likely plan and attempt offensive attacks, such as active shooter or bomb attacks if Harris wins the election. These attacks and threats will likely target both federal and state politicians, likely believing that policymakers cannot or will not advance the Three Percenters’ goals of preventing perceived government overreach. Local groups of Three Percenters will likely mount armed demonstrations claiming they are guarding polling stations and federal and state government buildings, likely to intimidate the occupants of these places. Three Percenters will very likely spread disinformation regarding the responses they meet while holding these demonstrations, very likely claiming either government repression or that law enforcement supports the Three Percenters movement.
The upcoming national election will very likely increase the Three Percenters’ grievances, likely worsening the current threat environment and the risk of political violence. Three Percenters will likely perceive any unfavorable election results to former President Donald Trump as an act of despotism, likely incentivizing the group to deploy members to combat the perceived threat to the US. Members of the group will very likely look to overturn any unfavorable election results, as they likely deem any Trump loss as election fraud. The Three Percenters will very likely coordinate with other conspiracy groups, such as the Oath Keepers, to organize larger, more impactful operations, similar to their collaboration on the Insurrection. Attempts to overturn unfavorable election results will likely include deployment of anti-government militia contingents likely focused in Georgia around the Three Percenters' known security establishments in the region, such as the Three Percenters Georgia Martyrs militia headquarters and the Three Percenter Security Force.
Recommendations
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends that all levels of law enforcement, intelligence agencies, and emergency response teams implement a proactive, coordinated strategy to address the threat posed by anti-government militia groups in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and nearby areas.
Federal agencies, including the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), should increase surveillance and intelligence-gathering efforts on anti-government militia groups across disaster-impacted areas to counter potential threats to election security.
The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) should increase its collaboration with state and local agencies to implement protocols for tracking online mobilization. This agency should create a database for intelligence sharing to prevent the planning of anti-government actions in the early stages.
Election security teams and state agencies, such as FBI Tampa and FBI Charlotte, should work together to monitor anti-government militia recruitment and disaster-impacted communities, like Jacksonville, to identify and take action against anti-government threats in real-time.
Local and state governments should implement post-election efforts to monitor how the Three Percenters respond to the results and verify the legitimacy of threats to officials.
The Florida Department of Law Enforcement (FDLE), the North Carolina State Bureau of Investigation (SBI), and local police departments in high-risk areas like Jacksonville, should have a rapid response plan for potential election-related violence, particularly in areas with significant anti-government militia activity, such as Georgia. Law enforcement should establish communication channels with election officials to ensure swift updates and responses if election-related threats and violence emerge, such as voter intimidation, harassment, and vandalism.
Florida and North Carolina state governments should support community programs aimed at reducing anti-government militia influence by addressing local grievances and fostering positive engagement with law enforcement.
FEMA should coordinate with state government and law enforcement to develop situational awareness of the recovery phase and develop preemptive strategies to counter extremist narratives. FEMA should partner with local community organizations to conduct proactive outreach campaigns in hurricane-affected areas and build public trust in the federal response mechanism for disasters.
FEMA should develop clear communication on relief efforts to avoid any misinformation that will likely be exploited by the Three Percenters and other anti-government militia groups, such as the Boogaloo Movement. They should use traditional and social media, as well as community meetings, to ensure effective communication.
Federal and state/local governments should implement efforts to monitor individuals at risk of recruitment by the Three Percenters and other like-minded groups in the military and local police forces throughout the US. Considering the communication, logistical, and tactical skills of these personnel, targeted efforts should be aimed at these groups.
Social media users should approach political discourse online carefully, avoiding politically-charged discussions by users using the terms “1775” and “absolute despotism,” and showcasing the Three Percenters’ insignia on their profiles.
Social media users should approach discourse on disaster relief efforts carefully, as the Three Percenters could exploit grievances expressed for recruitment.
Social media users should pay attention to potential recruitment efforts by anti-government militia groups through platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, Telegram, X, and Truth Social, being mindful of far-right rhetoric and hate symbols, such as the Confederate flag and swastikas.
