John Impallomeni; Joe Pollard; Sabrina Bernardo, Amelia Bell, Jigyasa Maloo, Noah Kuttymartin, Hae Lim Park, James Raggio, Clémence Van Damme, Editor; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor
September 19, 2024
An Israeli Town at Risk From Hezbollah Retaliation[1]
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) is issuing a FLASH ALERT after Israeli warplanes conducted aerial attacks targeting Beirut, Lebanon, in the early morning, local time.[2] The detonation of electronic communications devices prompted a televised broadcast response from Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah indicating the attacks have crossed all red lines and could be considered war crimes or a declaration of war.[3] At the time of this telecast, explosions could be heard from Israel warplanes striking southern Lebanon and Hezbollah reports the attacks continued into the early afternoon, local time.[4] Nasrallah advised he hopes Israeli ground troops enter southern Lebanon so Iranian-backed forces may deal with them, indicating an anticipated ground assault may be next after Israel disrupted communications and conducted aerial attacks, escalating the conflict to an all-out war.[5]
CTG is on HIGH alert following aerial attacks by Israeli warplanes targeting Southern Lebanon. Rising death tolls, injuries, and damage to critical infrastructure will VERY LIKELY overwhelm the Lebanese emergency services response. Hezbollah leader's speech defining these attacks as war crimes will LIKELY increase global anti-Israeli viewpoints. Israel will VERY LIKELY coordinate a ground assault strategy after successfully disrupting Hezbollah communications and employing aerial attacks. Nasrallah’s hope for Israel to move ground troops to southern Lebanon ALMOST CERTAINLY indicates that Hezbollah will be prepared, VERY LIKELY resulting in a high-casualty rate and collateral damage in general.
Introduction
On September 19, 2024, Israeli warplanes carried out airstrikes across Beirut on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. These aerial attacks follow the recent escalation involving the detonation of electronic communication devices used by Hezbollah members, a plot allegedly perpetrated by Israel.[6] In response to the attacks, Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, delivered a televised speech condemning Israel’s actions and stating that they “could be considered war crimes or a declaration of war.”[7] Throughout the broadcast, sonic booms from Israeli warplanes could be heard as they flew at low altitudes over Beirut, in South Lebanon, shaking buildings and leaving Lebanese residents fearing major escalations.[8] Although the IDF has not taken accountability for the recent pager and walkie-talkie attacks, they stated that the air strikes aim to disrupt Hezbollah’s "terrorist capabilities and infrastructure"[9] to "bring security to northern Israel to enable the return of residents to their homes and achieve war goals."[10]
In a briefing with Israeli Military officials, Israel's Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, stated that although action against Hezbollah would continue, there would be “significant risks” and has warned Hezbollah that they “will pay an increasing price.”[11] In a message to Nasrallah today, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Commander Hossein Salami, said Israel “will soon be met with a crushing response from the axis of resistance.”[12] In response to the heightened tensions across the Middle East, the Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, Tor Wennesland, has urged all parties involved “to refrain from steps that will exacerbate the situation and take immediate steps to de-escalate.”[13] The heightened risk for civilians across Lebanon and Israel has led the UK’s Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, to call for British nationals to leave Lebanon and the US Secretary of Defense to postpone his trip to Israel.[14]
The Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon will very likely result in increasing casualties and damage to critical infrastructure. Future assaults will very likely exacerbate the strain on the emergency response services, which have already been crippled by the pager and walkie-talkie attacks. The psychological impact of the detonation of electronic communications devices will very likely limit the dependence of first responders on these communication channels, slowing their response times. The limited capacity of hospitals and medical staff will likely reduce their ability to treat victims effectively. Fire services will likely face communication breakdown in times of explosions and fires from airstrikes, likely increasing risk to lives and property.
Nasrallah’s speech almost certainly warns that Hezbollah is prepared for the scenario where Israel moves ground troops into southern Lebanon. The speech very likely attempts to signal Israel that continued attacks will increase the risk for them, likely justifying severe retaliation by Hezbollah. The condemnation of the recent series of attacks by Israel throughout the speech very likely aims to demonstrate Hezbollah as a defender of Lebanon and very likely as a powerful belligerent force against Israel in the Middle East. It is very likely a message to its allies, i.e. the Axis of Resistance[15] in the region, seeking their support in a scenario of further escalation. The statement of calling these attacks a war crime will likely seek to intensify anti-Israeli sentiments globally, likely emphasizing that Israeli war crimes extend beyond Gaza and the West Bank. This will very likely increase diplomatic pressure and call for restraint from the UN and key allies such as the US.
The recent escalation and Nasrallah’s speech will likely call for a concerted front among the Axis of Resistance, likely implying attacks from Hamas, the Houthis, and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq on Israeli positions. This will likely involve attacks from multiple fronts, likely aiming to stretch Israeli military resources thin. The statement of support by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Commander likely reflects rhetorical pressure on Israel and operational assistance to the Axis of Resistance. Given the history of deterrence calculation adopted by Iran to avoid direct full-scale war with Israel, it will very likely augment funding and intelligence assistance to its proxies.
