Mercedes Scheible, Yassin Belhaj, Samuel Pearson, Camilla Raffaelli, NORTHCOM
Elena Alice Rossetti, Alice Cian, Finley Thomas, Clémence Van Damme, Editor; Evan Beachler, Radhika Venkatachalam, Senior Editor
September 14, 2024
Far-right Activists[1]
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) is issuing a FLASH ALERT to all law enforcement (LE) agencies and Haitian community centers across the US following recent statements by former President Donald Trump regarding Haitian immigrants. Trump’s call for mass deportations VERY LIKELY heightens tensions, building on false claims from far-right activists, including Neo-Nazis, about Haitians harming animals.[2] Disinformation LIKELY motivated bomb threats in Springfield, Ohio, prompting the evacuation of schools and the city hall.[3] The severity of the situation demands a proactive and vigilant response by LE to prevent escalating violence and protect Haitian communities from potential hate crimes and attacks.
CTG is on HIGH alert for threats against Haitian communities after former President Donald Trump’s public statements about deporting Haitian immigrants from Springfield, Ohio. Increases in online disinformation will VERY LIKELY activate radicalized threat actors, leading to threats and attacks against Haitian immigrants and people of color, given the extent of racist disinformation targeting these communities. Trump’s high-profile endorsement of far-right disinformation narratives will VERY LIKELY lead individuals vulnerable to radicalization into extremist circles, LIKELY leading to future attacks over the long term. Targets ALMOST CERTAINLY include Haitian communities and cities with large Haitian populations and LIKELY other ethnic minority communities.
Local media reported on September 9, 2024, that a Facebook group post for Springfield residents went viral, claiming that a resident’s acquaintance found their missing cat hanging from a Haitian neighbor’s tree, having been cut open for eating.[4] According to the Springfield City Police Department, there is no evidence of attacks on animals by Haitian immigrants.[5] On September 10, 2024, during the televised US presidential debate that began at 2000 local time, former US President Donald Trump stated, “In Springfield, [immigrants] are eating the dogs. The people that came in. They're eating the cats. They're eating -- they're eating the pets of the people that live there.”[6] On September 13, 2024, Trump announced his support for deporting Haitians from Springfield, Ohio. Trump also claimed Haitian immigrants had seized control of Springfield and alleged migrants were perpetrating sexual crimes against American girls.[7] Neo-Nazi group Blood Tribe allegedly played a role in spreading disinformation regarding immigrant attacks on animals by posting these narratives online via encrypted messaging apps and social media. On August 26, 2024, the mayor ejected a member of Blood Tribe from a Springfield city meeting for racist speech.[8]
Google searches for Springfield, Ohio, increased 20 times over between 2000-2100 local time, September 10, 2024, driven mainly by increased numbers of searches from Ohio residents.[9] On September 12 and 13, 2024, three Springfield schools closed or evacuated after they received bomb threats. Springfield City Hall, the Ohio Bureau of Motor Vehicles in Springfield, and the Ohio License Bureau Southside also received threats via email.[10]
Trump’s widely disseminated rhetoric will very likely lead individuals vulnerable to radicalization into seeking extremist content online and from in-person far-right groups as they search for the claims that underpinned his speech. The former President’s implication that Springfield migrants are committing crimes against children and pets will very likely motivate individuals convinced by his statements to seek ways to avert this imagined reality from continuing. Far-right groups will very likely portray themselves as combating this perceived threat to recruit potential threat actors. Lone threat actors will likely draw inspiration from extreme narratives online to plan and target their attacks. Given the highly varied nature of the radicalization process, timelines for future attacks will almost certainly depend on the people involved and could span months or years, likely leading to a persistent threat of harm to minority communities.
Neo-Nazi and far-right groups like the Blood Tribe will very likely actively recruit and propagandize on encrypted apps such as Telegram and Gabe to exploit their current success. These groups will likely exploit the highly polarized political climate to fuel their anti-immigration agenda and spread the white supremacist ideology, likely attempting to recruit individuals who feel their core values threatened by their political opponents. With disinformation echoed by Trump and Vance, MAGA supporters are likely to see extreme-right groups, like the Blood Tribe, as political allies. These groups will very likely attend Trump rallies, likely increasing the threat of violence at these demonstrations. Anti-Haitian immigration demonstrations will likely start taking place, following one that took place on August 10, 2024, during which a dozen masked Blood Tribe members marched through Springfield’s music festival with swastika flags.[11]
Far-right groups will very likely attempt to hold government officials accountable for permitting or encouraging the alleged harms perpetrated by Haitian immigrants, given that bomb threats targeted government buildings. Some Ohio-based threat actors will likely focus their efforts on their local government. Far-right actors outside Ohio will likely focus on the federal government but very likely view the Springfield municipal government as symbolic of the problems they perceive in American society and issue threats against the municipal government and other city agencies, such as school districts and utility departments. This perception will very likely lead to a severe threat environment for city officials, teachers, and students.
