January 9-15, 2025 | Issue 1 - AFRICOM and EUCOM
Camilla Raffaelli, Alberto Grosselli, Anna Leda, Favour Godwill, Itamar Raizman, Leon Kille, Jacqueline Heier
Samantha Mikulskis, Angelina Sammarco, James Raggio, Editor; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor
Political Meeting[1]
Date: January 9, 2025
Location: Vienna, Austria
Parties involved: EU; Russia; Austria; Austrian government; Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ); Austrian People's Party (ÖVP); ÖVP leader Christian Stocker; Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPÖ); non-majority Austrian political parties; pro-EU political parties; anti-FPÖ protesters; Austrian military; Austrian police
The event: The Austrian far-right FPÖ announced it would begin coalition talks to form the country’s first FPÖ-led government.[2]
Analysis & Implications:
The coalition talks will very likely either fail or lead to the creation of a government where FPÖ pro-Russia policies will be enacted, as the stance on Russia almost certainly represents the main ideological difference between the FPÖ and the ÖVP. The FPÖ and the ÖVP very likely realize the FPÖ’s powerful negotiating position, signaling that the FPÖ will likely force its position on Russia by threatening the organization of a new general election. Stocker will likely accept the FPÖ’s foreign policies in exchange for domestic policy concessions, as a new election will almost certainly see the FPÖ significantly increase its seat count in the Parliament and the ÖVP lose. Stocker will very likely see no other alternatives, as a coalition with the smaller parties in the Parliament would not guarantee a majority, and the talks with the SPÖ have almost no chance of restarting.
An FPÖ-led government will likely create an encouraging environment for pro-Russian narratives in Austria, with a roughly even chance of new FPÖ-implemented policies to avoid EU sanctions against Russia. This shift will likely amplify preexisting Russian propaganda efforts within Austria, very likely leveraging the FPÖ’s platform to spread pro-Kremlin narratives and undermining trust in EU institutions. Austria’s strategic communication efforts, such as anti-disinformation campaigns and debunking programs, will very likely face significant setbacks, as there is a roughly even chance that the government will deprioritize initiatives to combat Russian influence operations.
An FPÖ-led government will very likely adopt a more eurosceptic stance and strengthen ties with Moscow, likely deepening ideological divides, and alienating moderate and progressive segments of the population. The sudden political switch will very likely leave pro-EU and progressive groups feeling increasingly dissatisfied, separated, and marginalized from the government, no longer representing their values and interests. New FPÖ policies will likely lead to more radicalized groups opposing the far-right administration, escalating their actions into confrontations. The growing unrest and the administration’s challenges of maintaining stability will likely lead to increased police and military presence, eroding public trust in institutions and fostering a climate of concerns and uncertainty.
Date: January 11, 2025
Location: Tungar Kara, Zamfara State, Nigeria
Parties involved: Nigeria; Nigerian government; Nigerian military; Nigerian Air Force (NAF); the Chief of the Air Staff (CAS), Air Marshal Hasan Abubakar; Director of Coordination and Cooperation (DCC) in the Civil-Military Relations Branch of NAF Headquarters; local self-defense groups; insurgent groups; Nigerian civilians; vulnerable Nigerian communities; Nigerian criminal gangs (bandits); international humanitarian organizations; UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA); human rights organizations; international non-governmental human rights organization, Amnesty International
The event: A Nigerian military airstrike mistakenly targeted local self-defense forces in Zamfara State, killing at least 16 civilians.[3]
Analysis & Implications:
This mistaken identification very likely underlines NAF’s operational shortages such as ineffective coordination between the Nigerian military and local self-defense groups, very likely resulting in continued misidentifications, operational errors, and failure to neutralize actual threats. Poor communication and mistrust between these entities will likely result in misidentification of targets, almost certainly worsening the risk of civilian casualties. This disconnect will likely embolden bandits to exploit gaps in the security framework, very likely increasing attacks on vulnerable communities while destabilizing security efforts. Civilian harm caused by these misidentifications will likely deepen mistrust between affected communities and the military, likely complicating efforts to combat banditry in Zamfara and surrounding regions.
