Gabriel Helupka, Sophia Ritscher, Benedetta Bisaccia, Megan Khalife, Isaiah Johnson, Lydia Baccino, Mia Sadler
Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor
August 23, 2023
Kuzhenkino Village in Russia[1]
Introduction On August 23, Russian authorities reported a private jet traveling from Moscow to Saint Petersburg crashed near Kuzhenkino Village in the Tver Region.[2] The passenger manifest listed the Wagner Group (Wagner) chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and senior commander Dmitry Utkin, along with eight others, with preliminary information indicating all on board were killed.[3] Unconfirmed Russian media reports suggested that Prigozhin and his allies had met with Russian Defense Ministry (MoD) officials.[4] Flight tracking data indicated that a second private jet with links to Prigozhin also traveled from Moscow toward Saint Petersburg, but later turned around and safely landed after the incident.[5] An unnamed Western official could not ascertain whether Prigozhin was onboard and reported that a Russian anti-aircraft missile system targeted the plane.[6] British defense sources say the plane was most likely carrying Prigozhin and the domestic intelligence agency the Federal Security Service (FSB) targeted it.[7] A Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel, Grey Zone, announced Prigozhin's death, claiming he died from unidentified "traitors to Russia."[8] There is currently no official confirmation of Prigozhin’s or Utkin’s death from Wagner and Russian authorities.[9] The alleged deaths will likely result in speculation regarding the nature of the crash, very likely reasserting Putin’s control within Russia and motivation to terminate relations with actors posing perceived threats to Russian interests. This likely centralizes the Kremlin’s authority, as Putin and senior Russian officials are likely to exploit Prigozhin's alleged death as a retaliatory tool to intimidate potential domestic rivals and showcase Putin's grip on power. Earlier on Wednesday, Russian state media reported the dismissal of General Sergei Surovikin, the former commander of Russia's forces in Ukraine, who is believed to have close ties to Prigozhin and was allegedly aware of the mutiny attempt.[10] This incident will likely alter leadership dynamics within Wagner and prompt members to assess their involvement in different conflicts, very likely influencing the geopolitical landscape in Russia and abroad.
Background
Utkin allegedly founded Wagner in 2014, with the PMC named after his former call sign “Vagner.”[11] His call sign is reportedly due to his favorable sentiments toward “the attributes and ideology” of Adolf Hitler and the Nazi regime.[12] Utkin served in the Russian military intelligence agency Glavnoye Razvedyvatelnoye Upravlenie (GRU) until 2013 and afterward commanded a special forces Spetsnaz unit as a lieutenant colonel.[13] The US and EU previously sanctioned Utkin for his senior leadership role within Wagner.[14]
Prigozhin, a former close ally of President Putin, owned and financed the private Russian paramilitary mercenary group (PMC) Wagner.[15] The group has been linked to neo-nazism and far-right ideologies as founding members were closely linked to the far-right Russian Imperial Movement.[16] Wagner is involved in operations globally, with a notable presence in Europe, Syria, and Africa. In Europe, Wagner is involved with the war in Ukraine. In 2014, Wagner backed pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine and is believed to have assisted Russian forces with the annexation of Crimea. Prior to the June 23rd mutiny that Prigozhin led, Wagner was fighting on behalf of Russia in Ukraine, spearheading Russian offensives in Bakhmut and elsewhere. In Syria, Wagner fighters have operated since 2015, collaborating with pro-government forces to secure oilfields and profit from recaptured from terrorist organizations like ISIS.[17] In Africa, Wagner secures military contracts to provide security and paramilitary services in exchange for access to valuable raw material resources like gold and diamonds.[18] This is often seen as a means for Wagner to exert political influence, promote Russian geopolitical interests, and safeguard regimes aligning with the Russian government.[19] International human rights organizations have accused Wagner of various human rights abuses during their operations in Africa.[20]
On June 23 and 24, Prigozhin led a mutiny with an estimated 5,000 soldiers,[21] which President Vladimir Putin said could have led the country into civil war and described Prigozhin as a “traitor.”[22] Prigozhin vowed to topple Russian military leadership, characterizing the operation as a “march for freedom” after ordering his troops to enter Russia.[23] Prigozhin accused the Russian military of killing many Wagner fighters in an airstrike the day before[24] and previously blamed them for a lack of ammunition in Ukraine for Wagner fighters.[25] Prigozhin’s rivalry with the Russian MoD escalated when the Russian MOD ordered Wagner fighters to sign contracts with the MoD or leave Ukraine leading up to the mutiny.[26] Wagner fighters coming from Ukraine took control of key military facilities in Rostov-on-Don before thousands of Wagner troops advanced toward Moscow, coming within 200 km of the capital. Prigozhin announced he would suspend their match and return to their camps in Ukraine to avoid spilling Russian blood. Later reports stated that Prigozhin brokered a deal with President Vladimir Putin through Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, resulting in Wagner relocating to Belarus.[27] Prigozhin has since made several public appearances in Russia and released a recruitment video for the Wagner group purportedly showing him in Africa on August 21.[28]
Analysis
The presumed deaths of Prigozhin and Utkin will almost certainly result in speculations about the nature of the plane crash, likely creating various narratives. There is a roughly even chance that Russian media will call the plane crash a terrorist attack or blame Ukrainian involvement in an attempt to justify continued fighting. It is unlikely the presumed deaths will have a significant impact on the war in Ukraine, as Russia will likely use this incident to justify its recent separation from Wagner. Pro-Russian social media accounts will very likely speculate that an explosive device was placed onboard, likely attempting to counter claims the plane was shot down. Wagner members will likely blame the Russian military for shooting down the plane, likely vowing revenge for Prigozhin’s death and attempting to reignite the mutiny. President Putin and senior Russian officials will unlikely dispute Prigozhin’s alleged death as retaliation, likely using it to intimidate others who may try to undermine Putin in the future. Putin will almost certainly aim to show that his sovereignty and grip on the Russian government is still robust, very likely seeking to curb potential domestic opposition and perceived betrayals.
