Alberto Grosselli, Joseph Everest, Camilla Raffaelli, EUCOM
Finley Thomas, Elena Alice Rossetti, Editor; Evan Beachler, Senior Editor
October 28, 2024
Absentee Ballot[1]
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) is issuing a FLASH ALERT to the Georgian population, Georgian pro-EU politicians, journalists, and human rights activists due to purported Russian electoral interference in Georgia. Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili refused to recognize the election’s results, calling on Georgians to protest the “total falsification” of the votes, the presence of Russian propaganda, and the “probable” involvement of Russian security services during the election cycle.[2] The EU and the US have called for an investigation into the election process in Georgia to determine if there were any electoral violations, echoing OSCE’s independent observers’ claims that irregularities favoring the ruling “Georgian Dream” party marked the election.[3] Russia issued a statement before the election results were published, saying that they had not interfered in the process and that Western actors were influencing the results.[4] The election implies an “existential choice” between increasing Georgian integration with the EU and a return to the Russian sphere of influence, and witnessed threats to democracy, such as Bidzina Ivanishvili, founder of the political party Georgian Dream, pledging to ban the pro-Western opposition.[5] Protests have already begun in Tbilisi about the election results, called by Zourabichvili.[6]
CTG is on HIGH alert for the Georgian population and pro-Europe political activists following the mounting tensions surrounding the recent parliamentary elections. The allegations of Russian interference and Peskov’s response will VERY LIKELY indicate a rise in political tensions between those in support and opposition of Georgian Dream. Pro-Europe protestors will VERY LIKELY face Russian-backed counter-protestors, and the two groups will LIKELY clash, requiring the intervention of the police whose independence will LIKELY be eroded with Georgian Dream’s ascension to power. The pro-Russian Georgian Dream victory will VERY LIKELY lead to a crackdown on opposition figures such as pro-Europe politicians, journalists, and human rights activists, LIKELY drafting or reframing legislation to target these groups.
Introduction
After Georgian Dream’s electoral win with 54% of the vote share, Georgian opposition parties, including the current President Salome Zourabichvili, have urged Western nations to support protests against official election results.[7] Zourabichvili affirmed that the pro-Russian party Georgian Dream was working closely with Russia, including using Russian security forces.[8] The Kremlin stated before the vote that they had not interfered in the election in any way and that Western actors were trying to influence the vote. The EU and the US have called for an investigation into any violations of the electoral process.[9] EU High Representative Josep Borrell and the European Commission allege a climate of fear and intimidation around the voting process, influencing voters’ choices.[10]
Several European and Western countries condemned the lack of freedom in the elections, and senior representatives of Poland, Latvia, and Estonia acknowledged the voting irregularities and announced their support for the Georgian population and for their willingness to integrate further into Europe.[11] A joint statement co-signed by 13 European countries reiterated the condemnation of the current situation in Georgia, calling the voting irregularities a “betrayal of the Georgian people’s legitimate European aspiration.”[12] Péter Szijjártó, the Foreign Minister of Hungary, Russia’s ally, instead welcomed the result, congratulating Georgian Dream and offering Hungarian support in their “European integration efforts,”[13] while Hungarian President Viktor Orban visited the country to legitimize the election’s result, prompting Borrell to say that Orban “does not represent the European Union.”[14]
Analysis
Russia will very likely continue pre-bunking potential criticism regarding their actions, framing it as misinformation or propaganda. This pre-bunking tactic will likely thwart further attempts by Georgian authorities or external bodies to cast doubt over the legitimacy of the Georgian elections, as Russian citizens and pro-Russian individuals and organizations in Georgia will very likely take Russia’s preemptive words as reinforcements for their preexisting anti-EU biases. This move will likely prevent support for a repeat of the elections from spreading, very likely hindering possible future attempts by the Georgian opposition parties, such as the United National Movement, to request a new election.
Pro-democracy protests in the capital are likely to become violent if counter-protesters arrive. The police will likely use aggressive tactics, such as physical force and arrests, very likely targeting journalists who will very likely continue to question the election results. Violence during the protest will likely provide justification for Georgian Dream to draft laws that curb protests and dissent, further eroding rights, such as freedom of expression. Georgian Dream will likely use the Foreign Agents Act to persecute and detain individuals that they believe pose a threat to the incumbent government.
The protests will very likely draw international attention, likely enabling foreign entities like the EU to pressure Georgia into releasing information about the voting process’ fairness. It is unlikely that the protests alone will compel Georgian Dream to provide evidence of a fair election without foreign pressure. It is very likely that Russia will support the current electoral results, making it very unlikely that internal pressure from citizens and advocacy groups will succeed without foreign support.
