September 5-11, 2024 | Issue 36 - NORTHCOM and Extremism Teams
Marta Vanti, Amelia Bell, Sabrina Bernardo, Hae Lim Park, Noah Kuttymartin, Daniela De Luca, Jacob Robison,
Clémence Van Damme, Samantha Mikulskis, Editor; Radhika Ramalinga Venkatachalam, Senior Editor
Mexican National Guards[1]
Date: September 5, 2024
Location: Culiacan, Sinaloa, Mexico
Parties involved: Mexico; Mexican government; Mexican National Guard (GN); Sinaloa law enforcement; Mexican organized crime syndicate specializing in drug trafficking and money laundering, Sinaloa Cartel; Sinaloa Cartel faction, Los Chapitos; Los Chapitos leader, Joaquín Guzmán López; Sinaloa Cartel faction, La Mayiza; La Mayiza leader, Ismael Zambada García; Culiacan residents
The event: Armed civilians and the Mexican National Guard clashed in downtown Culiacan, leading to a high-speed chase, gunfire, and the arrest of several suspects.[2] This incident is part of the recent increase in violence in the area, involving criminal groups such as the Sinaloa Cartel and its factions, La Mayzia and Los Chapitos.[3] The situation has escalated following the arrests of key figures such as Zambada and Guzmán López in July 2024 which has affected the region's drug trade.[4]
Analysis & Implications:
Violence in the region is likely to remain high, with Sinaloa cartel leaders Zambada and Guzmán López in custody and internal factions vying for control. La Mayiza and Los Chapitos will likely continue attacks against each other as well as Mexican authorities in an attempt to gain complete control of the Sinaloa Cartel and the region. Intergroup attacks likely increase the security risk, including using explosives against buildings and open-area gunfights. The factional infighting will likely include targeted assassinations and high-profile attacks, very likely amplifying violence in the region.
Sinaloa Cartel factions will likely target vulnerable populations in the area to recruit, leverage control, and confront state forces. Cartels in high-risk crime areas such as Culiacan will likely force local populations to choose sides between factions, likely as part of their broader strategy to maintain dominance. Sinaola’s history of criminal activity, cartel training camps, infighting and intimidation tactics, and police weaknesses, including corruption and infiltration, will likely increase civilian submission to the cartels and facilitate the recruitment of residents.
The escalation in the militarization of criminal groups, as seen in the clash in Culiacan, will likely lead to a significant increase in threats to public safety in the region. The weaponry and tactical methods employed by these factions in recent incidents, including the use of high-powered assault rifles, machine guns, and grenade launchers, likely indicate these groups can engage in more intense and widespread confrontations. This escalation will likely put law enforcement at a strategic disadvantage and increase the risk of civilian casualties, particularly in populated areas. The intensifying violence will likely strain public resources, hinder efforts to maintain order, and will likely erode trust in the government’s ability to ensure security, very likely destabilizing the region.
Date: September 9, 2024
Location: Washington DC, USA
Parties involved: USA; US Department of Justice (DOJ); US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI); Slovakia; Turkey; intergovernmental law enforcement organization, INTERPOL; cloud-based instant messaging company, Telegram Messenger; digital white-supremacist terrorist group, Terrorgram Collective (TGC); TGC leader, Dallas Humber; TGC leader, Matthew Allison; perpetrator in the 2022 Bratislava shooting, Juraj Krajčík; defendant charged with soliciting the destruction of New Jersey energy facilities, Andrew Takhistov; perpetrator of a stabbing incident in Turkey, Arda K.; TGC affiliates and members; LGBTQ+ groups; non-christian religious groups
The event: On Monday, the DOJ announced the arrest and indictment of Humber and Allison, alleging the pair led the TGC via Telegram channels and networks. Authorities conducted the arrest without incident and accused the detainees of encouraging hate crimes linked to death, plotting the murders of government officials, and creating guides on how to execute attacks against them and critical infrastructure. The DOJ investigation linked TGC to attacks and attempted assaults perpetrated by Krajčík in Slovakia in October 2022, the attempted destruction of a New Jersey energy facility by Takhistov in July 2024, and the quintuple stabbing by Arda K. in Turkey in August 2024.[5]
Analysis & Implications:
The arrest of Humber and Allison will very likely heighten the risk of retaliatory violence against federal officials, vulnerable communities, and essential infrastructure. TGC supporters will very likely intensify their radicalization, very likely considering the authorities' actions as unjust. This sense of unfairness will very likely escalate hostility, motivating individuals to engage in coordinated attacks while expanding the security risk to lone-wolf aggressions or small-scale but more frequent acts of violence. The target for these attacks will likely include government officials, key infrastructure such as energy facilities, and at-risk groups, such as LGBTQ+ and non-Christian groups.
There is a roughly even chance that TGC will dissolve, likely leading to the formation of one or more replacement collectives. Remaining affiliates with TGC very likely believe their Telegram channels have been compromised, likely choosing to decentralize and form new, smaller networks. Members will likely select certain subdivisions based on their preferred direction of TGC and the prioritization of certain extremist values, including racist or anti-government motivations. Affiliates will likely download most of the group's content to preserve their ideology and continue sharing it on new networks.
While the digital information on TGC's remaining members likely enables continued monitoring of chats and activity on Telegram or other platforms, the DOJ and FBI will likely face challenges given by the transnationality of the group. The increased digital presence of TGC and the members' likely utilization of virtual private networks (VPN) and geo-spoofing likely increases investigative agencies’ reliance on cyber surveillance and multinational, interagency collaboration. The arrest of additional TGC affiliates outside of the US will very likely require a high level of collaboration and support between the DOJ, the FBI, and national and transnational police forces such as INTERPOL.
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[1] Mexican National Guards, generated by a third party database
[2] Hitmen and National Guard face off in Culiacán; there are arrests, Infobae, 2024 https://www.infobae.com/mexico/2024/09/06/sicarios-y-guardia-nacional-se-enfrentan-a-balazos-en-culiacan-hay-detenido (translated by Google)
[3] Mexican military is attacked and roads blocked in Sinaloa state, authorities say, ABC News, 2024 https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/mexican-authorities-confirm-attacks-military-roads-blocked-northern-11326
[4] Leader of Mexico's Sinaloa drug cartel arrested in Texas, BBC News, 2024
[5] Leaders of Transnational Terrorist Group Charged with Soliciting Hate Crimes, Soliciting the Murder of Federal Officials, and Conspiring to Provide Material Support to Terrorists, US Department of Justice, 2024, https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/leaders-transnational-terrorist-group-charged-soliciting-hate-crimes-soliciting-murder