The presumed deaths of Prigozhin and Utkin will very likely impact senior leadership in West Africa, likely resulting in a loss of extensive military expertise and front-facing leadership on morale, tactics, training, and strategy. These figures will likely attempt to consolidate power through increased operational focus on conflicts in the Sahel. Local Wagner commanders in West Africa will likely assert their authority over mining assets from Wager resource contracts, very likely resulting in tension with local juntas and community leaders regarding financial profits. Wagner’s leadership will very likely face internal divisions, as key figures within the group will likely compete for control over logistic infrastructure and political networks. They will very likely escalate narratives related to preserving security contracts with the juntas through the provision of training and resources, very likely motivated to display their commitment and strength regardless of the loss of their leader. This loss will likely create an opportunity for the Russian MoD to absorb Wagner assets like cargo ships and heavy weapons into Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu’s PMC Patriot. Patriot will likely attempt to fill the uncertainty left by Wagner’s leadership, structure, and operational efficiency.
Lukashenko will likely reevaluate his stance on allowing Wagner soldiers to remain in Belarus, very likely reflecting the limited authority he has through his alignment with Putin and the Russian state. Internal Troops of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the State Border Committee will very likely disperse groups of current or former Wagner members within Belarus and attempt to bar them from entering Russia in coordination with the Russian FSB. The Russian National Guard will likely place security forces along Belarusian and Ukrainian borders on high alert, likely preparing for potential retaliation from Wagner fighters. They will likely emphasize security readiness in Rostov-on-Don, likely wanting to prevent similar Wagner mutiny attempts. The Russian National Guard will likely maintain this heightened security posture until they assess how Wagner will react, likely expanding increased security to major cities. In the coming months, the FSB will likely track, and arrest lower-level officers of complicit Wagner leadership in the mutiny.
The chances of a credible Wagner retaliation will likely increase if senior Russian officials do not dispute speculation of a shoot-down. Wagner-affiliated Telegram channels will very likely sustain outrage over the presumed deaths of Prigozhin and Utkin, likely threatening to finish the mutiny attempt or enact revenge against the Russian MoD. Wagner soldiers will very likely increase such chatter if Putin attempts to designate a new leader.
Conclusion
The unresolved plane crash cause and the presumed, but unconfirmed, deaths of Prigozhin and Utkin have heightened uncertainty regarding Wagner's future and Russia's interests abroad. Widespread speculations and narratives will likely form, including potential claims of a terrorist attack, Ukrainian involvement, and causes. Prigozhin’s death will likely set a precedent for future mutinies, and send a message to potential political rivals that attempt to challenge senior Russian leadership.
The future of Wagner’s assets will very likely remain uncertain, presenting an opportunity for the Russian MoD to absorb or divide their assets. Shoigu will very likely have more direct control in future Russian PMC operations. The PMC known as Patriot, heavily associated with Shoigu, will very likely replace Wagner as the provider of security, intelligence, and executive protection services in the Middle East and West Africa. Due to close connections with the Russian MOD, Patriot PMC will very likely maintain its role for the foreseeable future.
Smaller, rival Russian PMCs will very likely attempt to solicit Wagner contracts in Libya, Mozambique, Mali, the Central African Republic, and Sudan. The lack of predictability in security arrangements and power dynamics will likely hinder the movements of aid workers, likely exacerbating the humanitarian situation in select African countries. Given Wagner’s expanding influence in several African nations, their presumed deaths and uncertainty over the Wagner group’s future will almost certainly result in increasingly fluctuating security situations in the previously mentioned countries.
The presumed deaths of Prigozhin and Utkin will likely signal a transitional period within the power dynamics within Russia and Russian interests abroad. Leadership transitions and internal divisions are likely as competing factions vie for control over logistical networks will likely result in new leaders, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and West Africa. These new leaders will likely have a direct impact on the group’s operations within this region, likely leading to a fluctuating security environment within former Wagner-controlled areas.
