November 3-9, 2022 | Issue 25 - NORTHCOM
Rhiannon Thomas, Jan García, NORTHCOM Team
Valentina Topatigh, Editor; Jennifer Loy, Chief of Staff
Mexico Map[1]
Date: November 4, 2022
Location: Cuautla, Morelos, Mexico
Parties involved: Mexican government; Mexican law enforcement; Morelos government; Mexican gangs; Mexican citizens
The event: Five women have been found dead in what officials believe to be organized crime disputes. Two showed hallmarks of gang killings, and the other three were found with a message from a gang leader claiming that the attacks were made against another gang. Official data showed Morelos had the third-highest rate of femicides between January and September of this year.[2]
Analysis & Implications:
Violence against women will almost certainly raise insecurity among Morelos citizens, with a roughly even chance of concerns resulting in demonstrations. Protesters will likely utilize social media to reach a larger audience, very likely resulting in human rights organizations pressuring the Morelos government to improve women’s security. The government will unlikely be able to improve security in the state due to cartel coercion, which is unlikely to result in cartel prosecution.
The Morelos government will very likely request federal support to tackle gang violence in the state, with a roughly even chance of receiving sufficient prolonged law enforcement aid. Law enforcement will very likely increase officer deployment in the next few days, likely resulting in increased arrests and reduced crime in the short term. Gang violence will unlikely reduce in the long term due to the uncertainty of prolonged aid, likely resulting in more femicides in the coming months and increasing cartel influence.
Date: November 6, 2022
Location: Arizona, USA
Parties involved: US government; former US President Donald Trump; US law enforcement; US election workers; US far-right supporters; US citizens
The event: Arizona’s election workers have faced at least 140 violent threats in the lead-up to the November midterm elections. Investigations into the threats showed links to election conspiracy theories promoted by former US President Donald Trump and their allies, such as fake ballots, rigged machines, and corrupt officials.[3]
Analysis & Implications:
Threats to election workers will very likely continue in the days following the election and almost certainly foster insecurity, with officials very likely demanding increased surveillance and security surrounding government buildings, electoral buildings, and polling stations. Increased law enforcement deployment in the coming days is very likely, with a significant law enforcement presence very likely to reduce insecurity and the chance of attacks after the election results. The increased deployment will unlikely resolve political tensions in the US in the long term, very likely resulting in further threats and attacks in the future.
Conspiracy theories online will very likely spread animosity among far-right supporters and increase existing political polarization in US society. Far-right supporters will very likely increase threats towards government officials in the event of a Democrat win, likely not accepting the results. Increased tensions will very likely result in confrontations between citizens with opposing views, almost certainly resulting in police interventions. Local governments will likely request state and federal support due to ongoing violence, with a significant law enforcement deployment very likely throughout the country.
[2] Five women found dead in violent Mexican state, Reuters, November 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/five-women-found-dead-violent-mexican-state-2022-11-04/
[3] 'Kill them': Arizona election workers face midterm threats, Reuters, November 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/kill-them-arizona-election-workers-face-midterm-threats-2022-11-06/