Social media users should utilize built-in reporting tools on platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, Telegram, X, and Truth Social.
Social media users should use hotlines for law enforcement agencies to report posts or accounts indicating violence toward the US elections.
CTG assesses that the current threat climate is HIGH due to the possible increase in radicalization and polarization of the US elections. Three Percenters and other anti-government militia organizations will very likely exploit grievances towards the government, particularly in disaster-affected areas. They will very likely use social media platforms to spread extremist ideologies targeted at radicalization and recruitment. Florida-based members of the Three Percenters, as well as other anti-government militia organizations, will very likely mobilize actions toward an armed attack, following former President Trump’s call for military mobilization. Occupants in and around polling stations and government buildings will likely face intimidation and poll harassment from Three Percenters, who will likely mount armed demonstrations to guard polling stations. The Three Percenters will likely leverage disaster-affected communities' vulnerability to recruit citizens.
Analysis indicates that there is a HIGH PROBABILITY of increased politically motivated violence directed at oppositional individuals, including public officials, poll workers, and citizens, caused by radical discourse inside the Florida-based Three Percenters militia organization. Supporters will VERY LIKELY perceive such discussion as demands to reject unlawful governments with direct action, raising the danger of violence against election procedures.
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[1] Social media recruitment, generated by third party database
[2] Threat Hunter on MyMilitia
[3] Ibid
[4] Ibid
[5] Trump urges using military to handle ‘radical left lunatics’ on Election Day, The Washington Post, October 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/13/trump-military-enemies-within/
[6] Threat Hunter on MyMilitia
[7] Ibid
[8] Three Percenters, ADL, June 2017, https://www.adl.org/resources/backgrounder/three-percenters
[9] Members of hate groups have a 'significant presence' in the Tampa Bay area, NPR, May 2022, https://www.wusf.org/courts-law/2022-05-04/members-of-hate-groups-have-a-significant-presence-in-the-tampa-bay-area
[10] Florida connections to the January 6 U.S. Capitol riot: A Top 10 list, Palm Beach Post, January 2022, https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/state/2022/01/04/jan-6-capitol-riot-insurrection-florida-connections-top-10-list/9055949002/
[11] The Three Percenters: A Look Inside an Anti-Government Militia, NewsLines Institute for Strategy and Policy, 2021, https://newlinesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/20210225-Three-Percenter-PR-NISAP-rev051021.pdf
[12] The Three Percenters: A Look Inside an Anti-Government Militia, NewsLines Institute for Strategy and Policy, 2021, https://newlinesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/20210225-Three-Percenter-PR-NISAP-rev051021.pdf
[13] Three Percenters, ADL, June 2017, https://www.adl.org/resources/backgrounder/three-percenters
[14] Ibid
[15] Threat Hunter on MyMilitia
[16] Four Three Percenters from California Found Guilty of Conspiracy and Other Charges Related to Jan. 6 Capitol Breach, United States Attorney’s Office District of Columbia, November 2023,
[17]Facebook Is Auto-Generating Militia Group Pages as Extremists Continue to Organize in Plain Sight, Wired, October 2024, https://www.wired.com/story/facebook-militia-organizing-election/
[18] Man arrested for allegedly threatening to harm FEMA workers in North Carolina, ABC News, October 2024, https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/threats-fema-workers-north-carolina-sheriff/story?id=114776904
[19] Hurricane recovery disrupted by threats to relief workers, BBC, October 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgndn8zdreo
[20] Trump urges using military to handle ‘radical left lunatics’ on Election Day, The Washington Post, October 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/13/trump-military-enemies-within/
[21] Ibid
[22] The Three Percenters: A Look Inside an Anti-Government Militia, NewsLines Institute for Strategy and Policy, 2021, https://newlinesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/20210225-Three-Percenter-PR-NISAP-rev051021.pdf
[23] Ibid
[24] Threat Hunter on MyMilitia
[25] The Three Percenters, https://thethreepercenters.org/