Finley Thomas, Oliver Waters, Camilla Raffaelli, Samuel Pearson, NORTHCOM
Samantha Mikulskis, Clémence Van Damme, Alice Cian Editors; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor
November 3, 2024
Mobilizing Groups[1]
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) is issuing a FLASH ALERT to government agencies at the state and federal level, election staff and officials, campaign workers, voters, and the public, due to increased mobilization discourse among far-right and election-related conspiracy theorist groups on social media platforms like Telegram.[2] The Proud Boys on Telegram have been calling for involved individuals to monitor election results and be ready to dispute a potential Democratic win across swing states, such as North Carolina, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, fomenting anti-government discourse with pervasive conspiracism.[3] The Proud Boys members are spreading numerous misinformation narratives aimed at undermining election integrity and results.[4]
CTG is on HIGH alert for far-right extremists threatening violence ahead of the 2024 US Election Day (November 5). Extremist groups, particularly the Proud Boys, are VERY LIKELY mobilizing members to contest the election results violently if their preferred candidate loses the national poll. Extremists from other far-right factions, including Neo-Nazis and white nationalists, will VERY LIKELY support these efforts, through coordinated propaganda, intimidation, and violence. Narratives across multiple social media platforms will VERY LIKELY continue to claim that political solutions are unavailable to those supporting far-right causes, and advocating for violence. These messages will VERY LIKELY drive threats and attacks in the near to medium term, particularly if presidential candidate Kamala Harris becomes President.
Introduction
American far-right groups on Telegram have shared messages preparing to dispute election results in Democrat-leaning areas. Far-right channels on Telegram promote conspiratorial rhetoric questioning election integrity in swing states including North Carolina, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.[5] Messages include coordinating poll-watchers to challenge votes, urging members to participate in local election meetings and rallies, and soliciting financial donations. The Proud Boys are spreading propaganda on Telegram with pictures of members carrying rifles with the caption “THERE IS NO POLITICAL SOLUTION,” highlighting the group’s violent intentions.[6] Christian extremist nationalists used the Proud Boys’ phrasing to describe the need for religious struggle, at times framing it as an endless or life-and-death struggle against evil.[7] Anti-government far-right accounts have used this wording to argue for the “physical removal” of the “DC regime,” implying electoral violence as part of a second American revolution, often quoting the 1776 Declaration of Independence.[8] The slogan featured on posts produced by Neo-Nazi accounts in November 2024, promoting the Great Replacement Theory,[9] a conspiracy theory claiming that white citizens of Western countries are slowly being replaced by non-white people and proposing anti-semitic talking points.[10]
The Proud Boys have been actively recruiting online since the January 6, 2021 Insurrection, discussing violent action, including scuffles with LGBTQ+ advocates at pride events in 2023, and sharing reactions to political news.[11] The Proud Boys’ members testified that they considered themselves the “tip of the spear” at the time of the Insurrection, and wore badges advertising nationalist slogans, including the moniker “Far-right Death Squad.”[12] They support far-right political causes through intimidation and propaganda, both online and in-person at rallies and demonstrations by mainstream political movements.[13]
Analysis
Far-right groups will almost certainly intensify efforts to spread election denialism on unmoderated platforms, such as Telegram, in the lead-up to election day, likely claiming that Democrats rigged voting to challenge election integrity and results. Election denialist narratives, likely presented as protecting democracy, will very likely appeal to individuals already skeptical of government institutions, likely broadening the movement’s reach beyond core extremist groups. US far-right groups, such as the Proud Boys, will very likely escalate their efforts, including posting manipulated images or videos, aimed at fueling skepticism in closely contested states such as North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, both leading up to and following the election. Limited moderation on platforms like Telegram will almost certainly spread denialist content widely, making it challenging for authorities and fact-checkers to counter disinformation quickly and very likely swaying undecided voters toward Donald Trump. The spread of denialist content will likely erode public trust in the electoral process, likely deepening political divides and fostering greater instability in the US after the election.
By spreading propaganda arguing that peaceful political actions, such as voting or demonstrations, will not help achieve their goals, the Proud Boys’ leaders are very likely preparing their members for violent action if Harris wins the election. A Harris victory will very likely confirm the Proud Boys’ belief that lawful solutions are unviable for their movement, as this perception will likely deepen their distrust in democratic institutions and increase the risk that they adopt extremist tactics. This perception will likely lead some of these extremists to adopt openly violent methods, including armed demonstrations in sensitive areas, such as outside of government buildings and polling stations. Other far-right extremists, including Neo-Nazis and White Supremacists, will very likely view the election as an opportunity to threaten and attack targets, including Democratic Party officials and activists, government policymakers, poll workers, and election administrators. Opportunist threat actors, including anti-state extremists and anarchists, will likely take advantage of instability by disrupting government operations through attacks on federal agencies and law enforcement staff, likely increasing the breadth and variety of potential threats.