The successful disruption of the communication network will very likely provide Israel with a strategic advantage for a ground assault in southern Lebanon. The vulnerability is likely short-term, as communication lines will very likely be re-established and restored with Iran and Axis of Resistance technological support. Israel will very likely leverage Hezbollah’s inability to coordinate the exchange of intelligence, and the tactical/logistical movement quickly, likely delaying an organized response from Hezbollah. Israel will likely use this opportunity to further its incursion into Hezbollah-controlled territory in southern Lebanon.
CTG recommends that:
Lebanese civilians in southern Lebanon seek immediate shelter due to ongoing and potential further Israeli airstrikes, drone attacks, and shelling.
Lebanese civilians residing close to areas of Lebanon strongly associated with Hezbollah, such as the Beqaa Valley and southern Beirut, seek to move to relatively safer areas.
Israeli civilians living in northern Israel seek immediate shelter due to ongoing and potential Hezbollah airstrikes, drone attacks, and shelling.
Foreigners in Lebanon remain on high alert and contact diplomatic representatives to register their presence in the country and follow all further instructions.
Individuals in these areas pay close attention to updates for possible future airstrikes, drone attacks, and shelling.
Lebanese Authorities gather information to determine possible future airstrikes, drone attacks, and shelling.
CTG assesses that the current threat climate is VERY HIGH due to the risk of tensions in the Middle East escalating, with Israel likely following up with a kinetic ground attack. Hezbollah is almost certainly in preparation for war along with Iran and proxies against Israel. Anti-Israeli views will increase globally as Hezbollah and Israel go to war with each other, likely impacting Jewish populations worldwide. Law enforcement should be on HIGH alert for any potential threats against Jewish religious sites. The propagation of antisemitic content will likely spread online, increasing potential acts of violence against the Jewish community. Lebanese emergency medical services will very likely be overwhelmed with further casualties as the body count rises from aerial strikes. A multi-prong approach utilizing technology and airstrikes will very likely set a precedent for future attacks, and will likely be used to insert ground troops in the targeted area.
Analysis indicates that there is a HIGH PROBABILITY that tensions in the Middle East will increase. Hezbollah is ALMOST CERTAINLY prepared for the scenario where Israel moves ground troops into southern Lebanon. It is VERY LIKELY that Hezbollah will defend Lebanon and try to intensify anti-Israeli sentiments worldwide. Nasrallah’s speech will LIKELY call for a concerted front among the Axis of Resistance, LIKELY involving attacks from Hamas, the Houthis, and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq on Israeli positions. These attacks in southern Lebanon will VERY LIKELY lead to increasing casualties and damage to critical infrastructure with high impact. Israel will VERY LIKELY have a strategic advantage, possibly leveraging Hezbollah's inability to coordinate with its members, LIKELY delaying organized response from Hezbollah.
[1] Isreal-Lebanon Border, generated by a third party database
[2] Hezbollah chief denounces Israeli attacks as warplane sonic booms rattle Beirut, Reuters, September 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-strikes-hit-multiple-targets-lebanon-2024-09-19/
[3] Ibid
[4] Ibid
[5] Ibid
[6] FLASH ALERT: LITHIUM BATTERY EXPLOSIONS IN PAGERS ACROSS LEBANON AND SYRIA; HEZBOLLAH FIGHTERS INJURED, by Oliver Waters, Sara Feletto, Itamar Raizman, Lewis Li, Jigyasa Maloo
[7] Hezbollah leader accuses Israel of targeting '5,000 people in two minutes' as he admits Lebanon blasts are 'unprecedented blow,' Sky News, September 2024, https://news.sky.com/story/hezbollah-leader-accuses-israel-of-targeting-5-000-people-in-two-minutes-as-he-admits-lebanon-blasts-are-unprecedented-blow-13217867
[8] Israeli jets are carrying out huge sonic booms over Beirut, witness, Reuters, September 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-jets-are-carrying-out-huge-sonic-booms-over-beirut-witness-2024-09-19/
[9] Hezbollah leader says exploding device attacks crossed 'all red lines', BBC, September 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c79n1v4d203o
[10] Israeli military says it is striking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, Reuters, September 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-military-says-it-is-striking-hezbollah-targets-lebanon-2024-09-19/
[11] Hezbollah leader says exploding device attacks crossed 'all red lines', BBC, September 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c79n1v4d203o
[12] Iran tells Hezbollah chief Israel will face 'crushing response' after comms attack, Reuters, September 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-tells-hezbollah-chief-israel-will-face-crushing-response-after-comms-attack-2024-09-19/
[13] Security Council: Middle East envoy warns against escalation, highlights continued Israeli settlement activity, UN, September 2024, https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/09/1154536
[14] David Lammy warns UK nationals to leave Lebanon after Israeli air strikes, I News, September 2024, https://inews.co.uk/news/world/explosives-planted-inside-pagers-before-they-reached-hezbollah-3282322?srsltid=AfmBOor6ZPqA8rXXnEBeZiW__3NvMGCm5e9wh05fS3l41pN8hVxlZw4t#entry-3285890
[15] The Axis of Resistance is a phrase used by Iran and Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah and the Houthis to describe their opposition to US action in the Middle East. What is Iran's 'Axis of Resistance'?, Reuters, April 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/what-is-irans-axis-resistance-which-groups-are-involved-2024-01-29/