Agathe Labadi, Giorgia Cito, Iris Hautaniemi Forsberg, Ludovica Leccese, Nicholas Novak, Prim Thanchanok Kanlayanarak, Victoire Tissinié, Zara Price, Samuel Pearson Janthe Van Schaik PACOM & Weapons/Tactics Team
Brantley Williams, Evan Beachler, Cameron Munoz, Editor; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor
July 15, 2024
China Naval Forces[1]
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) is issuing a FLASH ALERT to US and NATO military personnel regarding the joint Chinese-Russian naval drills at a military port off the coast of Zhanjiang, China, in the Indo-Pacific. These exercises began a few days after NATO allies labeled Beijing a “decisive enabler” of the war in Ukraine.[2] The Chinese defense ministry stated that the joint exercises would involve patrolling the western and northern Pacific Ocean, emphasizing that these operations are unrelated to current international and regional tensions and do not target any third party.[3] The drills showcase the two countries' naval capabilities in handling security threats and maintaining global and regional security and stability, including anti-missile exercises, sea strikes, and air defense, according to Chinese state media.[4] This Flash Alert on Chinese-Russian naval drills is critical given the heightened geopolitical tensions stemming from these exercises. The July 10 NATO communiqué underscores growing concerns over China's role in supporting Russia amidst the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.[5] As these drills coincide with recent encounters between Chinese military ships and a US Coast Guard cutter in the Bering Sea, the situation underscores a significant escalation in military posturing.[6]
CTG is on HIGH alert for increased regional tensions and potential unwanted incidents between the Sino-Russian block and the US-led coalition following China and Russia's joint naval exercise in southern China, shortly after NATO allies designated Beijing as a significant contributor to the war in Ukraine. Russia will LIKELY take advantage of further tensions between China and NATO members to increase economic, military, and political ties with China to bypass the Western sanctions and gain support for its war in Ukraine. Direct Chinese support through technology, weapons, and advanced materials to Russia will LIKELY lead Russia to offset NATO assistance to Ukraine. Further Sino-Russian military cooperation and joint operations in the South China Sea will LIKELY increase regional tensions and limit the US and its allies' response by increasing vessel presence and militarized zones.
China and Russia commenced joint naval drills on July 14, 2024, at a military port in Zhanjiang, Guangdong Province, southern China. This joint exercise occurred soon after NATO's Washington summit, where NATO members labeled Beijing a "decisive enabler" of Russia's war in Ukraine. The drills, titled “Maritime Cooperation - 2024,” involve two Russian Steregushchiy-class corvettes, Gromky and Rezky, and are set to continue until mid-July.[7] Chinese state broadcaster CCTV claimed that the joint operations demonstrated anti-missile exercises, sea strikes, and air defense maneuvers to showcase combined naval capabilities. [8]
The joint drills come at a time of heightened scrutiny of China's role in global security dynamics, particularly concerning the conflict in Ukraine. In response to NATO's communiqué, China has emphasized the exercises are not directed against any third party and are unrelated to current international or regional situations.[9] The Chinese and Russian naval forces have conducted on-map military simulations and tactical coordination exercises following the opening ceremony, signaling high preparedness and coordination. Further developments are expected as these drills continue, potentially influencing the broader geopolitical landscape and the strategic calculations of regional states. The ongoing drills highlight the deepening military collaboration between China and Russia, a partnership that continues to challenge the strategic interests of Western alliances.
The joint drills between China and Russia signal a deepening of military ties; the growing cooperation strengthened their bilateral military capabilities and serves as a counterbalance to NATO’s influence, particularly in light of recent geopolitical tensions. The likelihood of continued and increased cooperation between China and Russia is almost certain, as both share common strategic goals and mutual interests in countering Western hegemony. This cooperation between both countries is likely to manifest into more frequent and advanced joint military operations, intelligence sharing, and coordinated military and political strategies, likely challenging the US and its Australian, British, Indian, Japanese, and Korean allies’ strategic interests and operational capabilities.
