Lewis Li, Mercedes Scheible, Sabrina Bernardo, Jigyasa Maloo, NORTHCOM
Sakura Morales, Alice Cian, James Raggio Editors; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor
September 7, 2024
Synagogue[1]
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) is issuing a FLASH ALERT to all law enforcement (LE) agencies and Jewish centers in Western countries after the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) arrested a Pakistani citizen near the US-Canadian border for planning an attack on a Jewish center in New York City (NYC). He aimed to attack on the anniversary of the October 7 Hamas attack in Israel, intending to kill Jewish people in the name of ISIS. Khan had been communicating with undercover LE officers, discussing plans to form an ISIS cell in the US and target Jewish Chabad centers. He now faces extradition to the US, where he could receive up to 20 years in prison.[2]
CTG is on HIGH alert for threats against Jewish centers and major cities with high Jewish populations after Canadian LE arrested a Pakistani national for planning a terrorist attack on Jewish centers in Brooklyn, New York. The arrest very LIKELY signals an increased threat from extremist individuals and terrorist groups targeting Jewish communities around the October 7 anniversary. Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Hamas are LIKELY a motivating factor for terrorist groups and extremist individuals planning copycat or coordinated attacks, especially on symbolic dates like Yom Kippur. Targets ALMOST CERTAINLY include Jewish centers and public gatherings and will LIKELY increase fear in Jewish communities. Social media will VERY LIKELY spread hate speech and extremist propaganda, contributing to the threat. Law enforcement will LIKELY heighten surveillance and security at vulnerable locations and will LIKELY focus on monitoring online platforms for extremist activity.
On September 4, 2024, RCMP arrested Muhammad Shahzeb Khan, a 20-year-old Pakistani national residing in Canada near Ormstown, Quebec, for plotting a mass shooting at a Jewish center in Brooklyn, New York.[3] He intended to attack on October 7, 2024, the one-year anniversary of the October 7 Hamas attacks in Israel.[4] Khan had been openly supporting ISIS and posting propaganda online since November 2023.[5] He discussed his plans for the attack with undercover LE officers, which included attempting to cross the US-Canadian border using three vehicles and the help of a human smuggler.[6] Khans intended to “slaughter” as many Jewish people as possible using AR-style rifles, specifically targeting Jewish centers in New York.[7] The US Department of Justice (DOJ) is seeking extradition, while Khan is scheduled to appear in the Supreme Court of Justice in Montreal on September 13.[8] Although LE agencies said the plot was aspirational and not fully operational, NYPD is implementing extra security measures, such as increased patrols in Jewish neighborhoods.[9] The FBI is continuing its investigation into his actions.[10]
The arrest very likely indicates that the threat from individuals and terrorist organizations targeting Jewish communities in the wake of the October 7 anniversary is high. It very likely underlines that global events, such as the geopolitical tensions between Israel and Hamas, are inspiring threat actors to conduct copycat or coordinated attacks, likely to demonstrate support for the Palestinian cause. Increasing anti-semitism in the US and Europe will very likely amplify the threat of attacks on symbolic dates, including the Jewish festival of Yom Kippur on October 11 and 12. Targets very likely include Jewish centers, cultural institutions, synagogues, and public gatherings to maximize the visibility and impact of the attacks, generating fear and increasing casualties. This will likely lead Jewish community members to avoid religious services and public gatherings out of fear of being targeted.
Social media platforms will very likely witness an increase in hate speeches, anti-semitic rhetoric, propaganda videos, and memes in the lead-up to the October 7 anniversary. The threat to Jewish organizations and facilities will likely increase as the anniversary date approaches and will likely involve swatting incidents, false bomb threats, phishing emails, and ransomware attacks. Social media algorithms will likely personalize suggested content for users engaging with extreme views, likely suggesting conspiracy theories based on historical and contemporary themes and events, likely reinforcing their pre-existing biases. Extremist groups and individuals will very likely exploit these narratives to recruit sympathizers and encourage violence. Encrypted messages and private chat rooms will very likely be a fertile space for extremist content, with a roughly even chance of violent discourses translating into acts of violence. The lack of content moderation on Telegram and fringe platforms such as Gab, 4chan, and 8chan will likely allow the spread of extremist content across these social media platforms, very likely increasing disinformation.