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) works to detect, deter, and defeat terrorism and will continue to monitor this situation for future developments. CTG’s Worldwide Analysis of Threats, Crimes, and Hazards (W.A.T.C.H) Officers will monitor the plane crash, activity from Wagner and other PMCs, and internal Russian political developments. In collaboration with EUCOM and Weapons and Tactics, CTG will analyze new information on Wagner and internal Russian developments to assess their geopolitical impacts. Our teams will remain on high alert, providing information via Flash Alerts or Imminent Warning Reports on our Counter Threat Center website.
[1] “Kuzhenkino Village” by Sophia Ritscher via Google Earth
[2] Wagner chief Prigozhin listed as passenger on plane that crashed with no survivors, Russian authorities say, Reuters, August 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ten-killed-private-jet-crash-north-moscow-tass-2023-08-23/
[3] Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin dies in plane crash in Russia, ABC News, August 2023, https://abcnews.go.com/International/wagner-group-leader-yevgeny-prigozhin-passenger-list-plane/story?id=102497445
[4] Wagner chief Prigozhin listed as passenger on plane that crashed with no survivors, Russian authorities say, Reuters, August 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ten-killed-private-jet-crash-north-moscow-tass-2023-08-23/
[5] Flight history for aircraft - RA-02748, FlightRadar24, August 2023, https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/ra-02748#
[6] Yevgeny Prigozhin in fatal plane crash, Russian officials say, Financial Times, August 2023, https://www.ft.com/content/812c9da3-80f2-4fe1-8fad-0b4441d1977a
[7] Yevgeny Prigozhin latest: Putin silent after Wagner boss ‘killed in plane crash’, BBC, August 2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-66599774
[8] Wagner chief Prigozhin listed as passenger on plane that crashed with no survivors, Russian authorities say, Reuters, August 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ten-killed-private-jet-crash-north-moscow-tass-2023-08-23/
[9] Putin Remains Silent on Crash of Plane Linked to Mercenary Leader, The New York Times, August 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/08/24/world/prigozhin-russia-ukraine-news
[10] A top Russian general linked to the head of a rebellious mercenary group is reportedly dismissed, AP, August 2023, https://apnews.com/article/russia-general-surovikin-dismissed-ukraine-wagner-036326ed0279a0c85600ef435e59a076
[11] Band of Brothers: The Wagner Group and the Russian State, Center for Strategic and International Studies, September 2020, https://www.csis.org/blogs/post-soviet-post/band-brothers-wagner-group-and-russian-state
[12] Russia's Paramilitary Mercenaries Emerge From The Shadows, Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, December 2016, https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-paramilitary-mercenaries-emerge-from-the-shadows-syria-ukraine/28180321.html
[13] Band of Brothers: The Wagner Group and the Russian State, Center for Strategic and International Studies, September 2020, https://www.csis.org/blogs/post-soviet-post/band-brothers-wagner-group-and-russian-state
[14] Treasury Sanctions the Head of the Wagner Group in Mali, United States Treasury Department, May 2023, https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1502
[15] What is Russia’s Wagner Group and Where are it’s fighters, BBC, August 2023, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-60947877
[16] Moscow Turns U.S. Volunteers Into New Bogeyman in Ukraine, Foreign Policy, March 2022, https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/15/russia-mercenaries-volunteers-ukraine/
[17] Putin’s Shadow Warriors Stake Claim to Syria’s Oil, Foreign Policy, May 2023, https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/05/17/putin-shadow-warriors-stake-claim-syria-oil-energy-wagner-prigozhin-libya-middle-east/
[18] Ibid
[19] Ibid
[20] Mali: New Atrocities by Malian Army, Apparent Wagner Fighters, Human Rights Watch, July 2023, https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/07/24/mali-new-atrocities-malian-army-apparent-wagner-fighters
[21] What is Russia's Wagner group, and where are its fighters?, BBC, August 2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60947877
[22] Yevgeny Prigozhin: 'Ten killed' in private jet crash in Russia with Wagner boss on board, Sky News, August 2023, https://news.sky.com/story/amp/ten-killed-in-private-jet-crash-north-of-moscow-wagner-leader-yevgeny-prigozhin-on-passenger-list-12946006
[23] Russia: Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin calls halt to Moscow advance, BBC, June 2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66006860
[24] Rebel Russian mercenaries turn back short of Moscow 'to avoid bloodshed', Reuters, June 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/wagner-head-suggests-his-mercenaries-headed-moscow-take-army-leadership-2023-06-24/
[25] Wagner Chief Again Slams Russian Defense Ministry; Accuses Soldiers Of Fleeing, Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, May 2023, https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-prigozhin-wagner-defence-ministry-ammnition-fleeing/32403426.html
[26] Wagner, Prigozhin, Putin, and Shoigu: Bitter Rivalries that led to Rebellion, BBC, June 2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66013532
[27] Russian mercenary boss Prigozhin to move to Belarus under Wagner deal, Kremlin says, Reuters, June 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-mercenary-boss-prigozhin-move-belarus-under-wagner-deal-kremlin-says-2023-06-24/
[28] Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin presumed dead after Russia plane crash, BBC, August 2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66599733
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