Amelia Bell, Jacob Robison, Noah Kuttymartin, Yassin Belhaj, Alberto Grosselli, Samuel Pearson, James Raggio, Alice Cian, Clémence Van Damme, Editor; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor
October 2, 2024
Missile Launch[1]
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) is issuing a FLASH ALERT to civilians, humanitarian aid, and non-government organization (NGO) workers within Israel, Iran, and Lebanon, relating to the recent ballistic missile attacks carried out by Iranian forces on Israeli territory.[2] Iran reportedly launched approximately 180 missiles at Israel, the majority of which Israel’s air defenses intercepted. The strike killed one individual in the West Bank, but the extent of the damage is not yet clear.[3] Iran declared that the missile attacks were in response to the Israel Defence Force's (IDF) recent strikes on Lebanon and the Iranian-backed group Hezbollah as well as the killings of Islamist leaders, Ismail Haniyeh, a Hamas top political leader, and Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s chief.[4] The strike, condemned by the US, the EU, and the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres,[5] represents a significant escalation in tensions. IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari has promised consequences “wherever, whenever and however we choose,” sparking fears of an abrupt extension of the conflict in the Middle East.[6]
CTG is on HIGH alert for the Israeli population following multiple Iranian missile attacks targeting Israel. Israel will VERY LIKELY bolster its defenses through the activation and continued monitoring of airspace with the country's Iron Dome system. The IDF will ALMOST CERTAINLY retaliate with missile strikes against Tehran, Iranian military installations, and locations they believe shelter members of Iranian-backed terrorist groups Lebanese Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. The IDF’s retaliation will VERY LIKELY continue striking Lebanese Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, Palestine, and Yemen. Israel’s continued ground invasion and aerial strikes will LIKELY lead to additional isolated attacks being carried out by terrorist groups and their supporters, such as the shooting and knife attack in Tel Aviv. These isolated attacks will VERY LIKELY rapidly increase civilian casualties, LIKELY putting further civilian pressure on elected officials internationally to call for a ceasefire.
Introduction
On October 1, Iran launched around 180 ballistic missiles towards Israel’s territory. The attack occurred shortly before 1945 local time and lasted for about an hour, following a warning issued by the White House earlier in the day. The IDF reported that they intercepted “a large number” of missiles by using their air defense systems as well as US Navy missile defenses, resulting in a few strikes in the central and southern parts of the country.[7] The attack activated sirens across the country, prompting millions of Israelis to seek refuge in bomb shelters. Israel’s national rescue service reported that shrapnel injured two people, and Iranian strikes in the occupied West Bank near Jericho killed a Palestinian as a result of the operation. The investigation is still ongoing.[8]
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed they launched hypersonic missiles for the first time, asserting a 90% hit rate on the intended targets, which CTG could not verify. These strikes mark the second large-scale Iranian missile attack against Israel since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war on October 7, 2023. IRGC officials confirmed in a statement that the attack came in retaliation for the killing of IRGC’s top commander Abbas Nilforoshan, and leaders of Iran-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah’s chief Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reportedly personally commanded the attack a day after Israel announced the beginning of "limited, localized, and targeted ground raids" operations in Lebanon.[9]
The Israel Police reported around 2300 local time that police inspectors and armed civilians killed two terrorists in Tel Aviv. The terrorists launched a shooting and stabbing attack on board carriages of Tel Aviv’s light rail and continued their attack as pedestrians, killing six civilians and injuring an additional nine.[10] Some media reporting indicates between seven or eight killed,[11] and as many as 12 injured.[12] Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) claimed responsibility for the attack.[13]
Analysis
Israel will almost certainly exploit the situation to target strategic military, energy, and nuclear installations in Iran, very likely inflicting heavy damage and weakening Iran’s ability to retaliate. Israel very likely possesses precise intelligence and actionable plans to strike crucial facilities inside Iran, and will likely carry out retaliatory attacks targeted on those facilities soon. The retaliation will likely take various forms, from cyber attacks to drone and missile strikes, but will almost certainly exclude ground operations, which are likely considered too risky. Civilians in the target areas almost certainly face a significant increase in risk as Israel’s reprisal on critical infrastructure will likely inadvertently cause several civilian casualties.
Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities would very likely lead to civilian casualties, and likely cause escalation into continued warfare between the two states. Attacks on the reactor facilities at Isfahan Nuclear Research Center very likely risk a sustained release of radiation into the environment, very likely risking the health and safety of civilians living near the Center. Strikes on Iran’s uranium enrichment plants, such as the Natanz site, very likely risk the dispersal of radioactive material over a large area, depending on local weather conditions, and likely endanger civilians living in the areas around these plants. Iran likely lacks emergency medical supplies to treat radiation exposures on a large scale, and will likely need to acquire iodine tablets from international donors. The Iranian government will very likely view an attack on its nuclear program as a threat to its survival, and respond with expanded ballistic missile strikes.
The increased tensions, hostilities, and retaliatory attacks directed at Israel by Iranian forces and affiliated organizations including Lebanese Hezbollah, will likely lead to additional threat actors in the region such as Houthi and Islamic resistance groups in Iraq and Syria exploiting the situation to attack Israeli targets. The involvement of numerous threat actors will very likely lead to an increase in violent attacks and unconventional war tactics such as mass shootings, suicide attacks, and the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) targeting civilians across the country.
Iran will likely leverage its missile attacks to induce regional proxies, such as Lebanese Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iraqi Shiite militias to continue attacking Israel on multiple fronts with non-conventional techniques. Tehran very likely intended the ballistic missile strikes to emphasize its narrative centering on Iran’s role as leading resistance against Israel. Iran likely intends this narrative to build confidence among its regional proxies in Iranian military capabilities and their commitment to opposing Israel. Building this confidence will enable Iran to ask these proxies to launch attacks against Israel in the future, leading to a continued threat against Israeli military personnel and civilians.
Considering the limited damages and casualties, Iran and its proxies will likely favor different techniques such as suicide attacks, with a roughly even chance of targeting Israeli civilians gathering near shelters. Israeli security forces and civilians concentrating on Iranian attacks have a roughly even chance of overlooking suspicious behaviors, likely creating opportunities for melee attacks by Iranian proxies.
Iranian and Lebanese Hezbollah leaders’ calls to retaliate against ongoing Israeli military operations will likely push extremist individuals and small groups to attempt attacks without direct coordination with Lebanese Hezbollah or Hamas’ leadership, likely increasing the risk of individual actions across Israel. These strategies will likely challenge Israeli preparedness, straining resources as Israeli security forces monitor a greater variety of locations and groups.
Smaller Palestinian groups, such as PIJ, will very likely seek to build their legitimacy among Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank by carrying out attacks. Intense pressure on Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah by the IDF will likely degrade the groups’ capabilities and force them to focus on survival. Lebanese Hezbollah’s and Hamas’ changed focus will likely create room for smaller Palestinian groups to operate and advertise their status and existence through attacks, facilitating their growth. Grievances over Israel’s operations and smaller groups’ growth will likely create a distributed threat landscape against Israel, with smaller groups attacking the state. The absence of a unified actor to negotiate with will very likely inhibit peace processes and ceasefires over the medium term.
Iraqi Islamist Shiite groups such as Kata'ib Hezbollah, after voicing their threat to retaliate against US bases in the region,[14] will likely attack them with missiles, drones, or vehicle-borne explosive devices (VBIEDs). They will likely launch drones against Israel to substantiate their alignment with Iran but are unlikely to target them primarily, as they will likely exploit the tensions to pursue their local objectives in Iraq. Their attacks will likely aim at showing their strength to influence the Iraqi government’s stance on longer-term Iraqi-US military agreements and relationships. This local focus will likely limit their role in the Iranian-led efforts against Israel.
Israel's retaliation will very likely target critical infrastructure, among which the oil infrastructure is likely considered to be a primary target, as long queues at gas stations in Tehran show civilians stocking up in anticipation of major disservices in the near future.[15] Heavy damages to the oil sector will likely inflict a significant blow to Iran's economy adding to international sanctions already in place. There is a roughly even chance that economic and social insecurities, combined with Israel's retaliation, will spark protests in Tehran. Threats to oil infrastructure will very likely increase the price of crude oil in Iran and have a roughly even chance of similarly affecting other countries in the region.
