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    • Jul 13
    • 6 min read

FLASH ALERT: INCREASED THREAT LEVEL FOR US SECRET SERVICE, WOMEN IN LAW ENFORCEMENT AND SECURITY, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES, ACTIVISTS; EXPECT PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGNS, DOXING AND THREATS

Samuel Pearson, Lewis Li, Nicholas Novak, Weapons/Tactics and OSINT Teams

Elena Alice Rossetti, Brantley Williams, Editor; Evan Beachler, Senior Editor

July 14, 2024


Shooting at Trump Rally July 14, 2024[1] 


The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) is issuing a FLASH ALERT to all US public officials and law enforcement agencies after a shooting during a Trump rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. At around 1815 EST on July 13, 2024, multiple shots were fired, which grazed former President Trump, killed one attendee, and badly injured two others. The US Secret Service (USSS) stated that the former President is safe and doing well. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has taken the lead in the investigation and is working with USSS. Law enforcement believes the shooter fired from the roof of a nearby building. Retaliation from Trump supporters against President Biden is likely due to the spread of disinformation about the shooter's motive and ideology. Far-right extremists will likely threaten and attempt attacks against the leadership of the US Department of Homeland Security and the USSS, given circulating narratives of their responsibility for permitting the attack.


CTG is on HIGH alert for threats against US public officials and security forces in light of an unknown assailant shooting former President Trump at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, 2024.


At 1815 EST, on July 13, 2024, 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks fired multiple shots at a Trump election campaign rally from the roof of a building overlooking the event, striking former President Trump on his upper right ear.[2] USSS subsequently removed Trump from the stage and escorted him to a local hospital to receive medical treatment and evaluation. USSS spokesperson Anthony Guglielmi claimed that a USSS counter sniper neutralized Crooks at the scene, and authorities recovered an AR-15 near his body.[3]  The shooter killed one bystander and critically injured two others.[4] The FBI has since taken the lead in the investigation and is treating it as an assassination attempt.[5] The FBI identified Crooks by DNA as he did not have any ID, and they have not found a motive.[6] The BBC interviewed a witness claiming he saw the shooter crawling on a roof and reported it to the police.[7] Law enforcement reported at 1130 on July 14, 2024, that they discovered bomb-making materials in the shooter’s car.[8]


CTG’s social media intelligence collection at the time of reporting very likely indicates an emerging threat against the USSS. Analyzed against the Pathway to Violence framework, the overall threat is very likely at the first stage, grievance, but some threat actors have likely begun ideation.[9] Early examples of ideation include a 2017 video showing a man holding a rifle while promising allegiance to then-President Trump, resurfacing in the hours after the shooting.[10] Threat actors at the grievance stage will very likely feel the USSS has harmed their interests or values by allowing or orchestrating harm against former President Trump, while those engaging in ideation will very likely consider violent actions in response. High-profile personalities, such as Elon Musk, owner of social media platform X, are amplifying this sense of grievance online, indicating the USSS could have deliberately permitted the attack.[11] Musk’s strong following on social media and respected position in online communities will likely lead to this statement gaining traction and encouraging aggrieved individuals to spread misinformation online. This encouragement will very likely offer moral support for threat actors to advance further along the pathway to violence, and spreading this message online will very likely increase the number of potential threat actors unknown to law enforcement. Threats of violence will likely focus on USSS leadership, as the publicly accountable heads of the agency, but all USSS personnel will very likely face increased threat levels.


Far-right activists have targeted women working for the USSS, questioning their fitness to serve and accusing the USSS of recruiting unsuitable individuals to meet diversity targets. Dinesh D’souza,[12] Matt Walsh,[13] and other far-right activists posted some brief footage with allegations against women assigned to Trump’s security detail, asserting they responded to the attack with confusion and lacked resilience. Far-right and misogynist activists will likely seek to identify and target both agents in the video and the wider group of women serving in the USSS. Far-right activists will almost certainly continue spreading propaganda, seeking to discredit federal diversity initiatives and the concept of women serving in defense and security roles. This propaganda will likely encourage threat actors to intimidate, plan, and attempt attacks against women in the USSS, law enforcement, and security positions, likely increasing the risk of harm for these agents.