The Chinese and Russian naval drills threaten regional stability, especially in the highly contested South China Sea. The exercises, involving sophisticated anti-missiles, sea strikes, and air defense maneuvers, demonstrate the advanced capabilities of China and Russia's naval forces. This display of military power is likely to heighten tensions with neighboring countries, many of which have territorial disputes with China. The presence of well-equipped naval forces from both China and Russia has a roughly even chance of triggering a security dilemma, prompting regional actors to enhance their military capabilities or seek closer security ties with external powers like the US and NATO, likely intensifying regional military competition.
Continuous Chinese and Russian joint naval exercises will very likely significantly transform the military capabilities of both countries through the development of new military tactics and technologies. The deepened military cooperation between China and Russia will very likely increase their armed forces' operational efficiency and strategic position globally. The drills will likely furnish big data to develop new, more sophisticated algorithms for the command and control, increasing the efficiency. Chinese and Russian deepened military cooperation is also very likely to facilitate technological exchange between both countries, likely including air defense systems, stealth technologies, Russian jet engines for China and advanced radars.
The NATO communiqué will likely increase the political and strategic tensions between China, the US, and its allies, likely spurring China to strengthen its ties with close partners, such as Russia.[10] Russia will very likely take advantage of China’s negative response to NATO’s communique to increase trade in war materials with China, including microelectronics, components for drones, and raw materials. Tensions between China and NATO will very likely impact economic, diplomatic, military, and political ties, likely worsening the regional instability in the China South Sea and Ukraine. Russian oil and gas exports to China are very likely counterbalancing European and US sanctions on the Kremlin. NATO members will likely restrain investments in China but will unlikely impose further sanctions against China, likely seeking to mitigate economic harms and manage escalation.
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends increasing real-time intelligence and surveillance operations in the Indo-Pacific to closely monitor the movements and activities of Chinese and Russian naval forces; this includes deploying additional reconnaissance assets such as UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) and utilizing satellite imagery for intelligence gathering.
CTG recommends that NATO allies and regional partners such as Japan and South Korea establish and maintain robust communication channels to ensure rapid information sharing and coordinated responses to emerging threats.
NATO should deploy additional naval assets to strategically important areas to deter any potential aggressive actions and ensure the safety of international waters. These deployments should include readying quick response teams to address any immediate threats.
CTG recommends that the US and its allies strengthen strategic partnerships and alliances in the Indo-Pacific region to counterbalance the influence of China and Russia, deepening defense cooperation with countries like Japan, South Korea, and Australia.
Analysis indicates a HIGH PROBABILITY that China and Russian joint naval drills signal strengthened bilateral military capabilities to counterbalance NATO’s influence following the recent tensions. This cooperation will LIKELY increase advanced joint military operations and intelligence sharing between China and Russia, LIKELY challenging NATO’s strategic interests and capabilities and reshaping regional security dynamics in the South China Sea. This display of military capabilities will LIKELY increase tensions related to territorial disputes between China and neighboring countries, especially in the South China Sea. Continuous China and Russia joint naval drills will VERY LIKELY strengthen military cooperation and LIKELY increase their operational command and control response.
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[1] China naval forces at a military port in southern China, generated by a third party image database (created by AI)
[2] China, Russia start joint naval drills, days after NATO allies called Beijing a Ukraine war enabler, AP News, July 2024, https://apnews.com/article/china-russia-joint-naval-drills-nato-ukraine-08590a566d76ae1ddc47dde7cea8ad1a
[3] Ibid.
[4] Ibid.
[5] Washington Summit Declaration, NATO, July 2024, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_227678.htm
[6] Ibid.
[7] China, Russia start joint naval drills, days after NATO allies called Beijing a Ukraine war enabler, AP News, July 2024, https://apnews.com/article/china-russia-joint-naval-drills-nato-ukraine-08590a566d76ae1ddc47dde7cea8ad1a
[8] China, Russia start joint naval drills, days after NATO allies called Beijing a Ukraine war enabler, AP News, July 2024, https://apnews.com/article/china-russia-joint-naval-drills-nato-ukraine-08590a566d76ae1ddc47dde7cea8ad1a
[9] China, Russia start joint naval drills, days after NATO allies called Beijing a Ukraine war enabler, AP News, July 2024, https://apnews.com/article/china-russia-joint-naval-drills-nato-ukraine-08590a566d76ae1ddc47dde7cea8ad1a
[10] Washington Summit Declaration, NATO, July 2024, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_227678.htm