There is a roughly even chance that election interference efforts will cause different extremist groups to collaborate on techniques and temporarily merge their groups. The convergence of aims and grievances will very likely create a more fluid threat environment, likely undermining prevention efforts and security measures put in place by law enforcement, including the authorization for local authorities to order National Guard personnel to intervene at polling stations. Despite being united by some grievances, some groups may differ greatly in goals, populace, and election disruption techniques, likely leading to inter-group infighting and unexpected incidents that will likely require law enforcement’s attention. Law enforcement and the National Guard will very likely face additional threats posed by extremist groups clashing against one another, very likely endangering civilians and election officials at voting sites.
Telegram’s limited moderation will almost certainly make it a key coordination tool for far-right groups in the US, who will likely rely on the platform to organize protests and incite violence during and after the elections. The Proud Boys will likely use Telegram to disrupt election certification in swing states projected for Democratic wins, likely organizing efforts to intimidate election workers, by carrying weapons near polling stations and physically confronting local officials. Their efforts will very likely align with Neo-Nazi groups, who will likely use election denial to incite violence against ethnic minority voters and left-leaning politicians, perceived as supporting the great replacement of white citizens by immigrants.
Recommendations
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends that law enforcement increase security measures and intelligence-gathering efforts in a coordinated manner between federal and state levels to address the threat of violence from mobilization messages on the Proud Boys’ communication channels.
Federal agencies like the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) should enhance their surveillance of far-right groups using Telegram to mobilize support and plan disruptive activities.
The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Agency (CISA) should collaborate with state and local authorities to monitor online communications, focusing specifically on organizational activities on Telegram.
Law enforcement agencies at both state and local levels must coordinate to track recruitment activities of far-right groups in key battleground states, quickly identifying and neutralizing potential threats during the election process.
Law enforcement should cooperate with the National Guard to safeguard the electoral process and ensure election officials’ safety from potential far-right groups’ violence.
Social media users should remain vigilant in their online discourse, especially when engaging in politically charged discussions. Users should flag and report any posts on social media platforms promoting violence or extremist ideologies related to the US elections.
Social media companies should use machine learning algorithms to identify words and phrases used by extremist actors to plan and advocate for violence.
Social media companies should manually review machine-identified accounts using flagged language and remove posts containing violence-inciting rhetoric against election processes or voters.
Individuals should contact law enforcement via hotlines to report any threats or concerning online activities surrounding the elections.
CTG assesses that the current threat climate is HIGH due to the increased discourse by far-right groups regarding armed mobilization in the context of the 2024 Presidential Election. The Proud Boys, like-minded extremists, and armed groups will very likely exploit common grievances regarding a potential Democratic win to undermine the electoral process via different channels, both kinetic and online. Such threats will almost certainly impact election officials and overseers, who will very likely face pressure, threats of violence, and potential violence. Other extremist groups, such as the Three Percenters, will very likely employ similar techniques of intimidation, likely uniting forces with the Proud Boys. Shared grievances and common grounds will likely lead groups to converge efforts, but differences in aims, ideologies, and methods will likely cause disturbance and inter-group incidents.
Analysis indicates that there is a HIGH PROBABILITY that a broad range of far-right groups, including the Proud Boys and Neo-Nazis, are preparing to carry out violence against election workers following the election, with a ROUGHLY EVEN CHANCE that these groups will coordinate their efforts together. Extremists will VERY LIKELY attempt to undermine public confidence in election results by discrediting democratic processes through disinformation on social media, VERY LIKELY using this rhetoric to justify violence against Democratic candidates following a Harris victory. Far-right groups will VERY LIKELY exploit this disinformation to influence undecided to support both Trump and their own agendas, with Neo-Nazi groups LIKELY exploiting this rhetoric to justify racially motivated attacks against ethnic minority communities.
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[1] Protest, generated by a third party database
[2] On Telegram, a Violent Preview of What May Unfold on Election Day and After, The New York Times, November 4, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/04/technology/telegram-right-wing-groups-election.html
[3] Ibid
[4] Threat Hunter on Telegram
[5] On Telegram, a Violent Preview of What May Unfold on Election Day and After, The New York Times, November 4, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/04/technology/telegram-right-wing-groups-election.html
[6] Threat Hunter on Telegram
[7] Threat Hunter on Truth Social.
[8] @AeroWolfOne, X, November 3, 2024, https://x.com/AeroWolfOne/status/1853124867140493555
[9] @ VanillaVillanB, X, November 2, 2024, https://x.com/VanillaVillainB/status/1852826922390028673
[10] @Tim_Luze, X, November 4, 2024,https://x.com/Tim_Lutze/status/1853319593458073659
[11] The Proud Boys are back: How the far-right group is rebuilding to rally behind Trump, Reuters, June 2024, https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-election-proudboys/
[12] PSA: THE PROUD BOYS AND OTHER MISOGYNIST/MALE-CENTERED GROUPS POSE SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO CIVILIANS AND OFFICIALS; LAW ENFORCEMENT SHOULD MONITOR RALLIES, PROTESTS, AND ELECTION EVENTS by Oliver Waters, Dominic Bianco, Jacob Robison, Samuel Pearson, October 7, 2024
[13]Ibid