Nicholas Novak, Yassin Belhaj, Camilla Raffaelli, Janthe Van Schaik, Itamar Raizman, Samuel Pearson, Noah Kuttymartin NORTHCOM
Brantley Williams, Editor; Evan Beachler, Senior Editor
November 8, 2024
Washington Monument[1]
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) is issuing a FLASH ALERT to elected officials, state and federal level government agencies, law enforcement, security professionals, and protestors following a series of social media posts on X claiming President-elect Donald Trump cheated to win the presidential election, and an Aryan Freedom Network (AFN) Telegram threat to anti-Trump protestors. The X posts claim that out of 20 million uncounted ballots, 17 million are Democrat, leading to a Trump victory, suggesting that election authorities purposely ignored the uncounted votes.[2] There are also claims of votes not being counted because of discrepancies in signatures and claiming to have evidence that President-elect Trump collaborated with Elon Musk and Russia to rig the election.[3] The AFN Telegram channel posted threats claiming to be preparing to counter anti-Trump protests in America.[4]
CTG is on HIGH alert for threats against republican voters, President-elect Donald Trump, and possible protests and counter-protests regarding the presidential election results. Posts claiming a rigged election will VERY LIKELY incite anti-Trump protests, with extremist groups VERY LIKELY exploiting this misinformation to incite violence. Far-right extremists will VERY LIKELY attend the protests to take advantage of the situation to reinforce their cause.
Introduction
In a 24-post thread published on November 6, an X user claimed that Donald Trump cheated to win the presidency.[5] The thread, which aimed to demonstrate that Trump rigged the elections, was viewed by 23.7 million people and directed users to similar content.[6] Community notes beneath the posts clarified context and refuted information, while most of the sources in this thread came from other X accounts making similar claims.
The same user asserted that 20 million votes, 17 million of which favored the Democrats, were not counted during the election process.[7] The X thread included a series of images shared by users, purportedly showing documents of rejected ballots and ballot boxes burned by arsonists in Georgia.[8] It questioned why the Associated Press declared Trump’s victory so early despite all votes not being counted. The news outlet clarified that they consider multiple factors before declaring outcomes but only make calls when counting enough votes.[9]
The account claims that Trump conspired with Elon Musk and Russia to win the election, alleging that Musk purchased votes from millions of voters and that Russia interfered by orchestrating a series of fake bomb threats to disrupt the electoral process. It noted the support for Trump from prominent Russian politician Dmitry Medvedev, referencing a tweet targeting Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.
Peaceful anti-Trump protests have reportedly occurred in Philadelphia, where Harris secured the majority of votes, and in Chicago, organized by pro-Palestinian advocacy groups in response to the election results.[10] Far-right extremists have indicated intent to counter perceived threats against the incoming Trump administration. One telegram channel affiliated with the Neo-Nazi movement stated their desire to organize and confront “Antifa Commie Scum.”[11]
Analysis
Misinformation is very likely to intensify on social media platforms like X and Telegram, resulting in claims of election fraud and calls to reverse the outcome of the elections. The spreading of election rigging narratives is likely aimed at eroding trust in the democratic process, likely leading to some people refusing to acknowledge the results, generating anxiety within the population. Misinformation will likely legitimize collective actions such as anti-Trump protests and create a roughly even chance of civil unrest in urban centers. Protests will likely occur at election offices where vote certification occurs, as supporters will likely call for a recount of the ballots and an investigation into election fraud claims. Extremist far-left groups like Antifa will very likely attend protests and take advantage of voters’ frustrations to recruit members by inflating fears of repression under Trump’s mandate.
Perceptions of fraud or cheating enabling Trump’s victory will likely continue inspiring alienated supporters of left-wing causes to acquire firearms, given widespread anxieties about an emboldened far-right and potential Trump administration policies. Far-right extremists will likely use emerging trends of increasing gun ownership and left-wing activism to argue that they face increased threats from armed left-wing extremists, motivating a more aggressive posture from radical groups and individuals. Perceptions that Trump favors far-right interests will likely lower psychological barriers to action amongst extremist groups, leading to radicalization. These perceptions of a favorable administration and an increased far-left threat will likely increase the risk of violence from far-right groups and affiliated lone actors.