Far-right threat actors will very likely target President Biden and the broader Democratic Party as narratives around his involvement continue spreading. Members of far-right communities will very likely use Biden’s previous rhetoric to “put Trump in a bullseye” to justify and motivate direct threats against Biden.[14] Attempted retaliatory attacks with firearms are likely, given the use of a gun in the rally attack and the prevalence of these weapons in the US. The chances of organized violence against the White House or the Biden election campaign will likely increase as polling day approaches and will likely occur if Biden wins.


Left-wing activists have accused Trump of staging the attack for political advantage.[15] These claims will very likely motivate further threats and attempted attacks against Trump through a grievance created by perceived fraud. Potential assailants will likely attempt their attacks, as the nearly successful rally shooting will very likely highlight Trump’s apparent vulnerability.


Right-wing activists and public figures are showing a desire to find and highlight Democratic Party public figures and activists’ instances appearing to encourage violence against Trump. Eric Trump, son of former President Trump, highlighted a clip of a Democratic congressman allegedly calling for Trump’s removal.[16] This trend of seeking public accountability will likely enhance online threats against Democratic Party staff and activists, particularly in the form of doxing against those considered responsible by right-wing activists.[17]


US adversaries such as domestic terrorists, Russia, and China will very likely spread disinformation to incite a greater political divide ahead of the 2024 US federal elections. Intelligence collected via social media indicates rhetoric claiming the shooting was an “inside job,”[18] threats to President Biden[19] and increased political polarization on the internet.[20] Trump supporters will very likely persist in blaming left-wing activists and large media companies for creating the motive and opportunity for the shooting by describing Trump as a threat to democracy.[21] Uncertainty around the attack’s nature will almost certainly lead people to spread their version of events online, likely leading some internet users prone to extremist views down the pathway to violence.

 

  • CTG recommends that USSS review its personnel security policies to ensure that threats against USSS personnel, specifically women agents, can be rapidly reported and investigated.

  • USSS should tighten security measures for their leadership and President Biden, including more agents for protection and proactively looking for and investigating potential threats.

  • CTG recommends that the USSS re-evaluate former President Trump’s security arrangements and the security plan for the rally and address any shortcomings.

  • Democratic and Republican Party politicians and public figures should review their security measures and contact law enforcement promptly for any concerns.

  • Activists from both left and right wings should be mindful of their social media output and avoid spreading rumors about the shooter and the broader incident.


CTG assesses that the current threat climate is HIGH for the USSS, President Biden, former President Trump, and Democratic and Republican Party politicians. This attack VERY LIKELY increases the threat level for US politicians and the USSS. Further attacks will VERY LIKELY cause escalating political violence, endangering election candidates, policymakers, activists, government leaders, and the overall stability of US politics.


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[1] Dalton Riedlbauer via Google Earth

[2] Trump shot in ear at US election campaign rally after major security lapse, Reuters, July 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-shooting-raises-questions-about-security-lapses-2024-07-14/ 

[3] Secret Service faces questions after Trump assassination attempt, BBC, July 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd1d31jeyzlo 

[4] Ibid

[5] Ibid

[6] Ibid

[7] Ibid

[8] Trump rally shooting live updates: FBI identifies suspect in apparent assassination attempt, AP, July 2024, https://apnews.com/live/election-biden-trump-campaign-updates-07-13-2024#00000190-b1c2-d5e2-a7f0-f5fee4250000 

[9] CTG Pathway to Violence by Lydia Baccino via Canva

[14] Defiant Biden tells donors: 'We're done talking about the debate', Politico, July 2024, https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/07/08/congress/defiant-biden-tells-donors-were-done-with-the-debate-00166834 

[17] Doxing is the publishing of an individual’s identity, home address, and location online.

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