The Nigerian military’s inability to distinguish between insurgent groups and civilians will very likely result in increased violence, likely challenging governance, and emboldening bandits. Misidentifications and erroneous airstrikes will very likely alienate local populations as civilians will likely view the government as causing harm, likely undermining their confidence in the government’s ability to tackle bandits. Vulnerable communities will likely reduce their willingness to cooperate with or support military efforts due to undermined confidence in the military’s effectiveness, likely perceiving security operations as a threat. The Nigerian military’s mistakes will likely question the Nigerian government's legitimacy, as civilians likely see authorities as unable to provide security effectively.
The CAS and NAF will very likely come under scrutiny from international organizations and human rights groups following the incident. Human rights organizations, such as Amnesty International, will very likely question the NAF’s operational and moral conduct, very likely citing previous fatal incidents against civilians as proof of recurring operational standards deficiencies. These organizations will almost certainly demand justice for the victims and legal and financial concessions from the DCC, very likely hoping to achieve compensation for the victims’ families and push for systemic reforms in the NAF. OCHA will very likely condemn attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure, likely warning the Nigerian government and military about the negative societal and economic implications of internal displacement if more people lose their homes in airstrikes.
Date: January 14, 2025
Location: Karlsruhe, Baden-Württemberg State, Germany
Parties involved: Germany; German Parliament, Bundestag; far-right German political party Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD); AfD’s Presidential Candidate, Alice Weidel; AfD Karlsruhe Member of Parliament, Marc Bernhard; Karlsruhe Criminal Police; German domestic intelligence agency, Bundesamt fur Verfassungsschutz (BfV); left-leaning political opposition and protesters; German civil society; leftist advocacy groups in Germany; migrants
The event: The Karlsruhe Criminal Police are investigating the AfD for possible incitement to hatred after the party’s local chapter distributed fake deportation plane tickets promoting the mass migrants’ repatriation.[4]
Analysis & Implications:
The AfD will very likely disregard the criminal police investigations and likely leverage them in the federal election campaign. They will almost certainly continue denying any criminal intent or illegal actions in their deportation ticket campaign, very likely continuing to claim that the election advertising targeted all segments of German society equally to counter accusations of inciting hatred. Local AfD spokespeople in the Bundestag, such as Bernhard, will almost certainly continue defending their campaign by vaguely referencing articles from the German Constitution concerning freedom of speech and electoral campaigning. There is a roughly even chance that the AfD Karlsruhe will exploit the police investigations as an example of the alleged authorities’ oppression of alternative political opinions in the Federal Republic, very likely to galvanize their support base, create a narrative of victimization, and further heightened political rhetoric.
Left-oriented citizens will very likely pressure federal authorities such as the BfV to accelerate and deepen its investigation into the possible AfD designation as an extremist organization, likely aiming to hamper the party’s regional operability and tarnish its image ahead of the February elections. While authorities will likely look at the event as a possible act of racial hatred and investigate, a complete ban on the party remains very unlikely. There is a roughly even chance that leftist political opposition and protesters will begin questioning German law enforcement’s objectivity as the criminal police investigation unfolds, very likely accusing them of right-wing bias.
The investigation into AfD will likely generate responses from liberal German society, very likely underscoring the prevailing societal resistance to far-right ideologies and exclusionary narratives that challenge democratic values. The criminal investigation will very likely contribute to an increasing leftist resistance campaign against the AfD. Far-left campaigners will likely organize large-scale demonstrations against future AfD party conferences and public appearances of Weidel in large cities, such as Berlin and Hamburg. Advocacy groups countering extremist views will almost certainly increase their efforts alongside the criminal investigation by launching public awareness campaigns, hosting educational forums, and leveraging social media to expose the dangers of far-right ideologies.
[1] Shaking hands, generated by a third party database
[2] Austria's far-right led coalition talks set to begin, thousands protest, Reuters, January 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/austrias-far-right-led-coalition-talks-set-begin-thousands-protest-2025-01-09/
[3]16 Civilians Killed In Nigerian Military Error, Barron’s, January 2025, https://www.barrons.com/news/16-civilians-killed-in-nigerian-military-error-17592c0a?refsec=topics_afp-news
[4] 20 Anzeigen gegen "Abschiebetickets" der AfD in Karlsruhe erstattet, Südwestrundfunk (SWR), January 2025,