October 3-9 | Issue 40 - NORTHCOM and Extremism Teams
Daniela De Luca, Amelia Bell, Sabrina Bernardo, Marta Vanti, Jacob Robison, Hae Lim Park
Sophia Hahn, Editor; Radhika Ramalinga Venkatachalam, Senior Editor
Police Patrolling Street[1]
Date: October 3, 2024
Location: Culiacan, Sinaloa, Mexico
Parties involved: Mexico; President of Mexico Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo; Sinaloa State Governor Ruben Rocha; Mexican elected government, President Sheinbaum Pardo's new administration; Mexican Army; Mexican law enforcement; Sinaloan local police; Culiacan local police; Mexican organized crime syndicate specializing in drug trafficking and money laundering, Sinaloa cartel; Sinaloa cartel faction, Los Chapitos; Sinaloa cartel faction, La Mayiza; Sinaloa cartel faction, Los Cabrera; La Mayiza faction leader, Ismael Zambada Sicairos, alias Mayito Flaco; Los Cabrera alleged leader, José Luis, alias JL or El 03; Los Cabrera alleged leader, Alejandro Cabrera Sarabia, alias El 02; social media platforms, TikTok, X, and WhatsApp; citizens in Sinaloa
The event: Residents reported narcomantas[2], in the form of banners attached to bridges across the city, directed at Sheinbaum, who was recently elected into power. Los Chapitos allegedly produced these messages amid escalating hostilities with rival factions La Mayiza and Los Cabrera. Los Chapitos accused La Mayiza of being responsible for the violence in the region and suggested that the latter has an alliance with Los Cabrera members. The banners claim Luis and Sarabia are founders and leaders of Los Cabrera, operating in Durango and Zacatecas under the Zambada family.[3]The banners appeared after Rocha suspended the local Culiacan police force in September, seizing and inspecting their weapons due to distrust and the wave of gun violence in the region.[4]
Analysis & Implications:
Los Chapitos’ use of narcomantas to convey their message is likely a calculated move to provoke a reaction from law enforcement, likely challenging the response of Sheinbaum's new administration against organized crime. The timing of these banners is very likely tied to Sheinbaum’s recent election, as Sinaloa cartel factions have historically used this method to intimidate state forces. The choice of a public message likely signals the intention to test state forces limits, likely aiming to strain law enforcement resources and capabilities while undermining public trust. Los Chapitos will very likely seek to strengthen their authority over local police and the army in Sinaloa and is likely utilizing the recent suspension of local police to their advantage.
The public visibility of such banners likely signifies power and acts as a calculated signal, likely inviting both recognition and competition among rival factions. Such displays will likely trigger a feedback loop, where the aggressive tactics of one group are likely perceived as necessitating a response from others. This interplay likely reflects a strategic awareness by criminal networks on how such communication methods can likely shift perceptions of authority, fear, and power hierarchies. As Sinaloa cartel factions respond to these evolving tactics, they will likely leverage the physical and psychological impact of the violence to stay relevant and competitive in the escalating rivalry.
Social media platforms such as TikTok, X, and WhatsApp will very likely facilitate the spread of narcomantas and cartel messages, likely influencing citizens' submission to the cartels and furthering their recruitment. The dissemination of these messages will likely increase online recruitment into cartel factions, likely incentivizing cross-faction violence due to promises of wealth, power, and status to citizens. Public messaging efforts through narcomantas and social media will likely reinforce a sense of shared identity among new recruits within the affiliation process.
Date: October 5, 2024
Location: Concordia, Sinaloa, Mexico
Parties involved: Mexico; Mexican government; Mexican Secretariat of National Defense (SEDENA); Mexican Armed Forces; Sinaloa law enforcement; Culiacan law enforcement; Concordia civilians; Mexican organized crime syndicate specializing in drug trafficking and money laundering, Sinaloa cartel; Sinaloa cartel faction, Los Chapitos; Sinaloa cartel faction, La Mayiza
The event: Armed civilians attacked SEDENA units on Saturday while they were conducting preventive patrols in El Batel and Potrerillos, Concordia. The assault was countered with the assistance of a Mexican Armed Forces helicopter, marking the second consecutive day of air support utilization in response to escalating cartel violence in the region.[5] This incident follows a trend of increased violence and military activity in Sinaloa, where Sinaloa cartel factions, particularly Los Chapitos and La Mayiza, are engaged in territorial disputes.[6] The suspension of about 1,000 local Culiacan police officers complicated the security situation, as the Mexican Army suspects irregularities among Culiacan law enforcement.[7]
Analysis & Implications:
The escalation of violence in Sinaloa will likely prompt a more robust and sustained military presence in the region. The Mexican government’s response will likely involve continued air support and active ground operations, likely indicating a strategic shift aimed at countering cartel influence. This response will likely lead to prolonged conflicts, as cartels will likely react violently to increased military pressure, likely resulting in a cycle of retaliatory attacks and countermeasures.
The Sinaloa cartel factions will likely rapidly adapt to an increased military presence and response, likely planning and executing further complex attacks methodically. Members of the Sinaloa cartel will likely create plans involving the destruction of Mexican Armed Forces helicopters, likely including direct assaults and covert operations such as arson or rigged explosives. Additional tactics will likely include the increased frequency and diversified locations of attacks, such as simultaneously carrying out two attacks on military units in different locations. Simultaneous engagements likely increase the difficulty of effective and timely responses, and information and resource management.
The collaboration between SEDENA and the Mexican Armed Forces in responding to cartel violence, such as the helicopter-assisted counterattack, likely underscores the government’s increasing reliance on military operations to restore and maintain security. This cooperation will very likely be essential given the indefinite suspension of hundreds of Culiacan police officers. The distrust of local police will likely push both the government and civilians to rely primarily on military forces for security. Cartels and their factions, such as those within the Sinaloa cartel, including Los Chapitos and La Mayiza, will likely seek to exploit the reliance on the military by expanding their influence and continuing attacks against military units.
[1] Policia, generated by a third party database
[2] It is a Spanish term used to indicate banners or messages displayed by drug cartels in public places to convey warnings, threats, declarations, or challenges to rival gangs or the authorities.
[3] Aparecen narcomantas de La Chapiza con un mensaje para Sheinbaum en Culiacán: “Sigan mandando carne de cañón”Infobae, October 2024, https://www.infobae.com/mexico/2024/10/03/aparecen-narcomantas-de-la-chapiza-con-un-mensaje-para-sheinbaum-en-culiacan-sigan-mandando-carne-de-canon/ (translated by Google)
[4] Police in a cartel-dominated Mexican city are pulled off the streets after army takes their guns, AP, September 2024, https://apnews.com/article/mexico-drug-cartel-sinaloa-violence-3b6765e9cc66feada673654bcd6055e4
[5] Sujetos armados atacan a militares en Concordia, Sinaloa; repelen la agresión con ayuda de un helicóptero de la Sedena, Infobae, October 2024, https://www.infobae.com/mexico/2024/10/06/sujetos-armados-atacan-a-militares-en-concordia-sinaloa-repelen-la-agresion-con-ayuda-de-un-helicoptero-de-la-sedena/ (translated by Google)
[6] A Cold War Is Raging Inside the Sinaloa Cartel Following El Mayo’s Capture, InSight Crime, August 2024, https://insightcrime.org/news/cold-war-raging-inside-sinaloa-cartel-following-el-mayo-capture/
[7] Police in a cartel-dominated Mexican city are pulled off the streets after army takes their guns, AP, September 2024, https://apnews.com/article/mexico-drug-cartel-sinaloa-violence-3b6765e9cc66feada673654bcd6055e4