Recommendations
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends that Israeli and Iranian civilians in their respective countries seek immediate shelter due to potential further missile strikes, and ensure they have enough food and other essentials to supply them through periods of shelter.
First responders, humanitarian aid, and NGOs in Israel, Iran, Lebanon, Yemen, and Palestine should exercise extreme caution and implement additional security protocols while assisting the population due to the risk of future attacks.
Hospitals and medical organizations throughout the countries should prepare for significant strain due to a potential surge in injured patients.
Social media users should get news and information on the situation from reliable sources, stay alert for disinformation, and avoid posting or reposting comments that may spread it further.
Civilians should exercise heightened situational awareness in crowded public spaces, report any suspicious activity or individuals to the authorities, and prepare for potential attacks by identifying nearby first aid kits and familiarizing themselves with Home Front Command instructions.
Countries in the Middle East should prepare for potential further conflict escalation and develop contingency plans to secure their citizens where appropriate, including constructing shelters and evacuations of citizens in affected areas.
Western powers and regional actors should intensify diplomatic efforts to prevent the conflict from escalating into a wider regional war.
CTG assesses that the current threat climate is VERY HIGH due to the active reciprocal attacks throughout the Middle East.
Analysis indicates a HIGH PROBABILITY of increased security threats across Israel, Iran, and Lebanon in response to the Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel. Israel’s retaliation will VERY LIKELY target Iran’s critical national infrastructure, LIKELY leading to an Iranian response and further escalation. If Israel targets Iran’s nuclear program, then the conflict will VERY LIKELY escalate. Attacks by Iran and Iranian proxies across Israel will LIKELY increase. Iran and its proxies will VERY LIKELY shift towards more accessible and disruptive attack methods, such as low-tech ground attacks with vehicles and easily accessible component bombs in urban areas, focusing on high-profile events where large gatherings occur. The symbolic significance of the current events is compounded by the proximity to the first anniversary of the October 7 terrorist attacks in Israel, VERY LIKELY increasing the risk of imitation attacks. The exchange of fire will VERY LIKELY have immediate humanitarian consequences, with a high number of civilian casualties.
[1] Missile launch, generated by a third party database
[2] What we know about Iran's missile attack on Israel, BBC, October 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c70w1j0l488o
[3] Israel vows response to Iran missile attack as fears of conflict escalation rise, Reuters, October 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-military-has-begun-limited-raids-against-hezbollah-targets-border-area-2024-09-30/
[4] What we know about Iran's missile attack on Israel, BBC, October 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c70w1j0l488o
[5] @antonioguterres, X, October 1, 2024, https://x.com/antonioguterres/status/1841167889191112704
[6] @IDF, X, October 1, 2024, https://x.com/IDF/status/1841205620709503051
[7] What we know about Iran's missile attack on Israel, BBC, October 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c70w1j0l488o
[8] Iran fires at least 180 missiles into Israel as regionwide conflict grows, AP, October 2024, https://apnews.com/article/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-gaza-news-10-01-2024-eb175dff6e46906caea8b9e43dfbd3da
[9] Iran launches missile attack on Israel, but Israeli military says no casualties reported, CBS News, October 2024, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-iran-us-warns-ballistic-missile-attack-amid-idf-ground-operations-lebanon-hezbollah/
[10] @israelpolice, X, October 1, 2024, https://x.com/israelpolice/status/1841220815175508421
[11]Seven killed in shooting and knife attack in Tel Aviv, BBC, October 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce3wykxzk81o
[12] @nytimes, X, October 1, 2024, https://x.com/nytimes/status/1841232905818837137
[13] Six civilians killed in Tel Aviv shooting and stabbing attack, NBC, October 2024,
[14] US bases would be target if US joins any response against Iran, Iraqi armed groups say, Reuters, October 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-bases-would-be-target-if-us-joins-any-response-against-iran-iraqi-armed-2024-10-01/
[15] Iranians stock up on fuel amid fears of wider conflict, shortages, Reuters, October 2024 https://www.reuters.com/video/watch/idRW863401102024RP1/