Both far-left and far-right extremists will likely look for confrontations at opposing protests. Both sides will very likely seek to portray the other as having begun the violence and claim victory in any clashes. Extremists will very likely spread posting of selected media such as photos or video clips, likely omitting context, as propaganda tactics intending to build widespread sympathy and damage their opponents’ public image. Both sides will likely prepare for violence by bringing blunt instruments, such as baseball bats, frozen water bottles, or discarded bricks, with a roughly even chance that protesters bring Molotov cocktails or firearms, which is likely to result in clashes with law enforcement. Each group is very likely to claim victimhood from police brutality due to their political ideals, aiming to portray themselves as persecuted to gain public support and sympathy.
Recommendations
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends that electoral offices provide regular updates to counter-narratives about election rigging.
Social media users are encouraged to follow information from trusted sources on the election process and to question the source’s credibility.
Social media platforms should work on fact-checking mechanisms to debunk misleading content or disinformation narratives that can create unrest within the population.
Communities and states should open discussions with citizens to address potential concerns about elections and provide resources on the electoral process and voting counting system to reduce ontological insecurity.
State and local law enforcement agencies, such as the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), should collaborate with cybersecurity agencies to trace and monitor users associated with the spread of election-related misinformation and monitor online far-right and far-left extremist groups.
Businesses with potential associations with a political view remain vigilant during protests by boarding up windows, temporarily closing, and monitoring local updates to protect staff and property.
CTG assesses that the current threat climate is HIGH against President-elect Trump and Republican voters due to widespread narratives of election fraud and mobilization following the 2024 presidential election. Claims of election rigging on social media will very likely encourage protests by anti-Trump supporters and lone-wolf actions. Anti-Trump protests will very likely face far-right counterprotesters emboldened by the election results, leading to clashes. Limited content moderation policies on X and Telegram will very likely allow continued dissemination of conspiracy theories.
Analysis indicates that there is a HIGH PROBABILITY that anti-Trump misinformation will continue to spread on X, LIKELY eroding trust in the democratic process. The circulation of misinformation will VERY LIKELY incite anti-Trump protests around the country, VERY LIKELY seeking to reverse the outcome of the elections. Far-right groups will VERY LIKELY use these protests to push their cause by inciting violence and clashing with far-left groups. Ongoing resentment over the election results will LIKELY inspire extremists to acquire weapons, VERY LIKELY increasing the risk of violent confrontations between far-left and far-right groups, as well as law enforcement.
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[1] WASHINGTON, DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA, UNITED STATES by Sgt. Gabriel Silva licensed under Public Domain (The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.)
[2] @Espaking2, X, November 5, 2024, https://x.com/naima/status/1854329265187147976
[3] Ibid
[4] CTG Threat Hunter via Telegram
[5] Ibid
[6] @Espaking2, X, November 5, 2024, https://x.com/Espaking2/status/1854299716172832852
[7] @Espaking2, X, November 5, 2024, https://x.com/Espaking2/status/1854287209857221106
[8] @Espaking2, X, November 5, 2024, https://x.com/Espaking2/status/1854287363561726227
[9] How the AP is able to declare winners in states where polls just closed, AP, November 2024, https://apnews.com/article/election-votes-polls-close-race-calls-explain-78031598f95cb1c4feff5009792e5425
[10] Anti-Trump protests erupt in Philadelphia and Chicago, ‘Incredibly disappointed in Americans’, Hindustan Times, November 2024, https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/us-news/antitrump-protests-erupt-in-philadelphia-and-chicago-incredibly-disappointed-in-americans-101730958667367.html
[11] Threat Hunter on Telegram