Racist attacks against Haitians and immigrant communities will likely increase as disinformation spreads on social media in the lead-up to the presidential election. Disinformation will likely spread on platforms like X, Instagram, and Facebook, given the minimal content moderation driven by far-right accounts with large followings. Other platforms normally preferred by alt-right users, such as Rumble, Kick, and Parler, will very likely highlight uncontested claims and hate speech against immigrant communities, as one-sided discourse will spread within alt-right echo chambers.[12] Memes and AI-generated images will almost certainly multiply, portraying Trump as a champion of animal rights while vilifying Haitian immigrant communities. Far-right groups will very likely replicate the meme format for future disinformation campaigns, continuing propaganda threats.
Far-right activists will almost certainly continue to spread hateful narratives targeting Haitians. These narratives will almost certainly depict Haitian migrants as threats to American citizens through allegations of violent crimes, sexual violence, and anti-social behavior, very likely reiterating existing racist stereotypes. Social media users within the far-right bubble will very likely spread further allegations of Haitian immigrants killing pets to engage in voodoo rituals, very likely dismissing debunking attempts as unworthy of attention and mainstream media.[13] Far-right actors will likely target other Caribbean ethnic communities due to confusion or ignorance. Community centers and immigrant facilities will very likely experience an increase in bomb threats, phishing emails, protests, and other forms of harassment.
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends that Haitian schools and community centers increase their security by adding surveillance and increasing staff trained to handle emergencies in the event of escalating violence.
CTG recommends that US LE increases its monitoring of encrypted platforms like Telegram and Gab to disrupt far-right groups' recruitment and propaganda efforts.
CTG recommends that the Springfield police department seek federal assistance to disrupt threatening groups and individuals across state lines.
CTG advises that LE to work closely with national security to prevent any violent extremist actions, focusing on areas vulnerable to hate crimes against Haitians.
CTG recommends that US LE conduct security assessments of vulnerable locations that could benefit from additional security measures and implement additional security tools such as cameras and alarms.
CTG recommends that US LE coordinate with local media to ensure accurate reporting of the Haitian community, reducing misinformation that can fuel extremist violence.
CTG recommends that US LE coordinate with community officials to develop response networks that can quickly alert the communities in case of potential emergency situations and attacks.
CTG assesses that the current threat climate is HIGH due to the increasing likelihood of hate-driven violence against Haitian communities. The likely threats include intensified hate crimes, threats to public safety, and the spread of extremist ideologies in areas with a large immigrant population. Social media platforms will very likely continue to intensify such claims, increasing the potential for radicalization by extremist groups. The spread of disinformation will almost certainly affect Haitian communities, with other immigrant communities also very likely becoming targets.
Analysis indicates that there is a HIGH PROBABILITY of increased hate speech, radicalization, and attacks toward immigrant communities driven by misinformation spreading across social media platforms during the election period. This movement will LIKELY increase threats against Haitian community centers and public spaces. The spread of misinformation will VERY LIKELY increase the risk of threats and attacks.
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[1] Far-right Activists, generated by a third party image database (created by AI)
[2] JD Vance spreads debunked claims about Haitian immigrants eating pets, NPR, September 2024, https://www.npr.org/2024/09/10/nx-s1-5107320/jd-vance-springfield-ohio-haitians-pets
[3] Bomb threats force second consecutive day of school closures in Springfield, Ohio, NBC News, September 2024, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/bomb-threats-force-second-consecutive-day-school-closures-springfield-rcna171043
[4] Springfield police say no reports of pets stolen, eaten, after viral social media post, Springfield News-Sun, September 2024,https://www.springfieldnewssun.com/news/springfield-police-say-no-reports-of-pets-stolen-after-viral-social-media-post/3WSIZQNHQVE4NP4TS5BVHBB2PY/
[5] Ibid.
[6] READ: Harris-Trump presidential debate transcript, ABC News, September 2024, https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-trump-presidential-debate-transcript/story?id=113560542
[7] Trump pledges to deport Haitians in Ohio city if elected, Reuters, September, 2024 https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-says-attacks-haitian-immigrants-have-stop-2024-09-13/
[8] Springfield city meeting sees protest, removal of Nazi group speaker,Springfield Sun-News, August 2024, https://www.springfieldnewssun.com/news/residents-protest-at-springfield-city-hall-amid-haiti-tension/PTUZ3XM2GJGKJLRYPY6THL3HYA/
[9] Google Trends, https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&geo=US&q=Springfield%20Ohio&hl=en
[10] Bomb threats force second consecutive day of school closures in Springfield, Ohio, NBC News, September 2024, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/bomb-threats-force-second-consecutive-day-school-closures-springfield-rcna171043
[11] Springfield city meeting sees protest, removal of Nazi group speaker, Springfield News-Sun, August 2024, https://www.springfieldnewssun.com/news/residents-protest-at-springfield-city-hall-amid-haiti-tension/PTUZ3XM2GJGKJLRYPY6THL3HYA/
[12] Fact-Checked on Facebook and Twitter, Conservatives Switch Their Apps, The New York Times, November 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/11/technology/parler-rumble-newsmax.html
[13] Fact check: Disinformation targets Haitian migrants, Deutsche Welle, September 2024, https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-how-the-stigmatization-of-haitian-vodou-led-to-a-disinformation-campaign/a-70200764