Enhanced surveillance and increased security measures will likely be necessary to mitigate incoming threats effectively. LE will likely be on heightened alert and will very likely enhance resources to monitor threat actors. Locations such as Jewish centers, cultural institutions, and synagogues, vulnerable to potential attacks, will likely experience an increase in police deployment. Monitoring of social media platforms will very likely increase to identify suspicious activities to detect early warning signs. It will likely involve monitoring the dissemination of anti-semitic narratives across platforms, communication among like-minded allegedly radicalized individuals, and potential threat actors’ recruitment efforts.
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends US LE increase patrols and surveillance around Jewish institutions and public events to respond to potential attacks.
CTG recommends that Jewish centers, synagogues, and public gatherings increase their security measures, personnel, and access controls in the week of October 7 and Yom Kippur.
Jewish centers across Western countries should review and update their emergency response plans to address potential threats and attacks on symbolic dates, such as October 7, 11, and 12.
CTG recommends US LE coordinate with national intelligence, local police, and international counterterrorism units to respond to potential attacks.
CTG recommends that Jewish institutions limit access to their facilities to authorized individuals only and conduct regular security checks.
CTG recommends US LE cooperate with cybersecurity experts to increase responses to online threats or extremism.
CTG recommends that social media companies strengthen their algorithms to increase their detection of extremist content. LE should analyze social media trends to identify potential emerging threats and attacks. CTG recommends the monitoring of social media and online platforms by LE for announcements regarding possible events around October 7, such as gatherings to honor victims of the Middle East Conflict and Hamas hostages, and for evidence of potential radicalization, planned attacks, hate speech, and extremist and terrorist organizations’ recruitment.
CTG assesses that the current threat climate is HIGH due to the high risk for Jewish communities around October 7, 11, and 12. The likely threats are the increase of hate speech on social media, lone actors and terrorist organizations targeting Jewish communities, an increase of propaganda, radicalization, recruitment for terrorist organizations, and similar plans of attack. While Jewish communities will almost certainly be the most affected, the threats will likely impact other communities in the same areas. The November 23 Jerusalem Bombings, discussed in Khan’s chat rooms, signal a potential date that threat actors will likely use to plan an attack against the Jewish community. Analyzing and understanding these threats will very likely be critical for authorities to improve measures that likely prevent and predict future attacks.
Analyses indicate a HIGH PROBABILITY of increased threats against Jewish communities around symbolic dates, including October 7, 11, and 12, LIKELY increased by geopolitical tensions between Israel and Hamas. These threats will LIKELY come from extremist individuals or terrorist groups looking to conduct attacks to show solidarity for the Palestinian cause. Hate speech, propaganda, and recruitment for extremist organizations will VERY LIKELY increase on social media platforms. Jewish institutions and law enforcement will VERY LIKELY face potential physical or cyberattacks and should enhance security measures and monitor social media for indications of extremist activity. Unlock the Power of Knowledge with The Counter Threat Center! Elevate your threat detection capabilities with critical intelligence on global threats. Join us for a free trial and equip yourself to safeguard those you've sworn to protect. Click here to learn more: https://www.counterthreatcenter.com/subscriptions
[1] Synagogue, generated by a third party database
[2] Pakistani National Charged for Plotting Terrorist Attack in New York City in Support of ISIS, US Department of Justice, September 2024, https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/pakistani-national-charged-plotting-terrorist-attack-new-york-city-support-isis-0
[3] Pakistani National Charged for Plotting Terrorist Attack in New York City in Support of ISIS, US Department of Justice, September 2024, https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/pakistani-national-charged-plotting-terrorist-attack-new-york-city-support-isis-0
[4] Ibid
[5] Ibid
[6] Ibid
[7] Ibid
[8] Male wanted in the US arrested in Ormstown, Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP), September 2024, https://www.rcmp-grc.gc.ca/en/news/2024/male-wanted-the-arrested-ormstown
[9] 20-year-old man arrested in Canada for alleged ISIS-inspired plot to attack Jewish people in NYC, ABC News, September 2024, https://abc7ny.com/isis-terror-plot-nyc-terrorism/15274840/
[10] Pakistani National Charged for Plotting Terrorist Attack in New York City in Support of ISIS, US Department of Justice, September 2024, https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/pakistani-national-charged-plotting-terrorist-attack-new-york-city-support-isis-0