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Aug 65 min read

FLASH ALERT: INCREASED THREAT LEVEL FOR UK PUBLIC OFFICIALS, MEMBERS OF MINORITY ETHNIC GROUPS, AND LAW ENFORCEMENT FROM ONGOING RIOTS AND UNREST

Samuel Pearson, Lewis Li, 

Brantley Williams, Cameron Munoz, Anya Golend-Pratt, Editor; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor

August 6, 2024


Ongoing Unrest in the UK[1]


The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) is issuing a FLASH ALERT to English and Northern Irish public officials, members of minority ethnic groups, and law enforcement to be cautious over unrest driven by far-right disinformation and resulting communal tensions. The unrest follows a knife attack on July 29 that killed three girls in Southport. While police detained a suspect, rumors began spreading on social media that the suspect was a recently arrived Muslim asylum-seeker. A judge ruled that the suspect could be named as 17-year-old Axel Muganwa Rudakubana, born in Wales, very likely in an attempt to stop rumors of his heritage and religion. Since the disinformation began spreading, protests erupted nationwide, including rioters storming a hotel housing asylum seekers in Rotherham.[2]


CTG is on HIGH alert for threats against England public officials, law enforcement, and minority ethnic groups following protests sparked by disinformation about a knife attack. Far-right disinformation and propaganda campaigns will VERY LIKELY lead to violence and threats against Muslim and minority communities, risking a cycle of violence, while elected officials face threats over immigration policy and multiculturalism.  


On July 29, 2024, 17-year-old Axel Muganwa Rudakubana killed three girls, aged six, seven, and nine, respectively, and injured eight others at a dance class in Southport, England.[3] Less than two hours after the incident, disinformation began spreading on social media about the identity of the perpetrator, claiming that a Muslim immigrant carried out the attack.[4] The next day, protests erupted when supposed members of the English Defence League[5] attacked local mosques.[6] The protests have spread across England, and erupted in Belfast, Northern Ireland.[7] Local law enforcement has deployed over 4,000 additional officers and has arrested nearly 400 protesters.[8]


British Muslim and minority communities will very likely continue to face derogatory narratives online. Far-right activists will very likely spread narratives centering on the violence of Muslim or minority ethnic groups, which they will very likely falsify or portray misleadingly to gain political and social capital within their movement. Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, a British far-right activist self-styled as Tommy Robinson, was one of several to spread disinformation that an asylum seeker perpetrated the Southport attack.[9] Yaxley-Lennon’s 895,000-strong following on X very likely indicates that this disinformation gains traction, combined with other online activists with shared grievances. Yaxley-Lennon almost certainly uses his social media presence to spread violent narratives of Muslim and minority communities, very likely seeking to exploit unease over terrorism and violence to further an agenda against minorities living in the UK.[10] Several other activists share similar narratives, some more explicitly white nationalist.[11] These activists’ narratives are very likely enabled by X’s apparent tolerance for far-right content and Telegram’s encryption rules, which very likely permit extremists to communicate and legitimize each other’s beliefs without immediate disruption.


Continued online extremist communication and disinformation will very likely lead to persistent threats against Muslim and minority communities, violence against mosques, and hotels reportedly housing asylum seekers awaiting a decision on their residency application.[12] Social media reports of an acid attack against Muslim women in Liverpool likely indicate a gender-based element in ongoing violence.[13] Far-right claims of Muslim violence against white women and children will very likely incite retaliation against women in Muslim and minority communities.[14] 


Violence against Muslim and minority communities will very likely deepen inter-communal tensions in England, and Northern Ireland, leading to further violence without de-escalatory intervention. A crowd, apparently comprising British-Asian individuals, gathered in Birmingham, England, on August 5, responding to rumors that a far-right group’s arrival and possible violence against minority groups was imminent, according to the local Member of Parliament (MP).[15] One crowd member pursued a journalist and camera crew, obliging them to cease broadcasting and damaging their vehicle.[16] Group mobilization of the above crowd and their aggression against perceived outsiders likely suggest heightened threat perceptions among British minority communities and limited trust in law enforcement capacity or will to protect them. Far-right activists will almost certainly exploit instances of minority community mobilization as evidence of an organized threat against British society,  likely leading to a cycle of more far-right violence and further community mobilization.