Western actors, such as the EU and the US, will very likely continue to pressure Georgia to release evidence of electoral fairness, likely causing diplomatic tension with both Georgian Dream and Russia. Continued accusations of Russian involvement in the elections will likely further strain Russo-Western relations, likely polarizing those who believe the Russian metanarrative and those who support the EU and other Western powers. Continued pressure and accusations towards Georgian Dream will likely push them diplomatically closer to Russia and further from Europe.
Recommendations
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends that Georgian residents pay close attention to authorities' updates, news reports, and social media posts on possible riots and protests and report incidents of violence to the unified 112 emergency number.
Civilians should exercise heightened situational awareness and avoid areas where demonstrations occur to reduce the risk of involvement in violent protests and the police response.
Civilians should remain vigilant against political extremists who may exploit the situation by potentially planning attacks in crowded places.
Social media users should seek reliable news and information updates from trustworthy sources, stay alert for disinformation, and avoid spreading incorrect or biased information.
Journalists and human rights activists should be wary of potential clampdowns on freedom of speech, potential arrests, and use of the foreign agents act by Georgian Dream.
International election observers, such as Freedom House and International IDEA, should ensure their election monitoring reports are completed in a timely manner and include all relevant details to improve electoral transparency.
CTG assesses that the current threat risk is HIGH due to the increasing tensions and political polarization surrounding the election’s result. The opposition has called for its supporters to take to the streets to protest the election integrity violation, and protests will likely turn violent, featuring clashes between pro-EU and pro-Russia demonstrators and involving the police.
Analysis indicates that there is a HIGH PROBABILITY of an increase in violence against protestors and opposition party members and figures as the tensions on the legitimacy of the election’s result heat up. The Georgian government will VERY LIKELY order the police to disperse anti-government protests, and it is LIKELY that this will lead to acts of violence, arrests, and violation of the political rights of pro-EU protestors. Russia will VERY LIKELY continue to show its support to Georgian Dream in an attempt to increase its political influence in the country and hinder Georgia’s attempts to join the EU. European countries will ALMOST CERTAINLY reaffirm their condemnation of the lack of political transparency, VERY LIKELY requesting an explanation from the government in the context of the EU accession path negotiations, and the violation of integrity standards will ALMOST CERTAINLY slow the process down.
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[1] Absentee Ballot by Spc. Carlynn Knaak licensed under Public Domain (The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement)
[2] Georgia’s president accuses Russia of election meddling and urges the West to back protests, AP, October 2024, https://apnews.com/article/georgia-election-russia-european-union-protests-f6667dd64b537bd2082bfc5396f4a955
[3] Georgia Parliamentary Elections, US Department of State, October 2024,
[4] Georgia election: Russia denies meddling, EU urges probe, DW, October 2024, https://www.dw.com/en/georgia-election-russia-denies-meddling-eu-urges-probe/a-70618416
[5] Georgia's ruling party leads key election race which could decide role in Europe, Sky News, October 2024, https://news.sky.com/story/georgias-ruling-party-leads-crucial-election-race-which-could-decide-the-countrys-role-in-europe-13241816
[6] 'They Stole Your Vote,' Georgian President Says, As Tens Of Thousands Rally To Protest Elections, RFE/RL, October 2024, https://www.rferl.org/a/georgia-election-protests-russia-eu/33176435.html
[7] Georgia’s president accuses Russia of election meddling and urges the West to back protests, AP, October 2024, https://apnews.com/article/georgia-election-russia-european-union-protests-f6667dd64b537bd2082bfc5396f4a955
[8] Ibid
[9] Russia says attempts are being made to destabilise Georgia after vote, Reuters, October 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-attempts-are-being-made-destabilise-georgia-after-vote-2024-10-28/
[10] Georgia: Joint Statement by the High Representative Josep Borrell and the European Commission on the Parliamentary elections, EEAS, October 2024, https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/georgia-joint-statement-high-representative-josep-borrell-and-european-commission-parliamentary_en
[11] How The World Sees The Disputed Georgian Elections, RFE/RL, October 2024, https://www.rferl.org/a/georgia-elections-global-reaction-russia-eu/33175371.html
[12] Joint Statement of EU ministers on the elections in Georgia, Auswaertiges Amt, October 2024, https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/elections-georgia/2681910
[13] Szijjártó Péter, Facebook, October 2024, https://www.facebook.com/szijjarto.peter.official/posts/pfbid0FMXEKFLh8SRVxedG7a5cHxCzdgkiuQZDdJEEgB5BZc74udy7FPWHMsBFo5ZMwHG8l (Translated by Evan Beachler)
[14]Georgia: Hungary's Orban arrives as mass protests begin, DW, October 2024, https://www.dw.com/en/georgia-hungarys-orban-arrives-as-mass-protests-begin/a-70622619