William Adams
Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor
June 4, 2024
(The Weekly Threat Report is based on the Daily Threat Activity Reports from May 27 to June 2, 2024, here is a trend analysis of the threats this week. The lists are in no particular order.)
Countries at Risk[1]
BLUF: The provided data reveals a concerning landscape of escalating conflicts, geopolitical tensions, election-related violence, climate change-induced disasters, and persistent cybersecurity threats. These are likely to have significant impacts on industries like aviation, energy, tourism, agriculture, mining, transportation, construction, technology, healthcare, and education. The most pressing threats include the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Russia's ongoing attacks on Ukraine, North Korea's provocative actions, and targeted killings in Mexico ahead of elections. These threats, combined with the growing challenges posed by climate change and the increasing frequency and sophistication of cyberattacks, underscore the need for heightened vigilance, preparedness, and collaboration among governments, organizations, and industries to mitigate risks and ensure the safety and security of civilians and critical infrastructure.
Based on the Daily Threat Activity Reports from May 27 to June 2, 2024, here is a trend analysis of the threats this week.
Top Threats of the Week:
1. Escalating violence and civilian casualties in ongoing conflicts, particularly in Israel-Palestine, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Myanmar.
2. Russia continues to attack Ukraine, including strikes on civilian infrastructure and attacks on civilians.
3. Terrorist threats and activities, including bomb threats in India, Al-Shabaab and ISIS clashes in Somalia, and targeted killings in Mexico.
4. North Korea has made provocative actions, including failed satellite launches, missile tests, and sending propaganda campaigns.
5. Climate change-related disasters, including deadly heatwaves have impacted various regions and industries.
6. Multiple cybersecurity threats have occurred, including hacking attempts against the Internet Archive, malware targeting Brazilian banks, and data breaches affecting millions of Americans.
Top Countries of Concern:
1. Israel - Violence is escalating and there are high civilian casualties in the offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
2. Ukraine - Ongoing Russian attacks target civilian infrastructure and civilians, causing mass casualties.
3. Democratic Republic of Congo - Ongoing violent clashes and attacks by the M23 rebel group, resulted in civilian deaths.
4. Myanmar - The military Junta is targeting civilians amidst fighting with opposition groups.
5. India - Multiple bomb threats targeted flights and public buildings, and there have been deadly heatwaves exacerbated by climate change.
6. North Korea - Provocative actions against South Korea included failed satellite launches, missile tests, and sending propaganda and trash balloons.
7. Mexico - There have been targeted killings and attacks on political candidates ahead of elections.
8. Somalia - There have been al-Shabaab and ISIS clashes, and ongoing al-Shabaab attacks against the local population.
9. United States - There have been cybersecurity threats, including data breaches affecting millions of Americans.
10. Russia - Ongoing attacks against Ukraine and threats of escalation, including nuclear threats have been made.
Top Counterterrorism Actions of the Week:
1. US and British airstrikes targeted Houthi rebel targets in Yemen in response to attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
2. Iraqi authorities executed eight people convicted of terrorism over links to the Islamic State group.
3. French security authorities foiled a plan to attack soccer events during the Paris Olympics.
4. International Coalition Forces and SDF conducted security operations targeting ISIS in Syria.
5. Regime forces in Syria attacked the positions of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in the western countryside of Hama.
6. Joint central and state forces in India conducted counter-insurgency operations in Manipur, recovering arms, ammunition, and explosives.
7. The United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) reinforced its presence in Kanyabayonga, Democratic Republic of Congo, to support the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (FARDC) against the M23 rebels.
8. Arrest of a man in Germany suspected of attempting to provide material support to ISIS.
9. Arrest of two alleged members of the Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP) in Manipur, India, along with the recovery of weapons and ammunition.
10. Capture of alleged members of the 'Gulf Clan' in Antioquia, Colombia, accused of pressuring communities and recruiting minors.
Based on the information provided in the Daily Threat Activity Reports from May 27 to June 2, 2024, several industries appear to be impacted by the reported threats:
1. Aviation
Multiple bomb threats targeted flights in India, causing evacuations and emergency landings.
2. Energy
Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, causing damage and power outages.
ISIS attack on an oil well in the northern countryside of Deir Ezzor, Syria.
3. Tourism
Deadly heatwaves in India and other parts of the world may impact tourist activities and travel plans.
French authorities foiled a plan to attack soccer events during the Paris Olympics, potentially impacting tourism.
4. Agriculture
Floods and landslides in Assam, India, affect over 3.5 lakh people across 11 districts and impact agricultural activities.
5. Mining
The collapse of a stone quarry in Mizoram, India, amid incessant rains, resulted in the death of ten people and several others missing.
6. Transportation
A bridge collapsed on the main route for getting aid and equipment to the Papua New Guinea landslide site, affecting rescue efforts.
Around ten people died and more than 60 others were injured in a road accident in Kavumu, Democratic Republic of Congo.
7. Construction
Multiple injuries were reported in a downtown Youngstown, Ohio, gas explosion at a building with apartments on the top floors.
8. Technology
Cybersecurity threats, including hacking attempts against the Internet Archive, malware targeting Brazilian banks, and data breaches affect millions of Americans.
9. Healthcare
Escalating violence in Israel's offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip may strain healthcare resources and infrastructure.
10. Education
Schools in MSAD 53 district of Maine are closed due to a social media threat.
Based on the current threats reported in the Daily Threat Activity Reports from May 27 to June 2, 2024, the following forecast analysis of future threats can be made:
1. Conflict escalation and civilian impact
The ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict will almost certainly lead to more civilian casualties and suffering, particularly in the Gaza Strip, prolonging the humanitarian crisis and the likelihood of famine.
The violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo perpetrated by the M23 rebel group will very likely continue to cause civilian deaths and displacement.
Myanmar's junta will very likely continue targeting civilians as they fight against opposition groups.
2. Geopolitical tensions and provocations
Russia will very likely continue its attacks on Ukraine, targeting civilian infrastructure and causing further loss of life.
North Korea will likely engage in more provocative actions, such as missile tests and propaganda campaigns, heightening tensions in the region.
3. Election-related violence
There is a roughly even chance that targeted killings and attacks on political candidates in Mexico will continue now that elections are over.
4. Climate change and natural disasters
Deadly heatwaves will almost certainly continue to affect India and other parts of the world. As climate change worsens, there is an increased risk of severe drought and wildfires, affecting food security.
Floods, landslides, and other natural disasters will cause further loss of life and damage to infrastructure in various regions, increasing the prevalence of water-borne disease and straining healthcare.
5. Terrorism and counterterrorism efforts
Clashes between al-Shabaab and ISIS in Somalia will unlikely lead to a significant reduction in their ability to carry out attacks.
There is a roughly even chance that international counterterrorism efforts, such as airstrikes and security operations, will significantly degrade the capabilities of terrorist groups like ISIS, Houthis, and HTS.
6. Cybersecurity threats
Cybersecurity threats, including data breaches, hacking attempts, and malware attacks, will very likely continue to target various industries and countries, with the United States being the primary target.
[1] Countries at Risk, by William Adams