British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and MPs will very likely face a heightened threat environment. Far-right activist Lawrence Fox accused Starmer of betraying his country and taking the side of alleged child-rapist immigrants, declaring “it’s war,” nominally over the Prime Minister’s condemnation of unrest.[17] 72,000 X accounts liked the post, while 4.7 million viewed it in 33 hours, suggesting the message very likely reached interested audiences.[18] These declarations and inflammatory accusations will very likely motivate additional threats against the safety of the Prime Minister, given the prevalence of disorder will likely offer potential threat actors feelings of impunity. Threats against MPs who condemned the violence and support policies favorable to immigration and multiculturalism will very likely occur, given previous attacks on MPs and their exposed position in constituency offices spread out across the UK.  


  • The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends MPs, mosques, and hotels consult their local police services regarding security arrangements and remain vigilant.

  • MPs and their staff should report any threats or suspicious activity, such as individuals loitering outside their place of work, taking pictures of staff or the premises, to the police at 999 (in an emergency) or 112.

  • Women in British Muslim and minority communities should ensure they have emergency contacts and contingency plans available in case of imminent threats.

  • Police services should focus on identifying rioters’ communication methods for predictive intelligence analysis to pre-empt additional unrest.

  • The UK government should engage with their US counterparts to secure X and Telegram’s support for a counter-extremism strategy.

  • Community leaders from all parts of British society should continue to disavow political violence and post examples of mutual tolerance and community spirit on social media to counter extremist propaganda.  


CTG assesses that the threat level is HIGH, given extensive far-right disinformation campaigns against Muslim and minority ethnic groups and previous violence against MPs and other public officials. Heightened threats will likely lead to further community tensions and mobilization, which could lead to a cycle of violence without de-escalation efforts from law enforcement and community leaders. Police services will very likely seek to improve their intelligence collection to pre-empt far-right violence, while the British government will almost certainly press social media platforms to do more to remove extremist content. Prime Minister Starmer, and MPs and their staff, will very likely face more threats to their safety over their immigration policy and support for multiculturalism. Previous attacks on MPs included the 2016 assassination of Jo Cox MP, who was shot and stabbed by a man shouting far-right slogans. Other previous right-wing violence included a 2017 ramming attack outside of Finsbury Park mosque, London.


Analysis indicates that there is a HIGH PROBABILITY that further violence is VERY LIKELY. Far-right activists will VERY LIKELY continue disseminating disinformation and propaganda to advance their political objectives. Prime Minister Starmer and MPs will VERY LIKELY face threats while unrest continues, as far-right propaganda motivates extremist individuals and the riots present these actors with perceived opportunities. Far-right extremists will ALMOST CERTAINLY keep using online spaces to discuss their ideas, legitimize them, and organize demonstrations, VERY LIKELY leading to violence. Muslims and minority communities will VERY LIKELY face persistent derogatory narratives, threats of harm, and physical violence.

 

[1] Demonstration, generated by a third party database

[2] What’s behind the anti-immigrant violence that has exploded across Britain? Here’s a look, AP, August 2024, https://apnews.com/article/britain-riots-unrest-social-media-misinformation-attack-5824d3136675e10d6a25c9e17287c994 

[3] Ibid

[4] Ibid

[5] The English Defence League (EDL), founded in 2009, is a far-right group led by Tommy Robinson, promoting anti-Muslim sentiments and opposing immigration.

[6] What’s behind the anti-immigrant violence that has exploded across Britain? Here’s a look, AP, August 2024, https://apnews.com/article/britain-riots-unrest-social-media-misinformation-attack-5824d3136675e10d6a25c9e17287c994 

[7] Britain’s Weekend of Violence: What We Know, New York Times, August 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/05/world/europe/uk-riots-protests.html 

[8] Ibid

[10] @TRobinsonNewEra, X, https://x.com/TRobinsonNewEra 

[12] Starmer condemns 'far-right thuggery' on UK streets and says those involved 'will regret it', BBC, August 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c0jqjxe8d1yt 

[13] CTG Threat Hunter on Instagram

[14] CTG Threat Hunter on X

[15] @jessphillips, X, August 5, 2024, https://x.com/jessphillips/status/1820501007102791726 

[18] Ibid

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